Emerson: Biden +4

[wbrocks67]

Biden 48 (-1)
Trump 44 (-3)

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/september-2020-biden-holds-his-lead-voters-split-on-supreme-court-nominee-timetable

It feels like every time we get a good set of polls showing Biden lead expanding nationally, we get a bunch of Emerson/HarrisX/Rasmussen to come in drag it down again.

[redjohn]

Yeah, the national polls and state polls seem to reverse course each week. One week Biden is doing great nationally and subpar in state polls, the next he's dominating in state polls and lagging nationally.

[wbrocks67]

This is out of step with literally every other single poll, so we can continue to throw Emerson right into the garbage

When asked if they think the Senate should confirm a Supreme Court Justice replacement nominated by President Trump now or by whoever wins the presidential election: 48% said they should vote to confirm now and 46% said they should wait till after the January inauguration

[Horus]

Trump at 44 and losing support... Yet Biden also loses support. This is definitely a pattern now...

[Dr. Arch]

Trump at 44 and losing support... Yet Biden also loses support. This is definitely a pattern now...

Read above about the leaners.

[Dr. Arch]

It,s 54 to 46 when undecided are pushed, which is actually a pretty solid lead for Biden.

OP should add this to the title.

[Gass3268]

Biden surging

[Alaska2392]

It,s 54 to 46 when undecided are pushed, which is actually a pretty solid lead for Biden.

OP should add this to the title.

It is saying that when undecided are pushed they themselves split 54% for Trump and 46% for Biden.

It isn't making a claim about changes to the overall margin.

This is an improvement in Biden's margin lead since last month, if only by 2%

[kireev]

It,s 54 to 46 when undecided are pushed, which is actually a pretty solid lead for Biden.

OP should add this to the title.

It is saying that when undecided are pushed they themselves split 54% for Trump and 46% for Biden.

It isn't making a claim about changes to the overall margin.

This is an improvement in Biden's margin lead since last month, if only by 2%

Oops, my bad!

[Dr. Arch]

It,s 54 to 46 when undecided are pushed, which is actually a pretty solid lead for Biden.

OP should add this to the title.

It is saying that when undecided are pushed they themselves split 54% for Trump and 46% for Biden.

It isn't making a claim about changes to the overall margin.

This is an improvement in Biden's margin lead since last month, if only by 2%

Got it. Thanks for the clarification. I couldn't read it from my phone.

[Skill and Chance]

Hmmm... Biden actually gained in this poll from last month, but he could still be screwed in the EC with this PV margin.  Or maybe not- Emerson just had Biden leading in NC last week.

[Devout Centrist]

MTurk strikes again

[Calthrina950]

Again, I don't understand the dislike this forum has for Emerson. Biden is still performing better in this poll than Clinton's final 2016 result, and I think the poll provides an indication of the share Trump will receive-which is about 44-45%. It is highly unlikely that he drops lower than that, even in a worst-case scenario for him: this country is simply too polarized for it to happen.

[Skill and Chance]

Again, I don't understand the dislike this forum has for Emerson. Biden is still performing better in this poll than Clinton's final 2016 result, and I think the poll provides an indicate of the share Trump will receive-which is about 44-45%. It is highly unlikely that he drops lower than that, even in a worst-case scenario for him: this country is simply too polarized for it to happen.

Yes I do think this is going to be more of a 1976 than a 1980.  I'm not convinced Carter's 1976 margin carries the EC for Biden, but Biden is officially holding up better than Carter in the PV now (Carter nearly blew a 30% lead), even though it has closed somewhat.

Also the Biden strength with seniors and the polling showing much of the Midwest is snapping back just enough fits with the one last ride with the old coalition vibe of 1976. 

[Calthrina950]

Again, I don't understand the dislike this forum has for Emerson. Biden is still performing better in this poll than Clinton's final 2016 result, and I think the poll provides an indicate of the share Trump will receive-which is about 44-45%. It is highly unlikely that he drops lower than that, even in a worst-case scenario for him: this country is simply too polarized for it to happen.

Yes I do think this is going to be more of a 1976 than a 1980.  I'm not convinced Carter's 1976 margin carries the EC for Biden, but Biden is officially holding up better than Carter in the PV now (Carter nearly blew a 30% lead), even though it has closed somewhat.

Also the Biden strength with seniors and the polling showing much of the Midwest is snapping back just enough fits with the one last ride with the old coalition vibe of 1976. 

I would agree with this. It would be interesting if after all this, Trump manages to hold Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas, with Biden only flipping Arizona and (perhaps) Florida, in addition to the three Upper Midwestern States. It's astonishing to me how loyal Trump's base has been, and continues to be, towards him, although I perfectly understand the reasons why.

[Hammy]

Again, I don't understand the dislike this forum has for Emerson. Biden is still performing better in this poll than Clinton's final 2016 result, and I think the poll provides an indicate of the share Trump will receive-which is about 44-45%. It is highly unlikely that he drops lower than that, even in a worst-case scenario for him: this country is simply too polarized for it to happen.

Emerson doesn't seem to have a bias (like Rasmussen for example) but has a history of releasing generally poor quality polls as a whole.

[EastOfEden]

Yeah, the national polls and state polls seem to reverse course each week. One week Biden is doing great nationally and subpar in state polls, the next he's dominating in state polls and lagging nationally.

I have to wonder if there's some kind of mathematical explanation for this.

[Horus]

Yeah, the national polls and state polls seem to reverse course each week. One week Biden is doing great nationally and subpar in state polls, the next he's dominating in state polls and lagging nationally.

I have to wonder if there's some kind of mathematical explanation for this.

I think states polls tend to lag national...or maybe it's the reverse

[EastOfEden]

Yeah, the national polls and state polls seem to reverse course each week. One week Biden is doing great nationally and subpar in state polls, the next he's dominating in state polls and lagging nationally.

I have to wonder if there's some kind of mathematical explanation for this.

I think states polls tend to lag national...or maybe it's the reverse

I know there was one poll that did weird sample stuff and someone found it had a consistent 14-day oscillation. Maybe there's a similar phenomenon happening with all of these.

[Skill and Chance]

Again, I don't understand the dislike this forum has for Emerson. Biden is still performing better in this poll than Clinton's final 2016 result, and I think the poll provides an indicate of the share Trump will receive-which is about 44-45%. It is highly unlikely that he drops lower than that, even in a worst-case scenario for him: this country is simply too polarized for it to happen.

Yes I do think this is going to be more of a 1976 than a 1980.  I'm not convinced Carter's 1976 margin carries the EC for Biden, but Biden is officially holding up better than Carter in the PV now (Carter nearly blew a 30% lead), even though it has closed somewhat.

Also the Biden strength with seniors and the polling showing much of the Midwest is snapping back just enough fits with the one last ride with the old coalition vibe of 1976. 

I would agree with this. It would be interesting if after all this, Trump manages to hold Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas, with Biden only flipping Arizona and (perhaps) Florida, in addition to the three Upper Midwestern States. It's astonishing to me how loyal Trump's base has been, and continues to be, towards him, although I perfectly understand the reasons why.

Hmmm... my Carter scenario would be this with Biden up by 3.5-4.0 in the PV:

A whole bunch of states are nearly tied right now.  I am really leery of 1-2% Dem polling leads in Florida and NC after 2014/16/18.  Ohio also did surprise on the R side in 2016/18.  On the other hand, the tie in Georgia is probably real (polls were dead on in 2016/18) and the state is incredibly inelastic.  I don't think it swings back toward Trump if the PV tightens.  If I were to give Biden something else on this map, it would be Georgia.  

[Buzz]

Emerson is quality pollster, especially compared to most of the crap that gets posted on here.

[Niemeyerite]

Emerson is quality pollster, especially compared to most of the crap that gets posted on here.

And almost all of them show the same: Trump stuck in the low 40s.

[You are responsible]

+2 -> +4

[Calthrina950]

Again, I don't understand the dislike this forum has for Emerson. Biden is still performing better in this poll than Clinton's final 2016 result, and I think the poll provides an indicate of the share Trump will receive-which is about 44-45%. It is highly unlikely that he drops lower than that, even in a worst-case scenario for him: this country is simply too polarized for it to happen.

Emerson doesn't seem to have a bias (like Rasmussen for example) but has a history of releasing generally poor quality polls as a whole.

I'm not so sure about this. They've had more realistic numbers for this race thus far than some other pollsters have had. Moreover, they have an A- rating from 538, which puts them roughly on par with other pollsters such as Fox News, ABC News/The Washington Post, NYT/Siena, Suffolk University, Monmouth University, Survey USA, and NBC/Marist (all of which have A, A+, or A- ratings), and puts them ahead of Quinnipiac (which has a B+), PPP (B), Harris Analytics (C), YouGov (B), and even Gallup (B).

[wbrocks67]

Emerson now uses MTurk. That doesn't lean quality.