Models starting to converge (update 10/17)

[ProgressiveModerate]

This makes sense. As election day approaches, uncertainty will begin to narrow in, and therefore, models like 538 which once had high uncertainty, and models like the Economists, which were always pretty confident, will begin to converge. My model also falls in this range with Biden at an 83% chance of victory, but if I used the uncertainty from 2 months ago that number is closer to 70%. I'll be curious to see what the uncertainty is for 538's model by election day, because to me, it still seems a bit high. I'm also curious what fundementals in JHK's model make Trump slightly outperform polls; the economy is bad, Biden has raised and spent more money than Trump, polling suggests that Trump has more soft support and that undecides lean slightly towards Biden, ect. Always appreciate the models though, and it'll be interesting to see how they hold up come November.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Current models, changes from last update (Sep. 30):

Economist: 89-11 (+2/-2)
DDHQ: 82.2-17.2 (nc/-0.1)
JHK: 81.4-18.6 (-0.3/+0.2)
538: 81-19 (+3/-2)

Funny how on a state by state level, 538 went from being the most bullish on Trump to now the most bullish on Biden. Obviously, as we well know their model has higher uncertainty, so it makes sense they still give Biden the lowest chance, but it's just interesting

[ProgressiveModerate]

You can’t model this election as no one can possibly predict COVID election turnout. We all know this - stop lying to yourself.

That's why I decided to use a t-distribution for my model; it makes the tails on the range of the outcome a bit fatter, hence why Biden still has a 0.02% chance in WY and Trump has a 0.05% chance in NY, unlike other models.

Here is the link to the current probabilities: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1HLtdIjLW05pzDwXz0aneLRsg8Jdg2x8JaBtkodOCf_8/edit?usp=sharing

Remember; a model is just a good estimate based on the available data, and while it isn't perfect, does offer a purely statistical analysis on the picture of the race

[ProgressiveModerate]

Today's probabilities, with change since last update (Oct. 4):

Economist: 90-10 (+1/-1)
JHK: 86.8-13.3 (+5.2/-5.3)
538: 83-17 (+2/-2)
DDHQ: 79.9-19.5 (-2.3/+2.3)

I don't know what's going on with DDHQ.

It seems they're model doesn't have it so taht the uncertainty decreases as election day approaches

[ProgressiveModerate]

So how does JHK manage to consistently stay in between 538 and Economist?

Basically the same meathadology, just has an uncertainty that is right on the middle