MD-OpinionWorks: Biden +32

[VAR]

Sep 4-11, 753 LV

Biden 62%
Trump 30%

State legislature generic ballot: D 56-27 (+29)

Favorables:
Trump 29/63 (-34)
Biden 55/28 (+27)
Hogan 69/10 (+59)
BLM 63/21 (+42)

https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid=sites&srcid=b3BpbmlvbndvcmtzLmNvbXxjb21wMXxneDoxMjc5ZWQzMzNlZWQ5NmU3

[Thomas D]

Eger to see just how high Biden's vote % will be here.  Hillary got 60.3% in 2016.

[Duke of York]

That’s better than Obama. Curious to see how high Biden gets here. I thought Maryland only elects it’s legislature in midterms?

[Thomas D]

That’s better than Obama. Curious to see how high Biden gets here. I thought Maryland only elects it’s legislature in midterms?

We do.  I assumed he meant the Congressional ballot 

[kireev]

Biden is even leading among whites by 7 points.

[Calthrina950]

Biden is even leading among whites by 7 points.

Ben Cardin won the white vote by 6% in 2018, according to exit polls. So a Biden margin such as this wouldn't surprise me at all. I'm assuming that Biden is registering major gains among white women and college-educated suburbanites compared to Clinton.

[President Johnson]

Eger to see just how high Biden's vote % will be here.  Hillary got 60.3% in 2016.

I think he'll get between 63% and 65%, while Trump is stuck in the low 30s. That said, huge freedom state.

The Hogan number is absolutely insane.

[Alben Barkley]

Eger to see just how high Biden's vote % will be here.  Hillary got 60.3% in 2016.

I think he'll get between 63% and 65%, while Trump is stuck in the low 30s. That said, huge freedom state.

The Hogan number is absolutely insane.

It just goes to show that the national GOP could still compete in blue states if they were less insane themselves.

[Tekken_Guy]

Biden is even leading among whites by 7 points.

Ben Cardin won the white vote by 6% in 2018, according to exit polls. So a Biden margin such as this wouldn't surprise me at all. I'm assuming that Biden is registering major gains among white women and college-educated suburbanites compared to Clinton.

This means Trump is getting obliterated in and around Philly. That's probably the ballgame.

[Roll Roons]

Eger to see just how high Biden's vote % will be here.  Hillary got 60.3% in 2016.

I think he'll get between 63% and 65%, while Trump is stuck in the low 30s. That said, huge freedom state.

The Hogan number is absolutely insane.

He's amazing.

Digging down, his net approval is +59 with Democrats, +53 with blacks, +48 with 18-35, +59 with women, +58 with bachelor's degrees, and +56 with postgrad. Maybe polarization won't last forever after all.

[Tekken_Guy]

Eger to see just how high Biden's vote % will be here.  Hillary got 60.3% in 2016.

I think he'll get between 63% and 65%, while Trump is stuck in the low 30s. That said, huge freedom state.

The Hogan number is absolutely insane.

He's amazing.

Digging down, his net approval is +59 with Democrats, +53 with blacks, +48 with 18-35, +59 with women, +58 with bachelor's degrees, and +56 with postgrad. Maybe polarization won't last forever after all.

Larry Hogan for Senate 2022?

[We Live in Black and White]

Tilt D.

[MT Treasurer]

Eger to see just how high Biden's vote % will be here.  Hillary got 60.3% in 2016.

I think he'll get between 63% and 65%, while Trump is stuck in the low 30s. That said, huge freedom state.

The Hogan number is absolutely insane.

He's amazing.

Digging down, his net approval is +59 with Democrats, +53 with blacks, +48 with 18-35, +59 with women, +58 with bachelor's degrees, and +56 with postgrad. Maybe polarization won't last forever after all.

Larry Hogan for Senate 2022?

I really hope national Republicans can convince him to run for Senate in 2022. Yes, I’m aware that he almost certainly wouldn’t win, but it would at least expand the battleground (which is very D-friendly as it is) and force Democrats to spend big there. Only going on the offensive in NH won’t cut it for Republicans with that map.

[President Johnson]

Eger to see just how high Biden's vote % will be here.  Hillary got 60.3% in 2016.

I think he'll get between 63% and 65%, while Trump is stuck in the low 30s. That said, huge freedom state.

The Hogan number is absolutely insane.

He's amazing.

Digging down, his net approval is +59 with Democrats, +53 with blacks, +48 with 18-35, +59 with women, +58 with bachelor's degrees, and +56 with postgrad. Maybe polarization won't last forever after all.

Larry Hogan for Senate 2022?

I really hope national Republicans can convince him to run for Senate in 2022. Yes, I’m aware that he almost certainly wouldn’t win, but it would at least expand the battleground (which is very D-friendly as it is) and force Democrats to spend big there. Only going on the offensive in NH won’t cut it for Republicans with that map.

Hogan will most likely run for president in 2024. But the Republican Party is never going to nominate him. Even if Trump loses in a landslide this November.

[Roll Roons]

Eger to see just how high Biden's vote % will be here.  Hillary got 60.3% in 2016.

I think he'll get between 63% and 65%, while Trump is stuck in the low 30s. That said, huge freedom state.

The Hogan number is absolutely insane.

He's amazing.

Digging down, his net approval is +59 with Democrats, +53 with blacks, +48 with 18-35, +59 with women, +58 with bachelor's degrees, and +56 with postgrad. Maybe polarization won't last forever after all.

Larry Hogan for Senate 2022?

I really hope national Republicans can convince him to run for Senate in 2022. Yes, I’m aware that he almost certainly wouldn’t win, but it would at least expand the battleground (which is very D-friendly as it is) and force Democrats to spend big there. Only going on the offensive in NH won’t cut it for Republicans with that map.

Hogan will most likely run for president in 2024. But the Republican Party is never going to nominate him. Even if Trump loses in a landslide this November.

Sadly, you're probably right. But that won't stop me from going to work on his campaign.

[Nyvin]

Hogan is almost assuredly going to run for President in 2024.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hogan is almost assuredly going to run for President in 2024.

I like Hogan, but he has next to no chance in a Republican presidential primary.

[slothdem]

Hogan is almost assuredly going to run for President in 2024.

And he'll spend his campaign, like Christie, sh**tting on the people of his state in order to justify why his record is insufficiently conservative.

[Calthrina950]

Eger to see just how high Biden's vote % will be here.  Hillary got 60.3% in 2016.

I think he'll get between 63% and 65%, while Trump is stuck in the low 30s. That said, huge freedom state.

The Hogan number is absolutely insane.

He's amazing.

Digging down, his net approval is +59 with Democrats, +53 with blacks, +48 with 18-35, +59 with women, +58 with bachelor's degrees, and +56 with postgrad. Maybe polarization won't last forever after all.

If this country were depolarized like it was in 1976 or 1960, Larry Hogan would win in a landslide of Reagan or Roosevelt-like proportions.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Eger to see just how high Biden's vote % will be here.  Hillary got 60.3% in 2016.

I think he'll get between 63% and 65%, while Trump is stuck in the low 30s. That said, huge freedom state.

The Hogan number is absolutely insane.

He's amazing.

Digging down, his net approval is +59 with Democrats, +53 with blacks, +48 with 18-35, +59 with women, +58 with bachelor's degrees, and +56 with postgrad. Maybe polarization won't last forever after all.

If this country were depolarized like it was in 1976 or 1960, Larry Hogan would win in a landslide of Reagan or Roosevelt-like proportions.

I don't think so lol.

[Calthrina950]

Eger to see just how high Biden's vote % will be here.  Hillary got 60.3% in 2016.

I think he'll get between 63% and 65%, while Trump is stuck in the low 30s. That said, huge freedom state.

The Hogan number is absolutely insane.

He's amazing.

Digging down, his net approval is +59 with Democrats, +53 with blacks, +48 with 18-35, +59 with women, +58 with bachelor's degrees, and +56 with postgrad. Maybe polarization won't last forever after all.

If this country were depolarized like it was in 1976 or 1960, Larry Hogan would win in a landslide of Reagan or Roosevelt-like proportions.

I don't think so lol.

I was saying if this country were depolarized. It would also be a timeline in which the Republican and Democratic Parties were more ideologically heterogeneous, as they were in the past-that is, when there were liberal Republicans and conservative Democrats.

[politicallefty]

I do wonder how high Biden could go in Maryland. It's a terrible fit for Trump in every way. I'm guessing 64-66%, though I could see it edging a bit over that.

[Duke of York]

I do wonder how high Biden could go in Maryland. It's a terrible fit for Trump in every way. I'm guessing 64-66%, though I could see it edging a bit over that.

Its possible. That would equal or be better than Johnson's performance in 1964. He got 65 percent.

[politicallefty]

I do wonder how high Biden could go in Maryland. It's a terrible fit for Trump in every way. I'm guessing 64-66%, though I could see it edging a bit over that.

Its possible. That would equal or be better than Johnson's performance in 1964. He got 65 percent.

It's insane how different that map was. LBJ won all but two counties in the state. Even on the best possible night conceivable for Biden, he won't win a majority of counties in Maryland. It's even crazier when you look at a county like Prince George's, where LBJ got 64%. Hillary got 88%, which was weaker than Obama in both of his elections. In Montgomery County, LBJ won 66%. I think Biden will get close to 80%. I think for Biden to get to the numbers I'm guessing, he'll need to get close to 80% in Montgomery and get some strong swings in the Baltimore suburbs and Annapolis.

[Duke of York]

I do wonder how high Biden could go in Maryland. It's a terrible fit for Trump in every way. I'm guessing 64-66%, though I could see it edging a bit over that.

Its possible. That would equal or be better than Johnson's performance in 1964. He got 65 percent.

It's insane how different that map was. LBJ won all but two counties in the state. Even on the best possible night conceivable for Biden, he won't win a majority of counties in Maryland. It's even crazier when you look at a county like Prince George's, where LBJ got 64%. Hillary got 88%, which was weaker than Obama in both of his elections. In Montgomery County, LBJ won 66%. I think Biden will get close to 80%. I think for Biden to get to the numbers I'm guessing, he'll need to get close to 80% in Montgomery and get some strong swings in the Baltimore suburbs and Annapolis.

It is crazy when you think about it. The only counties Johnson didn't win was Dorchester which has been trending blue in recent years and Garrett County which has never voted Democrat since its creation. Johnson came the closest.