I hate to be "that guy", but for the record what did the models look like for Hillary at this time in 2016?
At this far from the election? 538 had Clinton at 77% chance to win. She'd peak at 85% chance to win about a week later before falling to ~65% and then rebounding to the 71% she ended up at on election day.
I mean, after 2016 it's likely all these models are far more cautious (thanks to the shock Trump win), so it's really comparing apples to oranges. Hence why there aren't any 99% Biden forecasts despite conditions being objectively better for him than Hillary.
