Will the "Trump will rig it" talk decrease turnout?
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  Will the "Trump will rig it" talk decrease turnout?
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Author Topic: Will the "Trump will rig it" talk decrease turnout?  (Read 580 times)
Pericles
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« on: September 26, 2020, 04:39:29 AM »
« edited: September 26, 2020, 04:48:46 AM by President Pericles »

Some of the rumors that Trump will rig the election, like that Republican state legislatures will outright overturn a Biden win, seem pretty outlandish. Certainly Republicans will use lots of dirty tricks, and in a very close election the outcome might not be fair and legitimate. However, the risk of the election being rigged for Trump is probably overrated.

The worry though is that the talk about this will suppress Democratic turnout, and indeed is supposed to. Why would the Trump campaign leak in advance their sinister plot to rig the election? Maybe they're just idiots, but maybe they are trying to discourage Democrats and get them to give up. If people think the election is going to be rigged anyway and Trump is inevitable, maybe they won't bother voting, especially since with voter suppression they might have to make quite a big effort to vote. Does this seem right? Or will it have no effect, or rile up people even more and actually increase turnout (though maybe it would just be energising people who are already voting Biden, and get diminishing returns?)?

I'm not saying that this will cost Biden the election. He is in a very good position. However, is the talk about the election being rigged and people overrating the likelihood of it going to end up being counter-productive for Democrats?
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Former Crackhead Mike Lindell
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« Reply #1 on: September 26, 2020, 05:43:24 AM »

I don't think I agree with it *decreasing*, though I can see arguments both ways. In a perverted way, it makes the election seem closer, and will therefore increase turnout.

Think of it: which angle will make more Republicans turn out, "Biden is set to win in a landslide" or "Trump will steal the election, if its close"? The former encourages despondence, the latter signals to them that Trump A.) hasn't given up, and B.) will do anything to win.

As for Democrats, I would HOPE talk of Republican chicanery underlines the importance of Biden winning BIG. Because they can't steal a blowout.

Biden winning decisively, in-person, on election day, would all-but cancel any shot Trump would have at stealing this.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2020, 08:03:57 AM »

We aren't gonna see that big of a turnout anyways, Covid has dampened the enthusiasm of many young voters. That's why Biden, not Bernie won the primary, Bernie didn't get the surge in turnout he expected due to Covid 19.

Voters were depressed back then, if it's a close election, it will go to Crts and Trump may win
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2020, 08:41:22 AM »

No.

If anything, Covid will depress turnout among old people - as we have seen in many European elections this year.

The assumption that this will be a historically high-turnout election is too early or incorrect, because just because a lot of people are voting early it doesn’t mean there’s generally high turnout combined with election day voters.
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Buzz
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« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2020, 08:42:43 AM »

No.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2020, 11:47:56 AM »

No.

If anything, Covid will depress turnout among old people - as we have seen in many European elections this year.

The assumption that this will be a historically high-turnout election is too early or incorrect, because just because a lot of people are voting early it doesn’t mean there’s generally high turnout combined with election day voters.

But most of the primaries this year have seen extremely high turnout even with COVID, in most cases historically high. Why think that the general election be any different?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #6 on: September 26, 2020, 12:04:21 PM »

No.

If anything, Covid will depress turnout among old people - as we have seen in many European elections this year.

The assumption that this will be a historically high-turnout election is too early or incorrect, because just because a lot of people are voting early it doesn’t mean there’s generally high turnout combined with election day voters.

But most of the primaries this year have seen extremely high turnout even with COVID, in most cases historically high. Why think that the general election be any different?

Because primaries have very low numbers compared to a general election.

It's also about motivating Independent voters to vote.

Those are often not voting in primaries. Only partisans do.
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xavier110
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« Reply #7 on: September 26, 2020, 12:39:42 PM »

I think the Wisconsin supreme court race is the best case study for how this rhetoric shapes turnout, and despite the conventional wisdom among Dem operatives who fear the "he's going to steal it" messaging, my gut says it motivates people to turn out.

People were motivated when the shenanigans were called out in WI.
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MR DARK BRANDON
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« Reply #8 on: September 26, 2020, 12:48:21 PM »

If anything it will increase turnout
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #9 on: September 26, 2020, 12:51:41 PM »

It very well could, but it could also increase turnout.
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beaver2.0
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« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2020, 03:34:36 PM »

Who knows, but from what I've seen it's firing young people up to vote.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2020, 03:38:32 PM »

I'd argue it fires up Democrats even more to turn out & vote while increasing complacency among Republicans who either distrust VBM ballots or feel Trump is somehow going to win anyway.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2020, 03:44:12 PM »

I think the Wisconsin supreme court race is the best case study for how this rhetoric shapes turnout, and despite the conventional wisdom among Dem operatives who fear the "he's going to steal it" messaging, my gut says it motivates people to turn out.

People were motivated when the shenanigans were called out in WI.
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #13 on: September 26, 2020, 04:39:24 PM »

Absolutely not. It makes people angrier and even more scared, which pretty much universally increases turnout.
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Ljube
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« Reply #14 on: September 26, 2020, 04:55:43 PM »

I think it will decrease the turnout. It makes Trump look weak and desperate in light of poor polling numbers thus reinforcing the narrative that Biden is sure to win.
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