PA - Trafalgar: Biden+2

[n1240]

https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/restoration/pages/865/attachments/original/1600985448/Trafalagar_PA_Sept.pdf

Biden 48
Trump 46
Jorgensen 1
Hawkins 1

9/18-21, 1006 LV

Biden and Trump both one point higher from 9/15-17 poll

[philly09]

There they go again.  They had Trump winning Nevada 50-45 a week before the election in 2016, citing the "Shy Trump Voters".

[wbrocks67]

As much as Trafalgar tries, they still cant find a Trump lead in PA

[Rand]

Amish and Joe the Plumber votes cancelling each other out.

[Podgy the Bear]

As much as Trafalgar tries, they still cant find a Trump lead in PA

You can only go so far in committing fraud the way Trafalgar shows its data.  Sooner or later, someone is going to find out.

[Gass3268]

Didn’t they just poll here?

[neostassenite31]

Why aren't people making 10 page discussions out of Trafalgar anymore?

[Stranger in a strange land]

If Trafalgar starts from the assumption that shy Trump voters exist (a very iffy one in a place like PA, which hosts the T as well as a bunch of de-industrialized areas where Trump would be popular), explicitly slants the poll towards him, and still can't get a Trump victory, he's probably losing PA.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Shouldn’t you be able to adjust for the possibility of “shy” voters by just including the 2016 vote question? 

If this question looked right, you’d only be underestimating Trump support if people were simultaneously willing to say they voted for Trump in 2016 but were unwilling to say they will vote for him again.

If anything, I’d think it would be the opposite: people who have changed their minds and are now voting Biden may be embarrassed to admit their mistake and say they voted for Trump back in 2016. 

[wbrocks67]

If Trafalgar starts from the assumption that shy Trump voters exist (a very iffy one in a place like PA, which hosts the T as well as a bunch of de-industrialized areas where Trump would be popular), explicitly slants the poll towards him, and still can't get a Trump victory, he's probably losing PA.

and as someone who lives in Pennsylvania, the Trump voters in this state are many things but definitely not "shy"

[Skill and Chance]

This is genuinely Biden's best poll of the week.  If Trafalgar can't find a Trump lead in PA...

[Gass3268]

This is genuinely Biden's best poll of the week.  If Trafalgar can't find a Trump lead in PA...

It's their second Biden +2 this week in PA.

[MATTROSE94]

Add about 10 points in Donald Trumps favor and then this poll will be accurate (*sarcasm*).

[Hammy]

If Trafalgar starts from the assumption that shy Trump voters exist (a very iffy one in a place like PA, which hosts the T as well as a bunch of de-industrialized areas where Trump would be popular), explicitly slants the poll towards him, and still can't get a Trump victory, he's probably losing PA.

and as someone who lives in Pennsylvania, the Trump voters in this state are many things but definitely not "shy"

They exist when it comes to polls, these are the same people who on this forum act like they're not voting for him in public and then try and justify everything he does, the same people who drop his approvals for awhile anytime there's controversy and then quietly return to him later--the people who want to pretend and convince themselves that they have standards. And Trafalgar did perform well in some Great Lakes states and Florida (they were complete garbage elsewhere, basically anywhere whites weren't the overwhelming majority)

And if Trafalgar has Trump losing in Pennsylvania--one of their most accurate locations--Trump's losing and there's no way to spin it. Especially given their polls still tended to have a +2 R bias even in the most accurate polls.

[Gass3268]

If Trafalgar starts from the assumption that shy Trump voters exist (a very iffy one in a place like PA, which hosts the T as well as a bunch of de-industrialized areas where Trump would be popular), explicitly slants the poll towards him, and still can't get a Trump victory, he's probably losing PA.

and as someone who lives in Pennsylvania, the Trump voters in this state are many things but definitely not "shy"

They exist when it comes to polls, these are the same people who on this forum act like they're not voting for him in public and then try and justify everything he does, the same people who drop his approvals for awhile anytime there's controversy and then quietly return to him later--the people who want to pretend and convince themselves that they have standards. And Trafalgar did perform well in some Great Lakes states and Florida (they were complete garbage elsewhere, basically anywhere whites weren't the overwhelming majority)

And if Trafalgar has Trump losing in Pennsylvania--one of their most accurate locations--Trump's losing and there's no way to spin it. Especially given their polls still tended to have a +2 R bias even in the most accurate polls.

There have been a number of experiments/studies on this, there is no Shy Trump voter effect.

[Hammy]

If Trafalgar starts from the assumption that shy Trump voters exist (a very iffy one in a place like PA, which hosts the T as well as a bunch of de-industrialized areas where Trump would be popular), explicitly slants the poll towards him, and still can't get a Trump victory, he's probably losing PA.

and as someone who lives in Pennsylvania, the Trump voters in this state are many things but definitely not "shy"

They exist when it comes to polls, these are the same people who on this forum act like they're not voting for him in public and then try and justify everything he does, the same people who drop his approvals for awhile anytime there's controversy and then quietly return to him later--the people who want to pretend and convince themselves that they have standards. And Trafalgar did perform well in some Great Lakes states and Florida (they were complete garbage elsewhere, basically anywhere whites weren't the overwhelming majority)

And if Trafalgar has Trump losing in Pennsylvania--one of their most accurate locations--Trump's losing and there's no way to spin it. Especially given their polls still tended to have a +2 R bias even in the most accurate polls.

There have been a number of experiments/studies on this, there is no Shy Trump voter effect.

People keep saying this with evidence. What they have proven are that people are not lying to the pollsters, or (as I had originally suspected) refusing en masse to answer them.

What is reality, and is proven by the fact Trump's numbers keep going up and down, there are people who simply keep telling themselves that they aren't voting for Trump, and then do anyway.

Whatever label you want to apply, these people exist and there are quite a few on this forum even.

[CellarDoor]

Biden +7 confirmed.

[wbrocks67]

If Trafalgar starts from the assumption that shy Trump voters exist (a very iffy one in a place like PA, which hosts the T as well as a bunch of de-industrialized areas where Trump would be popular), explicitly slants the poll towards him, and still can't get a Trump victory, he's probably losing PA.

and as someone who lives in Pennsylvania, the Trump voters in this state are many things but definitely not "shy"

They exist when it comes to polls, these are the same people who on this forum act like they're not voting for him in public and then try and justify everything he does, the same people who drop his approvals for awhile anytime there's controversy and then quietly return to him later--the people who want to pretend and convince themselves that they have standards. And Trafalgar did perform well in some Great Lakes states and Florida (they were complete garbage elsewhere, basically anywhere whites weren't the overwhelming majority)

And if Trafalgar has Trump losing in Pennsylvania--one of their most accurate locations--Trump's losing and there's no way to spin it. Especially given their polls still tended to have a +2 R bias even in the most accurate polls.

There have been a number of experiments/studies on this, there is no Shy Trump voter effect.

People keep saying this with evidence. What they have proven are that people are not lying to the pollsters, or (as I had originally suspected) refusing en masse to answer them.

What is reality, and is proven by the fact Trump's numbers keep going up and down, there are people who simply keep telling themselves that they aren't voting for Trump, and then do anyway.

Whatever label you want to apply, these people exist and there are quite a few on this forum even.

There are just as many people who wouldn't admit voting Trump as voting for Biden. Why this only somehow goes Trump's way is beyond me.

[Gass3268]

If Trafalgar starts from the assumption that shy Trump voters exist (a very iffy one in a place like PA, which hosts the T as well as a bunch of de-industrialized areas where Trump would be popular), explicitly slants the poll towards him, and still can't get a Trump victory, he's probably losing PA.

and as someone who lives in Pennsylvania, the Trump voters in this state are many things but definitely not "shy"

They exist when it comes to polls, these are the same people who on this forum act like they're not voting for him in public and then try and justify everything he does, the same people who drop his approvals for awhile anytime there's controversy and then quietly return to him later--the people who want to pretend and convince themselves that they have standards. And Trafalgar did perform well in some Great Lakes states and Florida (they were complete garbage elsewhere, basically anywhere whites weren't the overwhelming majority)

And if Trafalgar has Trump losing in Pennsylvania--one of their most accurate locations--Trump's losing and there's no way to spin it. Especially given their polls still tended to have a +2 R bias even in the most accurate polls.

There have been a number of experiments/studies on this, there is no Shy Trump voter effect.

People keep saying this with evidence. What they have proven are that people are not lying to the pollsters, or (as I had originally suspected) refusing en masse to answer them.

What is reality, and is proven by the fact Trump's numbers keep going up and down, there are people who simply keep telling themselves that they aren't voting for Trump, and then do anyway.

Whatever label you want to apply, these people exist and there are quite a few on this forum even.

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1288442187848527872?s=20

https://twitter.com/JayReding/status/1308151342721052673?s=20

[Hammy]

If Trafalgar starts from the assumption that shy Trump voters exist (a very iffy one in a place like PA, which hosts the T as well as a bunch of de-industrialized areas where Trump would be popular), explicitly slants the poll towards him, and still can't get a Trump victory, he's probably losing PA.

and as someone who lives in Pennsylvania, the Trump voters in this state are many things but definitely not "shy"

They exist when it comes to polls, these are the same people who on this forum act like they're not voting for him in public and then try and justify everything he does, the same people who drop his approvals for awhile anytime there's controversy and then quietly return to him later--the people who want to pretend and convince themselves that they have standards. And Trafalgar did perform well in some Great Lakes states and Florida (they were complete garbage elsewhere, basically anywhere whites weren't the overwhelming majority)

And if Trafalgar has Trump losing in Pennsylvania--one of their most accurate locations--Trump's losing and there's no way to spin it. Especially given their polls still tended to have a +2 R bias even in the most accurate polls.

There have been a number of experiments/studies on this, there is no Shy Trump voter effect.

People keep saying this with evidence. What they have proven are that people are not lying to the pollsters, or (as I had originally suspected) refusing en masse to answer them.

What is reality, and is proven by the fact Trump's numbers keep going up and down, there are people who simply keep telling themselves that they aren't voting for Trump, and then do anyway.

Whatever label you want to apply, these people exist and there are quite a few on this forum even.

There are just as many people who wouldn't admit voting Trump as voting for Biden. Why this only somehow goes Trump's way is beyond me.

Are you of the belief that there is an "undecided" option on the ballot? Polling in Florida and the Upper Midwest has tended to have undecideds break in favor of Republicans--the same happened in 2018 in those areas in fact.

There are in fact Biden voters being missed, and I've said both will overperform their polling numbers. But Trump will still overperform by slightly more in these areas, same as the Dems will in a lot of Sunbelt states.

[ProudModerate2]

They are still Trash-falgar.

[Hammy]

They are still Trash-falgar.

My key point here is if they're even showing Biden leading, Trump is not winning PA.

[DrScholl]

Battleground PA. But think Trump loses due to some shady stuff.

Lol.

[CivicParticipant]

Battleground PA. But think Trump loses due to some shady stuff.

Lol.

I can assure you that my vote will not be thrown in the trashcan. Let's get PA close!