Data for Progress: Kelly +9 in AZ, Cornyn +2 in TX
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  Data for Progress: Kelly +9 in AZ, Cornyn +2 in TX
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Author Topic: Data for Progress: Kelly +9 in AZ, Cornyn +2 in TX  (Read 670 times)
VAR
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« on: September 25, 2020, 09:19:57 AM »

AZ
Kelly 47%
McSally 38%

GCB: R 45-42

TX
Cornyn 40%
Hegar 38%

GCB: R 46-41

Florida GCB: D 45-42

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/student-debt-project-electoral.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2020, 09:37:07 AM »

TX there's way too many undecideds so it's junk, and AZ is on the upper end for Kelly (though he's gotten 5-10 in many many polls now), but I find it hard to reconcile Kelly +9 and Trump +1 in the same poll
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2020, 09:37:25 AM »

While Mr. Cornyn is leading most polls, his numbers have been extremely low. 40% is atrocious for an incumbent who has been in office since 2002 and won with 61% of the vote last time. Pure tossup.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2020, 10:02:47 AM »
« Edited: September 25, 2020, 10:15:19 AM by Calthrina950 »

While Mr. Cornyn is leading most polls, his numbers have been extremely low. 40% is atrocious for an incumbent who has been in office since 2002 and won with 61% of the vote last time. Pure tossup.

Agreed. And Cornyn only won by that much in 2014 because it was an extremely low turnout election, his Democratic opponent that year (David Alameel) was a complete unknown and barely campaigned, and it was a Republican wave year in Texas and elsewhere (that was the same year Wendy Davis, who is now within reach of a House seat, was crushed by Gregg Abbott, which undoubtedly helped Cornyn). In 2008, Cornyn "only" beat Rick Noriega 54-42%, underperforming John McCain, and in 2002, he won over Ron Kirk 55-43%, again underperforming George W. Bush in both of his elections and Texas' other Senator, Cruz's predecessor Kay Bailey Hutchison (who always got more than 60% of the vote in her elections). So Cornyn has never been an electoral titan, and it's no surprise that he's only running even with the state's current lean, as it's become more Democratic.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2020, 10:18:40 AM »

So youíre saying there wonít be hordes of O'Rourke/Cornyn and/or Biden/Cornyn voters even with a strong Republican incumbent who received nearly half a million fewer votes than Obama in 2012 when he won his last race by 27 points? And that TX voters care more about partisan affiliation than MJ Hegar's tattoos? And that TX-SEN 2018 wasnít close ONLY because Beto was an amazing candidate with absurd crossover appeal and Cruz with his +1 and identical-to-Trump's approval was absolutely despised? Iím sorry, but I have a hard time believing that and fully expect a NUT map at poll closing time.
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Hope For A New Era
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2020, 10:30:01 AM »

TX-SEN could be a sleeper race.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2020, 12:07:55 PM »

I think Hegar narrowly wins.
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2020, 07:57:55 AM »

New Poll: Arizona Senator (Special) by Data 4 Progress on 2020-09-22

Summary: D: 47%, R: 38%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2020, 07:59:02 AM »

New Poll: Texas Senator by Data 4 Progress on 2020-09-22

Summary: D: 38%, R: 40%, U: 22%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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