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  U.S. General Discussion (Moderators: The Dowager Mod, Abolish ICE, Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu, Utilitarian Governance)
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Poll
Question: How Puerto Rico will vote if statehood is granted
#1
Blue
#2
Red
#3
Purple (Florida edition)
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Partisan results


Author Topic: -  (Read 1956 times)
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yanebot
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« on: September 26, 2020, 12:20:04 PM »
« edited: November 09, 2022, 11:21:08 AM by Name »

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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2020, 12:21:45 PM »

Probably Lean D, with Republicans having chances.
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Tokugawa Sexgod Ieyasu
Nathan
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« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2020, 12:27:54 PM »

I agree with the received wisdom that it would be solidly Democratic on the national level, at least under the pro-Trump/anti-Trump alignment. It'd be much more competitive in statewide races, as so many states are.
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7,052,770
Harry
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« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2020, 12:32:57 PM »


This, although if they vote for statehood in November and Republicans fight really hard to keep them from becoming a state, it could end up being Safe D in response.

If it votes for statehood, Biden wins, and Democrats take the Senate, PR will be a state in 2021. It will be up to Republicans to determine how resentful Puerto Ricans are of their party.
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Wakie77
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« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2020, 01:55:51 PM »

I suspect they would start as Blue and lean Purple.  Had it not been for Trump's blatant neglect and racist attitude towards them they actually would have leaned Red with a strong Catholic contingent being anti-abortion.

Buuuuuuuut Donny fixed that.
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jaymichaud
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« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2020, 01:58:32 PM »

Aren't the ones in America super leftist, generally?
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Wakie77
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2020, 02:23:23 PM »

Aren't the ones in America super leftist, generally?

The ones?  Which "ones"?
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
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« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2020, 02:38:20 PM »

Aren't the ones in America super leftist, generally?
Puerto Ricans that have been living in the mainland for generations and Puerto Ricans directly from the island of Puerto Rico are different (at least politically).

Also, "leftist" is not really the right term. Stateside Puerto Ricans vote overwhelmingly for the Democrats. However, voting for Democrats doesn't necessarily make a person "leftist".
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #8 on: September 26, 2020, 02:47:53 PM »

Here in Atlas, your poll results are going to be skewed.
You should have used words other than "blue" and "red" in your options.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2020, 02:51:56 PM »

I think PR would basically be another (modern-day) NM: generally Likely D, but certain circumstances could definitely lead it to vote for a Republican here & there.
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Dereich
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« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2020, 03:09:18 PM »

I'd assume that the PNP and the PDP would stay as the primary political parties in Puerto Rico and that they'll stay at the competitive parity they're at now. No real reason for the existing political structure, with its own issues and personalities that don't align with the GOP or Democrats, to subsume itself into the mainland one.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2020, 03:54:46 PM »

Blue
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2020, 05:10:26 PM »

Presidential: Lean/Likely D

Senate: 1 R/1 D

House: 3 D/2 R/2 Tossup
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BigSerg
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« Reply #13 on: September 26, 2020, 05:31:39 PM »

2024: Safe D
2028: Tossup
2032 : Lean R
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Trends Are Fake
Stuart98
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« Reply #14 on: September 26, 2020, 07:32:04 PM »

Presidential: Lean/Likely D

Senate: 1 R/1 D

House: 3 D/2 R/2 Tossup
PR will probably have only 4 house seats, maybe five.
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #15 on: September 26, 2020, 11:37:39 PM »

Inverse Montana.

Safe D at the presidential level except for massive landslides, but very competitive at the state level.

Probably very elastic. It's possibly more socially conservative than any current state, so that could create some interesting effects.
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #16 on: September 27, 2020, 05:08:15 AM »

President: Likely D
Senate: Lean D
House: 3D, 1R
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Former President tack50
tack50
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« Reply #17 on: September 27, 2020, 05:31:57 AM »

I'd assume that the PNP and the PDP would stay as the primary political parties in Puerto Rico and that they'll stay at the competitive parity they're at now. No real reason for the existing political structure, with its own issues and personalities that don't align with the GOP or Democrats, to subsume itself into the mainland one.

PR will still be forced to vote for Dems or Republicans for president (unless they always vote for a home indy with the hope of playing kingmaker)

However for everything downballot yeah this will apply

Common wisdom and current affiliations would suggest the PDP would caucus 100% with Democrats and the PNP mostly with Republicans but with a large Democratic leaning minority

So overall:
President: Safe D
Downballot: de Facto Lean D; in practice more like "Titanium Indy"
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Samof94
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« Reply #18 on: September 27, 2020, 06:27:21 AM »

It would likely be D at the Presidential level but swing at the state level. Why would the GOP be popular in a Spanish speaking state?
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CivicParticipant
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« Reply #19 on: September 27, 2020, 02:03:39 PM »

Likely Democratic but if the Rs are moderate it could have a chance to vote for the GOP.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #20 on: September 27, 2020, 02:15:56 PM »
« Edited: September 27, 2020, 02:31:05 PM by Skill and Chance »

Initially safe Dem, but with serious West Virginia potential in the medium/long term.
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You Don’t Mess With The Zohran
morgieb
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« Reply #21 on: September 27, 2020, 08:22:31 PM »

As a long-term Atlas member, naming the parties by colour is bad and confusing.
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YE
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« Reply #22 on: September 27, 2020, 09:02:24 PM »

Blue presidentially and in terms of party registration but it could be idiosyncratic downballot in a way that helps Republicans. Also wouldn't expect socially liberal Democrats to do well there.
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dotard
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« Reply #23 on: September 27, 2020, 10:17:13 PM »

D leaning on the pres level but more competitive in other offices.
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Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner
Jalawest2
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« Reply #24 on: September 27, 2020, 11:14:39 PM »

Puerto Rico is way more socially conservative than the country as Spanish speakers who are distant from hegemonic American culture .
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