NV-ALG (D): Biden +4

[The Other Castro]

Biden - 47%
Trump - 43%

The survey, taken Sept. 15-21, shows Biden ahead 47-43. The poll of 800 likely voters had 86 percent cell phone contacts and 14 percent landlines, with a Spanish language option (which many pollsters do not have).

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/new-democratic-poll-shows-biden-up-4-in-nevada

[DINGO Joe]

Incoming “Polls always underestimate Democrat support in Nevada!!!!”

You're right Biden +10

[WD]

Incoming “Polls always underestimate Democrat support in Nevada!!!!”

They do.

[kireev]

=Trump leads among whites, 49-43; Biden leads among Blacks, 77-7; and Biden leads among Hispanics, 56-32.=

There is pretty much now way Biden leads by only 4 then. Their sample must be too white.  

=Biden has 82 percent of Democrats and Trump has 85 percent of Republicans; Biden leads 48-35 among indies/others.=

Thy don't give the full numbers, but that also indicates a Republican-friendly sample. Per CNN exit poll in 2016 Trump won independents by 13% and still lost the state.

[Ljube]

Democratic operatives in Nevada have been complaining about the ban on door-to-door knocking imposed by the Biden campaign. That coupled with Biden's declining numbers with Hispanics could be the reason why Nevada looks like a potential upset. I doubt Biden will campaign in Nevada, so expect surprises here.

[Gass3268]

Incoming “Polls always underestimate Democrat support in Nevada!!!!”

You are correct.

[Annatar]

“ALG Research, a Democratic firm that nailed the governor’s race here last cycle, polled for a Democratic interest group (not for the Biden campaign) and found the former vice president ahead here by 4 points“

Ralston claims this poll was accurate in 2018, so maybe it will be accurate this year.

[KaiserDave]

Incoming “Polls always underestimate Democrat support in Nevada!!!!”

They literally always do.

Has everyone forgot Heller +7? I haven't

[republican1993]

i can see a +4 lead since exit polls had trump in 20s with hispanics in nevada but lower white vote share now it kinda balances to +4 so this poll makes sense (he was +18 with white voters in 2016 in Nevada)

[kireev]

i can see a +4 lead since exit polls had trump in 20s with hispanics in nevada but lower white vote share now it kinda balances to +4 so this poll makes sense (he was +18 with white voters in 2016 in Nevada)

Clinton won Latinos 60% to 29% https://www.cnn.com/election/2016/results/exit-polls/nevada/president 

There is no way that shift 7% among Latinos balances out the 12% shift among whites. That's not even close.

[YE]

The one take this forum has been correct on is polls underestimating D’s here.

Biden +6 in Washoe probably supports a 7-9 point win. +12 in Clark despite the underwhelming Hispanic number probably is in line with a margin like that.

[Landslide Lyndon]

They are probably correct that Trump will get 43%.

[psychprofessor]

If Biden wins Washoe he won Nevada regardless of anything else.

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously at least Likely D, but I do think it will be very close to the national popular vote again (maybe even trend 1-2% R). Right now it’s the best popular vote bellwether.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

“Polls always underestimate Democrat support in Nevada!!!!”

This, but unironically.

[Ljube]

This is the only map where Nevada could be important for the overall election result.

Trump: 270
Biden: 268

Can Trump win New Hampshire?

[MT Treasurer]

^No, the "Trump's path runs through NV/NH, not WI/MI/PA" meme was asinine in 2016 and it’s asinine now. He’s also very unlikely to win NE-02 (or AZ, for that matter).

[kph14]

Democratic operatives in Nevada have been complaining about the ban on door-to-door knocking imposed by the Biden campaign. That coupled with Biden's declining numbers with Hispanics could be the reason why Nevada looks like a potential upset. I doubt Biden will campaign in Nevada, so expect surprises here.

Nevada will send everyone a ballot and has a very long history of early (in-person) voting. If turnout issues arise, we all be able to see it in the published data or in Ralston's early voting report and the campaign would be able to react.

Nevada is usually a state that does not bring many surprises as early voting is very prevalent and partisan registration can be reliably used to predict voting behavior

[redjohn]

By all means, Trump should focus efforts in NV. It's not flipping unless Biden only wins the race by a very slim margin nationally, in which case he'll have already lost the Presidency.

[Calthrina950]

By all means, Trump should focus efforts in NV. It's not flipping unless Biden only wins the race by a very slim margin nationally, in which case he'll have already lost the Presidency.

Agreed. Trump would have to win the Electoral College decisively to win Nevada. And as you note, Biden would still win the national PV under such a scenario-thanks in part, to his inflated leads in states like California and New York.

[Eraserhead]

Time to send in Senator Sanders.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Time to send in Senator Sanders.

Why? For what?

[soundchaser]

Time to send in Senator Sanders.

Why? For what?

He campaigned pretty hard for Jacky Rosen in 2018, and I suppose you could argue that helped her victory. (Although you'd need some more data than I have to do so.)

[Ljube]

^No, the "Trump's path runs through NV/NH, not WI/MI/PA" meme was asinine in 2016 and it’s asinine now. He’s also very unlikely to win NE-02 (or AZ, for that matter).

That was not my meme.

[Eraserhead]

Time to send in Senator Sanders.

Why? For what?

He campaigned pretty hard for Jacky Rosen in 2018, and I suppose you could argue that helped her victory. (Although you'd need some more data than I have to do so.)

He also whooped Biden there. Hispanics love Mr. Bernie!