Models starting to converge (update 10/17) (user search)
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  Models starting to converge (update 10/17) (search mode)
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Author Topic: Models starting to converge (update 10/17)  (Read 2564 times)
Tintrlvr
Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,311


« on: October 05, 2020, 06:42:18 AM »

I hate to be "that guy", but for the record what did the models look like for Hillary at this time in 2016?

At this far from the election? 538 had Clinton at 77% chance to win. She'd peak at 85% chance to win about a week later before falling to ~65% and then rebounding to the 71% she ended up at on election day.

As others noted, though, it’s not an apples-to-apples comparison, as the 2016 538 model was much more confident generally. Plug its polls into the 2020 model and you’d probably get around 65% odds right now (and if you put today’s polls into the 2016 model, you’d get close to 90% odds).
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