CLF internals: Trump leads in WI-03

[VAR]

The group’s internal data from this summer found Trump is still leading Biden in the district, and that a majority of voters want their member of Congress to back the president’s agenda. The generic congressional ballot favors a Republican candidate

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/09/24/gop-super-pac-campaign-ron-kind-420897

[Adam Griffin]

He won by 13 in 2014, had no challenge in 2016, and won by 19 in 2018.

Good luck.

[Brittain33]

I'm guessing it's an "informed ballot" poll.

[Mr.Phips]

If Biden is ahead in Wisconsin by 5 there is no way Trump leads in this district.

[Skill and Chance]

If Biden is ahead in Wisconsin by 5 there is no way Trump leads in this district.

Not necessarily.  Trump could have collapsed in WOW.

[Dr. Arch]

Sounds like some hot baloney served with a side of malarkey.

[Mr.Phips]

If Biden is ahead in Wisconsin by 5 there is no way Trump leads in this district.

Not necessarily.  Trump could have collapsed in WOW.

It would have to be at the point where WI-05 is a dead heat.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Buh buh but 2016 was a one off! Rural voters will surely come back to dems.

I'm sure Trump loses WI-03, but it wouldn't shock me if some of the rurals don't budge that much

[Dr. Arch]

Buh buh but 2016 was a one off! Rural voters will surely come back to dems.

I'm sure Trump loses WI-03, but it wouldn't shock me if some of the rurals don't budge that much

They do budge quite a fair bit in many areas of Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

If Biden is behind in WI-03:

a. He's losing Wisconsin
b. He's in trouble in Minnesota
c. He's getting blown out in Iowa
d. He's probably losing the election.

Hopefully this poll is off significantly.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

Buh buh but 2016 was a one off! Rural voters will surely come back to dems.

I'm sure Trump loses WI-03, but it wouldn't shock me if some of the rurals don't budge that much

They do budge quite a fair bit in many areas of Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest.

Isn't WI-03 still primarily ELCA (Lutheran) and culturally fairly secular? These are the sort of white, rural voters I'm hoping come home to Biden.

[Dr. Arch]

Buh buh but 2016 was a one off! Rural voters will surely come back to dems.

I'm sure Trump loses WI-03, but it wouldn't shock me if some of the rurals don't budge that much

They do budge quite a fair bit in many areas of Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest.

Isn't WI-03 still primarily ELCA (Lutheran) and culturally fairly secular? These are the sort of white, rural voters I'm hoping come home to Biden.

Yep.

[republican1993]

he won it by nearly 5 in 2016, if he's up he's close to tied or winning the state.

[DrScholl]

It's always suspicious when a poll is mentioned but no actual numbers are released.

[Suburbia]

Ron Kind's WI-03 is a Tossup to me.

[Gass3268]

The more I've been looking at regional breakdown in polling, it's possible that Biden's rebound is coming primarily from the eastern part of the state. NYT/Siena had Trump doing about the same in Western Wisconsin, but worse everywhere else and in some places much worse.

[Calthrina950]

Buh buh but 2016 was a one off! Rural voters will surely come back to dems.

I'm sure Trump loses WI-03, but it wouldn't shock me if some of the rurals don't budge that much

They do budge quite a fair bit in many areas of Wisconsin and the Upper Midwest.

But not to the extent that they used to. Tammy Baldwin in 2018, for example-as you're aware, won with the same percentage, and by roughly the same margin, as Russ Feingold in 2004, but she lost many of the rural counties in Western Wisconsin that he had carried. Baldwin compensated for this by improving over Feingold in Dane, Milwaukee, and the WOW counties. In Illinois, Democrats did much worse Downstate then they had as recently as 2010 or 2014; Jesse White, the state's popular Democratic Secretary of State, got almost the same percentage and margin in 2018 as in 2010, but lost many of the counties he had carried Downstate, compensating for this by improving in Cook County and the Collar Counties. Gretchen Whitmer and Richard Cordray did worse in parts of rural Michigan and Ohio than even Barack Obama in 2012, and Sherrod Brown lost ground in rural Ohio compared to 2012 and 2006 as well.