Models starting to converge (update 10/17) (user search)
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  Models starting to converge (update 10/17) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Models starting to converge (update 10/17)  (Read 2551 times)
GeorgiaModerate
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« on: September 26, 2020, 08:19:51 AM »
« edited: October 17, 2020, 09:46:49 AM by GeorgiaModerate »
As of this morning (9/26), here are Biden's and Trump's chances of winning in each model:

Economist: 84-15
DDHQ: 83.5-15.9
JHK: 79.4-20.6
538: 77-23
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2020, 08:47:52 AM »
Quote from: Non Swing Voter on September 26, 2020, 08:46:15 AM
is that the highest 538 has ever been for Biden?

It briefly ticked up to 78 for a few hours earlier this week, but otherwise 77 is the highest value since they launched it.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2020, 06:05:20 PM »
Current numbers, change for Biden from initial post:

Economist: 85-14 (+1)
DDHQ: 80.4-19.0 (-3.1)
JHK: 79.7-20.3 (+0.3)
538: 78-22 (+1)

Weird that DDHQ has moved in the opposite direction from the others.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #3 on: September 30, 2020, 05:39:53 PM »
Current numbers, change for Biden from two days ago:

Economist: 87-13 (+2)
DDHQ: 82.2-17.3 (+1.8
JHK: 81.7-18.4 (+2.0)
538: 78-21 (no change for Biden, but Trump lost 1 point)

I plan to update this every couple of days until the election.  If anyone has other models to add, feel free to suggest them.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4 on: October 04, 2020, 06:27:45 PM »
Current models, changes from last update (Sep. 30):

Economist: 89-11 (+2/-2)
DDHQ: 82.2-17.2 (nc/-0.1)
JHK: 81.4-18.6 (-0.3/+0.2)
538: 81-19 (+3/-2)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: October 06, 2020, 05:52:34 PM »
Today's probabilities, with change since last update (Oct. 4):

Economist: 90-10 (+1/-1)
JHK: 86.6-13.3 (+5.2/-5.3)
538: 83-17 (+2/-2)
DDHQ: 79.9-19.5 (-2.3/+2.3)

I don't know what's going on with DDHQ.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2020, 12:24:05 PM »
Current percentages, with changes from last update (10/6):

Economist: 91-9 (+1/-1)
JHK: 86.4-13.6 (-0.2/+0.3)
538: 85-15 (+2/-2)
DDHQ: 81.3-18.1 (+1.4/-1.4)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #7 on: October 11, 2020, 04:33:59 PM »
Today's values, with changes from last update - Oct. 8:

Economist: 92-8 (+1/-1)
JHK: 87.3-12.7 (+0.9/-0.9)
538: 86-14 (+1/-1)
DDHQ: 83.6-15.9 (+2.3/-2.2)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #8 on: October 17, 2020, 09:46:56 AM »
Today's values, with changes from last update (Oct. 11):

Economist: 91-9 (-1/+1)
JHK: 88.1-11.9 (+0.8/-0.Cool
538: 87-12 (+1/-2)
DDHQ: 85.9-13.6 (+2.3/-2.3)
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #9 on: October 17, 2020, 09:51:27 AM »
Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on October 17, 2020, 09:47:33 AM
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on October 17, 2020, 09:46:56 AM
Today's values, with changes from last update (Oct. 11):

Economist: 91-9 (-1/+1)
JHK: 88.1-11.9 (+0.8/-0.Cool
538: 87-12 (+1/-2)
DDHQ: 85.9-13.6 (+2.3/-2.3)

What's the methodology behind Cool?

That's the cool people vote.  Clearly Trump is losing ground with them.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #10 on: October 17, 2020, 11:59:19 AM »
Quote from: The Mikado on October 17, 2020, 11:56:45 AM
So how does JHK manage to consistently stay in between 538 and Economist?

Economist and 538 are Papa and Mama Bear, while JHK is Goldilocks (....just right.)
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