CA-25 - Normington, Petts & Associates (D): Biden +8
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  CA-25 - Normington, Petts & Associates (D): Biden +8		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: CA-25 - Normington, Petts & Associates (D): Biden +8  (Read 504 times)
VAR
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Junior Chimp
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« on: September 25, 2020, 05:24:32 AM »
Sep 21-23, 400 LV, MoE: 4.9%

Biden 53%
Trump 45%

House race: Smith 51-45

https://nmcdn.io/e186d21f8c7946a19faed23c3da2f0da/7c9798eaafd54081881797bf9a163295/files/research/CA25-Poll-092420.pdf
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Dumbo
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« Reply #1 on: September 25, 2020, 05:36:56 AM »
« Edited: September 25, 2020, 05:51:35 AM by Dumbo »
was Clinton +6,7, Newsom +2,2
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: September 25, 2020, 05:39:38 AM »
I really don't know what to take of this margin. CA polling always underestimates Dems so if thats the case, this is very good, but I guess even in reality, even a few % overperformance for Biden from HRC would be good since HRC won it by 30.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #3 on: September 25, 2020, 06:21:15 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 25, 2020, 05:39:38 AM
I really don't know what to take of this margin. CA polling always underestimates Dems so if thats the case, this is very good, but I guess even in reality, even a few % overperformance for Biden from HRC would be good since HRC won it by 30.

HRC won CD-25 by +30% in '16???

Numbers don't jive since it was a 53-47 R CD back in '16 and a 54-46 D CD back in '18...

Am I missing something here?
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #4 on: September 25, 2020, 06:33:59 AM »
Quote from: NOVA Green on September 25, 2020, 06:21:15 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 25, 2020, 05:39:38 AM
I really don't know what to take of this margin. CA polling always underestimates Dems so if thats the case, this is very good, but I guess even in reality, even a few % overperformance for Biden from HRC would be good since HRC won it by 30.

HRC won CD-25 by +30% in '16???

Numbers don't jive since it was a 53-47 R CD back in '16 and a 54-46 D CD back in '18...

Am I missing something here?

I'm sure he means HRC won the state by 30.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: September 25, 2020, 06:37:02 AM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on September 25, 2020, 06:33:59 AM
Quote from: NOVA Green on September 25, 2020, 06:21:15 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 25, 2020, 05:39:38 AM
I really don't know what to take of this margin. CA polling always underestimates Dems so if thats the case, this is very good, but I guess even in reality, even a few % overperformance for Biden from HRC would be good since HRC won it by 30.

HRC won CD-25 by +30% in '16???

Numbers don't jive since it was a 53-47 R CD back in '16 and a 54-46 D CD back in '18...

Am I missing something here?

I'm sure he means HRC won the state by 30.

Yes, sorry. So if Biden is winning here by 8, he's prob winning statewide by like 32-33.
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