VT - Braun Research: Welch +39%, Scott +3% v.s. Leahy in 2022

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

http://projects.vpr.org/vpr-vermont-pbs-2020-polls-september

September 3-15
586 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with February 4-10 poll

Welch 57%
Berry 18%
Other/not sure/no opinion 6%
No one/not voting on this item 6%
Becker (I) 2%
Helali (Communist) 1%
Horne (I) 1%
Orr (I) 0%
Trudell (I) 0%

"If Phil Scott were to challenge Sen. Patrick Leahy in the next Senate election, would you favor Scott or Leahy? "

Scott 41%
Leahy 38%
Neither 7%
Not sure/don't remember 15%

[Calthrina950]

http://projects.vpr.org/vpr-vermont-pbs-2020-polls-september

September 3-15
586 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with February 4-10 poll

Welch 57%
Berry 18%
Other/not sure/no opinion 6%
No one/not voting on this item 6%
Becker (I) 2%
Helali (Communist) 1%
Horne (I) 1%
Orr (I) 0%
Trudell (I) 0%

"If Phil Scott were to challenge Sen. Patrick Leahy in the next Senate election, would you favor Scott or Leahy? "

Scott 41%
Leahy 38%
Neither 7%
Not sure/don't remember 15%

Although I highly doubt Scott could win a Senate race as a Republican, he could pull it off if he ran as an independent (look at Bernie Sanders, after all). At any rate, Leahy needs to retire in 2022. He is the longest serving member of the Senate, and has been in office for 45 years by now. To put things into perspective as to how long he's been there: Leahy's predecessor George Aiken has been dead for 36 years.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

http://projects.vpr.org/vpr-vermont-pbs-2020-polls-september

September 3-15
586 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with February 4-10 poll

Welch 57%
Berry 18%
Other/not sure/no opinion 6%
No one/not voting on this item 6%
Becker (I) 2%
Helali (Communist) 1%
Horne (I) 1%
Orr (I) 0%
Trudell (I) 0%

"If Phil Scott were to challenge Sen. Patrick Leahy in the next Senate election, would you favor Scott or Leahy? "

Scott 41%
Leahy 38%
Neither 7%
Not sure/don't remember 15%

Although I highly doubt Scott could win a Senate race as a Republican, he could pull it off if he ran as an independent (look at Bernie Sanders, after all). At any rate, Leahy needs to retire in 2022. He is the longest serving member of the Senate, and has been in office for 45 years by now. To put things into perspective as to how long he's been there: Leahy's predecessor George Aiken has been dead for 36 years.

I expect he'll retire anyway, but from a tactical standpoint, Leahy may be an electorally stronger candidate against Scott than a fresh Democratic face. It wasn't always so, but he's not resisted progressive trends in his state.

[KaiserDave]

Scott would lose to Leahy, especially with a 50 50 senate. But, I think he could beat a new Democrat if Leahy retires.

[Calthrina950]

http://projects.vpr.org/vpr-vermont-pbs-2020-polls-september

September 3-15
586 likely voters
MoE: 4%
Changes with February 4-10 poll

Welch 57%
Berry 18%
Other/not sure/no opinion 6%
No one/not voting on this item 6%
Becker (I) 2%
Helali (Communist) 1%
Horne (I) 1%
Orr (I) 0%
Trudell (I) 0%

"If Phil Scott were to challenge Sen. Patrick Leahy in the next Senate election, would you favor Scott or Leahy? "

Scott 41%
Leahy 38%
Neither 7%
Not sure/don't remember 15%

Although I highly doubt Scott could win a Senate race as a Republican, he could pull it off if he ran as an independent (look at Bernie Sanders, after all). At any rate, Leahy needs to retire in 2022. He is the longest serving member of the Senate, and has been in office for 45 years by now. To put things into perspective as to how long he's been there: Leahy's predecessor George Aiken has been dead for 36 years.

I expect he'll retire anyway, but from a tactical standpoint, Leahy may be an electorally stronger candidate against Scott than a fresh Democratic face. It wasn't always so, but he's not resisted progressive trends in his state.

I would certainly agree that Leahy would be stronger against Scott then an untested candidate, given that's he effectively an institution in Vermont, though not to the extent that his colleague, Chuck Grassley (the longest serving Republican in the Senate) is in Iowa. But in any case, you're right that Leahy probably will retire. It amazes me that he is still the only Democrat Vermont has ever elected to the Senate. That reminds one that the days of Vermont being the most Republican state in the country aren't that far in the past.

[Horus]

If the Senate race is Scott vs. Zuckerman I'd donate to Scott. No place for anti vaxxers in the Senate, or anywhere.

[morgieb]

Well, I see Phil Scott getting to 41%.

[RINO Tom]

Good, VT has been without a good ole Republican Senator for far too long!

(Also fascinating ... if you don’t count Bernie as one, VT has never had two Democratic Senators, IIRC.)

[MT Treasurer]

Obviously this should only be entertained in a Biden midterm, and even then it would be a tall order in a federal race. However, of all the deep blue states with Democrats up in 2022, it’s between MD (only with Hogan) and VT as to which one is more likely to "surprise" by electing a Republican Senator under a Democratic trifecta IMO. VT would seem like a better bet, but who knows (I’m not saying either one will happen).

[KaiserDave]

Obviously this should only be entertained in a Biden midterm, and even then it would be a tall order in a federal race. However, of all the deep blue states with Democrats up in 2022, it’s between MD (only with Hogan) and VT as to which one is more likely to "surprise" by electing a Republican Senator under a Democratic trifecta IMO. VT would seem like a better bet, but who knows (I’m not saying either one will happen).

Vermont also has a very small, dare I say elastic population of voters.

[S019]

I doubt Scott could beat Leahy, however Leahy should be polling much higher than 38%, this seems like junk. Scott absolutely could beat another Democrat though, anyways, Leahy is old and will probably retire

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Leahy needs to go and  let Zuckerman become next Senator, he is well past his prime

[S019]

Leahy needs to go and  let Zuckerman become next Senator, he is well past his prime

Lol, Zuckerman is anti-vaxx, no thanks

[AndyHogan14]

I can't imagine any Democrat would lose to Scott once they start connecting him to McConnell. If he runs as an independent and vows to support Schumer (or another Democrat) as majority leader, then maybe, but as Republican in good standing with the Senate Republican caucus? Not a chance.

I do, however, find it interesting that if Leahy did decide to retire in 2022, Californians may be first, second, and third in line to the presidency (Harris, Pelosi, Feinstein). Dianne Feinstein is currently the second most senior Democrat in the Senate behind Leahy.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I do, however, find it interesting that if Leahy did decide to retire in 2022, Californians may be first, second, and third in line to the presidency (Harris, Pelosi, Feinstein). Dianne Feinstein is currently the second most senior Democrat in the Senate behind Leahy.

That would certainly be a huge victory for Willie Brown machine politics.

[HAnnA MArin County]

I doubt that the good people of Vermont would elect someone who would vote to keep/make Moscow Cocaine Mitch McConnell Senate Majority Leader, but what do I know?

[ctrepublican512]

It's happening. Just let it happen people.





....also the notion that Scott would support or even vote for McConnell as Senator shows a lack of understanding of Phil Scott. He is not a partisan and could get away with that.

[GALeftist]

Anyone think that there's a chance Leahy (and maybe even Sanders) just stick it out to box Scott out of the senate? Worst case scenario, Leahy dies before 2026, and relevantly in Vermont the special election would have to be held within 6 months.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is the long reach seat in 2022. Not Maryland.

[KaiserDave]

Anyone think that there's a chance Leahy (and maybe even Sanders) just stick it out to box Scott out of the senate? Worst case scenario, Leahy dies before 2026, and relevantly in Vermont the special election would have to be held within 6 months.

That's possible. But I really don't know if Bernie would go for it again in 2024.

[KaiserDave]

I doubt that the good people of Vermont would elect someone who would vote to keep/make Moscow Cocaine Mitch McConnell Senate Majority Leader, but what do I know?

I haven't seen any evidence to suggest that Scott would support McConnell.

[GALeftist]

This is the long reach seat in 2022. Not Maryland.

If the Maryland Dems let Hogan win a senate seat they've committed political malpractice. What, I ask you, is the point of all the corruption and Machiavellianism if they can't even lock down a senate seat in a D+12 state?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

This is the long reach seat in 2022. Not Maryland.

If the Maryland Dems let Hogan win a senate seat they've committed political malpractice. What, I ask you, is the point of all the corruption and Machiavellianism if they can't even lock down a senate seat in a D+12 state?

He won't win. Republicans would be lighting money on fire if they spend on that race.