Fox News: Biden+11 in NV, +5 in OH, +7 in PA,

[Alben Barkley]

RV and LV gap seems pretty small here, NV is Biden+10, OH is Biden+5, PA is Biden+8. The ABC/WaPo LV screens seemed to screen out around 18% of RV, here it is about 7-8% of RV.

This seems more sensible. Especially because I think turnout will be quite high this year.

[CellarDoor]

Very excited to watch Karl Rove have another meltdown when Ohio puts Biden over the top.

That is one of my favorite election memories.  I wish I could relive that night all the time.

[Alben Barkley]

Very excited to watch Karl Rove have another meltdown when Ohio puts Biden over the top.

2012 was a great year. 2020 could redeem itself if it suddenly becomes a 2012 throwback in the closing stretch.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Total silence from blue avatars lol

[psychprofessor]

Very excited to watch Karl Rove have another meltdown when Ohio puts Biden over the top.

2012 was a great year. 2020 could redeem itself if it suddenly becomes a 2012 throwback in the closing stretch.

Noooo, way too stressful. I'd prefer more like the closing in 2008 when Obama won going away and most national polls were high single digit, low double digit leads.

[wbrocks67]

Fox polled Ohio and Nevada around the same time during the 2016 cycle and found Trump+5 and Trump+4 respectively.

This is what is intriguing. At first you could say they're just making the same mistake again, but at least in OH, they were on the money with Trump doing really well in 2016, and in NV much like everyone else, underpolled.

So those two things make these polls all the more astonishing.

I will say about PA though, again for the 500th time, most high quality pollsters like this one have had the race closer to 6-8 pts than the 2/3 that some of the junkier ones do.

[wbrocks67]

RV and LV gap seems pretty small here, NV is Biden+10, OH is Biden+5, PA is Biden+8. The ABC/WaPo LV screens seemed to screen out around 18% of RV, here it is about 7-8% of RV.

This seems more sensible. Especially because I think turnout will be quite high this year.

Yeah some of these polls with wild 3/4 pt swings among RV/LV are just ridiculous. These are reasonable, Biden =, Biden +1, and Biden -1 among RV/LV

[YE]

Ralston seems to express doubt with results (probably NV at least)

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1309253287183413248

He’s just trying to play the horse race narrative as he usually does right before early voting.

[Mr. Illini]

Absolutely gorgeous

[Alben Barkley]

Very excited to watch Karl Rove have another meltdown when Ohio puts Biden over the top.

2012 was a great year. 2020 could redeem itself if it suddenly becomes a 2012 throwback in the closing stretch.

Noooo, way too stressful. I'd prefer more like the closing in 2008 when Obama won going away and most national polls were high single digit, low double digit leads.

Well in terms of polling, it IS like that right now.

I just have fond memories of 2012 in general. Among other things, a time when even if the Republican won, it wouldn't have been the end of the world? Seems like paradise compared to today.

[Pericles]

OH will be more than just two points more Republican than PA, but I never bought IA being more winnable for Democrats than OH.

Oddly enough, those two states are just 2012 with a uniform shift of 2 points to the left in this poll.

[KaiserDave]

F*** yeah

(Not sure if I believe this though)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Are these the first high-quality state polls that are entirely post-RBG death?

[YE]

I’ve been less bullish on OH relative to the forum consensus but the state is basically a tossup at this point.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH will be more than just two points more Republican than PA, but I never bought IA being more winnable for Democrats than OH.

OH will vote to the right of IA, wanna change our bet from TX and IA to OH and IA

Hillary was a poor fit for OH, and Kasich already endorsed Biden. Plus, Biden and Obama won the state in both elections. OH isn't MO or IN

[sguberman]

Very excited to watch Karl Rove have another meltdown when Ohio puts Biden over the top.

That is one of my favorite election memories.  I wish I could relive that night all the time.

What's kind of funny, is that if you actually saw what the results were at the moment, it wasn't that unreasonable to think that the call was premature.

[Hammy]

Funny this should come in the midst of the PENNSYLVANIA IS TIGHTENING! debate.

[Stuart98]

What are the odds Biden wins Ohio by 5 points and Dems don't pick up any house seats in the state?

[CellarDoor]

Very excited to watch Karl Rove have another meltdown when Ohio puts Biden over the top.

2012 was a great year. 2020 could redeem itself if it suddenly becomes a 2012 throwback in the closing stretch.

Noooo, way too stressful. I'd prefer more like the closing in 2008 when Obama won going away and most national polls were high single digit, low double digit leads.

From a National polling perspective, Biden is doing just as well this year as Obama was in 2008.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

[wbrocks67]

Color me skeptical about those OH and NV margins. But, that said, keep digging your heads in the sand about Ohio, blue avatars. It's a tossup.

Nevada has a high number of undecideds and probably a good chunk will go to Trump--52-46 for example would be more realistic as an example and could come from that in the end. Probably the same for Ohio.

The result is 52-41 right now. So nearly all of the undecideds would go Trump and 0% to Biden? That seems incredibly unlikely.

[Holmes]

What are the odds Biden wins Ohio by 5 points and Dems don't pick up any house seats in the state?

OH-01 would flip if Biden wins the state by 5.

[Sirius_]

NV Safe D > Safe D
PA Lean D > Lean D
OH Tossup > Tossup

Tbh it was foolish to ever rate Ohio anything more than Lean R.

[CellarDoor]

https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1309262152906215424

Perhaps it's not a good idea to dismiss the deaths from COVID, most of which were 65+.

[Buzz]

Fox News has been riding that D hard this cycle.  Makes everything they put out skeptical.  All of Biden’s best polls in most states are Fox.


Likely junk.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I bet $5 some random C/D-grade pollster (Let's go with Rasmussen) releases a poll before the debates showing Trump+1 in PA and everyone returns to their paranoid states from yesterday