Douglas County, CO - Myers Research (D): Trump +1
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  Douglas County, CO - Myers Research (D): Trump +1		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Douglas County, CO - Myers Research (D): Trump +1  (Read 1472 times)
Gass3268
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« on: September 24, 2020, 06:43:30 PM »
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Don't blame me I voted for Harris
PittsburghSteel
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« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2020, 06:44:37 PM »
Maybe those polls showing Biden up 15 points in the state are on to something.
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Trends Are Fake
Stuart98
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« Reply #2 on: September 24, 2020, 06:44:56 PM »
County voted for Trump by 18 points in 2016. This sounds much too good to be true.
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Paul Biya isn’t going far enough
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #3 on: September 24, 2020, 06:45:09 PM »
I don’t buy it.
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cvparty
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« Reply #4 on: September 24, 2020, 06:46:12 PM »
i thought this was nebraska for a second and got so confused lol
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #5 on: September 24, 2020, 06:57:23 PM »
This is probably an outlier. Every Republican in 2018 won this by at least 15.

That being said, I could very well see this in the single digits, assuming it goes the way over demographically similar counties like Delaware OH, Hamliton IN, Ozaukee WI, or Carver MN.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6 on: September 24, 2020, 11:17:40 PM »
Quote from: Stuart98 on September 24, 2020, 06:44:56 PM
County voted for Trump by 18 points in 2016. This sounds much too good to be true.

Although it might sound too good to be true, it appears to be the type of place, where one might expect to continue to see dramatic DEM swings in 2020 (55-37 Trump in '16) from (62-36 Romney in '12).  +8% D swing, despite hardly any increase in DEM support levels.

It is an extremely wealthy exurban type county (MHI ~ $ 105.8k/Yr).

Still, if we look at the swings within the wealthiest community in Douglas County, as I noted on another thread a bit over three years back:

Colorado- Douglas County-- Castle Pines Village- MHI $206k/Yr, Pop 4.0k

2016: (30 D- 62 R)       (+23% Dem Swing from '12)

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=267040.msg5709204#msg5709204

There is still a considerable amount of room for DEMs to expand, as 3rd Party '16 voters vote DEM, not to mention if we shave ~3% off of Trump's '20 number and move it to Biden, this County looks like a tossup...

So yeah--- agreed it might be a bit of a stretch for Douglas to flip, especially if we assign the "internal polling" rules, but it's not as if we haven't seen other educated wealthier areas move quickly against the Republican brand with Trump as their figurehead in recent years...
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #7 on: September 25, 2020, 11:10:48 AM »
^ I mean, there could also be a bit of a Dem ceiling in these places, not sure why nobody ever floats that idea...
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EastOfEden
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« Reply #8 on: September 25, 2020, 11:45:58 AM »
Hey Bagel23 - I told you so. Tongue

It's Loudoun copy/pasted into Colorado. Safe D by 2026.
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Paul Biya isn’t going far enough
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #9 on: September 25, 2020, 12:10:10 PM »
Quote from: EastOfEden on September 25, 2020, 11:45:58 AM
Hey Bagel23 - I told you so. Tongue

It's Loudoun copy/pasted into Colorado. Safe D by 2026.
I assume that means Arapahoe=Fairfax
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #10 on: September 26, 2020, 11:08:29 AM »
Completely believable
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Paul Biya isn’t going far enough
Forumlurker161
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« Reply #11 on: September 26, 2020, 11:35:58 AM »
No.
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kph14
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« Reply #12 on: September 26, 2020, 02:28:24 PM »
I can see Biden lose it by high single digits but not this close
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Duke of York
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« Reply #13 on: September 26, 2020, 03:38:08 PM »
If Trump is struggling this badly in a county that hasn't voted Democrat since 1964 hes in serious trouble.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #14 on: September 26, 2020, 04:49:56 PM »
Quote from: kph14 on September 26, 2020, 02:28:24 PM
I can see Biden lose it by high single digits but not this close
I'd say mid single digits(5-6)
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