Data for Progress: Trump +1 in AZ/TX, Biden +3 in FL

[VAR]

Sep 15-22

AZ (481 LV)
Trump 46%
Biden 45%

FL (620 LV)
Biden 46%
Trump 43%

TX (726 LV)
Trump 46%
Biden 45%

https://filesforprogress.org/memos/student-debt-project-electoral.pdf

[Niemeyerite]

AZ numbers could be better... But +3 in FL and - 1 in TX is great news. I'll take it.

[Buzz]

Arizona is becoming a toss up state again after looking very good for Biden.  The Florida poll has too many undecided to really take seriously.

[Sir Mohamed]

So AZ votes exactly as TX? Cast X for doubt.

FL poll seems to be line with most others we've seen. Pure tossup. If the election was held today, I think Biden would win FL by around 1-1.5 pts.

[VAR]

Arizona is becoming a toss up state again after looking very good for Biden.  The Florida poll has too many undecided to really take seriously.

All three have too many undecideds. Not acceptable at this point IMO.

[wbrocks67]

Arizona has suddenly gotten very tight. Puzzling.

Last AZ polls:

Trump +1
Biden +3
Biden +6
Biden +2 / Trump +1
Biden +1
Biden +5
Biden +9
Biden tied - Biden +4
Biden +5

When you average them out, it's about Biden +4 which it's been for months now.

[Skill and Chance]

Arizona has suddenly gotten very tight. Puzzling.

COVID wave ending?  LV models? Adjustments due to Trump's improvement with Latinos in national polls?

Biden is now completely dependent on PA in the EC.

[Devils30]

Pollsters are having trouble with this state, just like NV it is not an easy one.

[WD]

Arizona has suddenly gotten very tight. Puzzling.

Not really. The average is Biden+3-4. Except for a few especially rosy polls for Biden, most have found him leading in the mid to low singe digits. CNN, back in July, found him up 4 and last week CBS found Biden up 3. It’s always been one of his better states.

[wbrocks67]

Arizona has suddenly gotten very tight. Puzzling.

COVID wave ending?  LV models? Adjustments due to Trump's improvement with Latinos in national polls?

Biden is now completely dependent on PA in the EC.

Did you literally not just see my post above. Trump leading here or tied is a bit of an outlier compared to the Biden +4 average.

We literally have gotten Biden +3 (Data Orbital), Biden +6 (Change), Biden +9 (NYT/Siena), Biden +5 (R&W), Biden +10 (OHPI) in the *last week*, not to mention Monmouth had him at +4 in RV. But yes, let's continue to focus on the 1 or 2 outliers!

[wbrocks67]

They also have Kelly +9 simultaneously with Trump +1 so... I have no idea how that works out

[Skill and Chance]

Arizona has suddenly gotten very tight. Puzzling.

COVID wave ending?  LV models? Adjustments due to Trump's improvement with Latinos in national polls?

Biden is now completely dependent on PA in the EC.

Did you literally not just see my post above. Trump leading here or tied is a bit of an outlier compared to the Biden +4 average.

We literally have gotten Biden +3 (Data Orbital), Biden +6 (Change), Biden +9 (NYT/Siena), Biden +5 (R&W), Biden +10 (OHPI) in the *last week*, not to mention Monmouth had him at +4 in RV. But yes, let's continue to focus on the 1 or 2 outliers!

I agree Biden is probably up in AZ, but he's probably up only 1-3 right now.  2 weeks ago, it looked like AZ was coming into line with the NPV margin for Biden, now it's back closer to where Florida is.

[Gass3268]

DFP does good work, but in the methodology it says these polls were only conducted in English. Big deal in these three states obviously.

[WD]

Arizona has suddenly gotten very tight. Puzzling.

COVID wave ending?  LV models? Adjustments due to Trump's improvement with Latinos in national polls?

Biden is now completely dependent on PA in the EC.

Did you literally not just see my post above. Trump leading here or tied is a bit of an outlier compared to the Biden +4 average.

We literally have gotten Biden +3 (Data Orbital), Biden +6 (Change), Biden +9 (NYT/Siena), Biden +5 (R&W), Biden +10 (OHPI) in the *last week*, not to mention Monmouth had him at +4 in RV. But yes, let's continue to focus on the 1 or 2 outliers!

I agree Biden is probably up in AZ, but he's probably up only 1-3 right now.  2 weeks ago, it looked like AZ was coming into line with the NPV margin for Biden, now it's back closer to where Florida is.

Biden was never winning AZ by 8-9. He’s was up by about 3, which is the RCP average, and he still is.

[bilaps]

If you would exclude silly 260 sample Change poll from AZ last 4 polls are Trump +1 2x Biden +3 and Biden +1

[Rand]

Arizonans must have woke up and realized just how much they f***ing hate Hunter Biden.

[Brittain33]

I’m blaming LV models for the tightening in Arizona. It’s historically a low turnout state. And maybe it will be again in 2020! But that’s the assumption we make behind this tightening.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

DFP does good work, but in the methodology it says these polls were only conducted in English. Big deal in these three states obviously.

adjusting for the English-only nature of these polls - this is probably a 3 point lead for Biden in AZ/TX and 5 in FL.

[CellarDoor]

DFP does good work, but in the methodology it says these polls were only conducted in English. Big deal in these three states obviously.

Yep.  I'm waiting for a high-level poll of AZ that does interviews in both English and Spanish to see whether we have another NV on our hands here.

[Skill and Chance]

DFP does good work, but in the methodology it says these polls were only conducted in English. Big deal in these three states obviously.

Yep.  I'm waiting for a high-level poll of AZ that does interviews in both English and Spanish to see whether we have another NV on our hands here.

Certainly possible, and would mean TX is extremely close if true. 

[Devout Centrist]

Arizona has suddenly gotten very tight. Puzzling.

No it hasn’t

[YE]

Arizona has suddenly gotten very tight. Puzzling.

COVID wave ending?  LV models? Adjustments due to Trump's improvement with Latinos in national polls?

Biden is now completely dependent on PA in the EC.

Did you literally not just see my post above. Trump leading here or tied is a bit of an outlier compared to the Biden +4 average.

We literally have gotten Biden +3 (Data Orbital), Biden +6 (Change), Biden +9 (NYT/Siena), Biden +5 (R&W), Biden +10 (OHPI) in the *last week*, not to mention Monmouth had him at +4 in RV. But yes, let's continue to focus on the 1 or 2 outliers!

I agree Biden is probably up in AZ, but he's probably up only 1-3 right now.  2 weeks ago, it looked like AZ was coming into line with the NPV margin for Biden, now it's back closer to where Florida is.

It’s called noise. Biden probably wins AZ by like 4 in the end.

[BoJack Horseman]

Arizona has suddenly gotten very tight. Puzzling.

COVID wave ending?  LV models? Adjustments due to Trump's improvement with Latinos in national polls?

Biden is now completely dependent on PA in the EC.

Did you literally not just see my post above. Trump leading here or tied is a bit of an outlier compared to the Biden +4 average.

We literally have gotten Biden +3 (Data Orbital), Biden +6 (Change), Biden +9 (NYT/Siena), Biden +5 (R&W), Biden +10 (OHPI) in the *last week*, not to mention Monmouth had him at +4 in RV. But yes, let's continue to focus on the 1 or 2 outliers!

I agree Biden is probably up in AZ, but he's probably up only 1-3 right now.  2 weeks ago, it looked like AZ was coming into line with the NPV margin for Biden, now it's back closer to where Florida is.

It’s called noise. Biden probably wins AZ by like 4 in the end.

I was just about to say there is no way Kelly wins 56% of the vote and Biden doesn’t also win Arizona lol.

[Interlocutor]

Pollsters are having trouble with this state, just like NV it is not an easy one.

Pollsters seem to have trouble with any state with a significant Hispanic population.

We'll see how Arizona/Texas votes, but I wouldn't be stunned if the big polling story coming out of November is Hispanic or Dem under-polling in the Southwest.

[Hammy]

Pollsters are having trouble with this state, just like NV it is not an easy one.

Pollsters seem to have trouble with any state with a significant Hispanic population.

We'll see how Arizona/Texas votes, but I wouldn't be stunned if the big polling story coming out of November is Hispanic under-polling in the Southwest

I will say that checking the 2016/2018 errors is what's made me less confident of Trump winning Arizona--Dems overperformed both the margin and their topline numbers there (while the GOP was about even or below polls) in both of the last two election cycles.