Hart Research Associates: Biden +11 in AZ, +6 in FL, +5 in MI, +11 in PA, +7 in WI

[pbrower2a]

Watch the debates... Biden gets a slow start in speaking (trouble with a stutter, but Trump has far bigger and more indelible problems).

Biden has done well in stump speeches on COVID-19. I expect Joe Biden to hit the President with a number. The death toll has now surpassed the population of Rochester, New York, the 111th-largest city in the US.     

[Tintrlvr]

Hart Research Associates is one of the top Democratic polling firms in the country. They aren't ranked on 538, but they are the Democratic half of the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll (Republican half is Public Opinion Strategies).

For what it's worth, I think they are the same "Hart" as Garin-Hart-Young.

The one reason to view this with a skeptical eye is that the motivation here is to obtain favorable polling for LGBT rights issues (and then use those polling results to convince politicians to back LGBT rights progress), not to obtain accurate presidential polling numbers. It's always worth being skeptical of presidential numbers in a poll that is really about something else; they're just less motivated to get the numbers right.

[Brittain33]

Hart Research Associates is one of the top Democratic polling firms in the country. They aren't ranked on 538, but they are the Democratic half of the Wall Street Journal/NBC poll (Republican half is Public Opinion Strategies).

For what it's worth, I think they are the same "Hart" as Garin-Hart-Young.

The one reason to view this with a skeptical eye is that the motivation here is to obtain favorable polling for LGBT rights issues (and then use those polling results to convince politicians to back LGBT rights progress), not to obtain accurate presidential polling numbers. It's always worth being skeptical of presidential numbers in a poll that is really about something else; they're just less motivated to get the numbers right.

I agree, HRC can be considered a Dem advocacy group (nominally non-partisan, but we know what they want in 2020.)

[Xing]

Broke: Michigan will vote left of MN/NH/NV
Woke: Michigan will vote right of PA
Bespoke: Michigan will vote right of AZ/FL/WI

[DrScholl]

All of these look fairly close to where national polling is at.

[President Johnson]

While the Rust Belt numbers make sense (maybe except Michigan a little weak), Arizona and Florida are clearly outliers. Uncle Joe is certainly ahead in Arizona and has a small edge in Florida, but not by eleven and five points, respectively.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna win FL, he isnt gonna win TX, but Biden and Obama both won FL, OH, NC and IA in 2008 and 2012😃😃

[wbrocks67]

While the Rust Belt numbers make sense (maybe except Michigan a little weak), Arizona and Florida are clearly outliers. Uncle Joe is certainly ahead in Arizona and has a small edge in Florida, but not by eleven and five points, respectively.

However, we've had more polls of Biden being closer to +6 in FL and +11 in AZ than the recent outliers (cough ABC)

[Dr. Arch]

Have these polls been put into our averages yet?