|           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 25, 2020, 12:03:26 PM
News:

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Congressional Elections
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  Data for Progress: Kelly +9 in AZ, Cornyn +2 in TX
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Data for Progress: Kelly +9 in AZ, Cornyn +2 in TX  (Read 321 times)
VARepublican
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,652


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 25, 2020, 09:19:57 AM »

AZ
Kelly 47%
McSally 38%

GCB: R 45-42

TX
Cornyn 40%
Hegar 38%

GCB: R 46-41

Florida GCB: D 45-42

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/student-debt-project-electoral.pdf
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,585
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2020, 09:37:07 AM »

TX there's way too many undecideds so it's junk, and AZ is on the upper end for Kelly (though he's gotten 5-10 in many many polls now), but I find it hard to reconcile Kelly +9 and Trump +1 in the same poll
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,541
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2020, 09:37:25 AM »

While Mr. Cornyn is leading most polls, his numbers have been extremely low. 40% is atrocious for an incumbent who has been in office since 2002 and won with 61% of the vote last time. Pure tossup.
Logged
Calthrina950
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 7,286
United States


P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2020, 10:02:47 AM »
« Edited: September 25, 2020, 10:15:19 AM by Calthrina950 »

While Mr. Cornyn is leading most polls, his numbers have been extremely low. 40% is atrocious for an incumbent who has been in office since 2002 and won with 61% of the vote last time. Pure tossup.

Agreed. And Cornyn only won by that much in 2014 because it was an extremely low turnout election, his Democratic opponent that year (David Alameel) was a complete unknown and barely campaigned, and it was a Republican wave year in Texas and elsewhere (that was the same year Wendy Davis, who is now within reach of a House seat, was crushed by Gregg Abbott, which undoubtedly helped Cornyn). In 2008, Cornyn "only" beat Rick Noriega 54-42%, underperforming John McCain, and in 2002, he won over Ron Kirk 55-43%, again underperforming George W. Bush in both of his elections and Texas' other Senator, Cruz's predecessor Kay Bailey Hutchison (who always got more than 60% of the vote in her elections). So Cornyn has never been an electoral titan, and it's no surprise that he's only running even with the state's current lean, as it's become more Democratic.
Logged
Hardcore Sen. Peters/Daines/Cornyn/Perdue supporter
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,231
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2020, 10:18:40 AM »

So youíre saying there wonít be hordes of O'Rourke/Cornyn and/or Biden/Cornyn voters even with a strong Republican incumbent who received nearly half a million fewer votes than Obama in 2012 when he won his last race by 27 points? And that TX voters care more about partisan affiliation than MJ Hegar's tattoos? And that TX-SEN 2018 wasnít close ONLY because Beto was an amazing candidate with absurd crossover appeal and Cruz with his +1 and identical-to-Trump's approval was absolutely despised? Iím sorry, but I have a hard time believing that and fully expect a NUT map at poll closing time.
Logged
EastOfEden
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,527


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2020, 10:30:01 AM »

TX-SEN could be a sleeper race.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,241
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 25, 2020, 12:07:55 PM »

I think Hegar narrowly wins.
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,561
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 27, 2020, 07:57:55 AM »

New Poll: Arizona Senator (Special) by Data 4 Progress on 2020-09-22

Summary: D: 47%, R: 38%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,561
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 27, 2020, 07:59:02 AM »

New Poll: Texas Senator by Data 4 Progress on 2020-09-22

Summary: D: 38%, R: 40%, U: 22%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.036 seconds with 12 queries.