Fox News: Biden+11 in NV, +5 in OH, +7 in PA,
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 24, 2024, 11:44:14 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  Fox News: Biden+11 in NV, +5 in OH, +7 in PA,
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5
Author Topic: Fox News: Biden+11 in NV, +5 in OH, +7 in PA,  (Read 7044 times)
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,284
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: September 24, 2020, 05:20:49 PM »

RV and LV gap seems pretty small here, NV is Biden+10, OH is Biden+5, PA is Biden+8. The ABC/WaPo LV screens seemed to screen out around 18% of RV, here it is about 7-8% of RV.

This seems more sensible. Especially because I think turnout will be quite high this year.
Logged
CellarDoor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 766
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: September 24, 2020, 05:21:17 PM »

Very excited to watch Karl Rove have another meltdown when Ohio puts Biden over the top.

That is one of my favorite election memories.  I wish I could relive that night all the time.
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,284
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: September 24, 2020, 05:21:35 PM »

Very excited to watch Karl Rove have another meltdown when Ohio puts Biden over the top.

2012 was a great year. 2020 could redeem itself if it suddenly becomes a 2012 throwback in the closing stretch.
Logged
Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.
diskymike44
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,833


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: September 24, 2020, 05:21:39 PM »

Total silence from blue avatars lol
Logged
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: September 24, 2020, 05:26:15 PM »

Very excited to watch Karl Rove have another meltdown when Ohio puts Biden over the top.

2012 was a great year. 2020 could redeem itself if it suddenly becomes a 2012 throwback in the closing stretch.

Noooo, way too stressful. I'd prefer more like the closing in 2008 when Obama won going away and most national polls were high single digit, low double digit leads.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,710


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: September 24, 2020, 05:26:23 PM »

Fox polled Ohio and Nevada around the same time during the 2016 cycle and found Trump+5 and Trump+4 respectively.

This is what is intriguing. At first you could say they're just making the same mistake again, but at least in OH, they were on the money with Trump doing really well in 2016, and in NV much like everyone else, underpolled.

So those two things make these polls all the more astonishing.

I will say about PA though, again for the 500th time, most high quality pollsters like this one have had the race closer to 6-8 pts than the 2/3 that some of the junkier ones do.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,710


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: September 24, 2020, 05:27:03 PM »

RV and LV gap seems pretty small here, NV is Biden+10, OH is Biden+5, PA is Biden+8. The ABC/WaPo LV screens seemed to screen out around 18% of RV, here it is about 7-8% of RV.

This seems more sensible. Especially because I think turnout will be quite high this year.

Yeah some of these polls with wild 3/4 pt swings among RV/LV are just ridiculous. These are reasonable, Biden =, Biden +1, and Biden -1 among RV/LV
Logged
YE
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,903


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: September 24, 2020, 05:28:06 PM »

Ralston seems to express doubt with results (probably NV at least)



He’s just trying to play the horse race narrative as he usually does right before early voting.
Logged
Mr. Illini
liberty142
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,854
United States


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -3.30

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: September 24, 2020, 05:28:10 PM »

Absolutely gorgeous
Logged
Alben Barkley
KYWildman
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,284
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.97, S: -5.74

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: September 24, 2020, 05:29:30 PM »

Very excited to watch Karl Rove have another meltdown when Ohio puts Biden over the top.

2012 was a great year. 2020 could redeem itself if it suddenly becomes a 2012 throwback in the closing stretch.

Noooo, way too stressful. I'd prefer more like the closing in 2008 when Obama won going away and most national polls were high single digit, low double digit leads.

Well in terms of polling, it IS like that right now.

I just have fond memories of 2012 in general. Among other things, a time when even if the Republican won, it wouldn't have been the end of the world? Seems like paradise compared to today.
Logged
Pericles
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,152


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: September 24, 2020, 05:30:00 PM »

OH will be more than just two points more Republican than PA, but I never bought IA being more winnable for Democrats than OH.

Oddly enough, those two states are just 2012 with a uniform shift of 2 points to the left in this poll.
Logged
KaiserDave
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,650
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.81, S: -5.39

P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: September 24, 2020, 05:30:45 PM »

F*** yeah

(Not sure if I believe this though)
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,245


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: September 24, 2020, 05:31:27 PM »

Are these the first high-quality state polls that are entirely post-RBG death?
Logged
YE
Moderator
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,903


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: September 24, 2020, 05:33:10 PM »

I’ve been less bullish on OH relative to the forum consensus but the state is basically a tossup at this point.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 89,716
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: September 24, 2020, 05:35:31 PM »

OH will be more than just two points more Republican than PA, but I never bought IA being more winnable for Democrats than OH.

OH will vote to the right of IA, wanna change our bet from TX and IA to OH and IA


Hillary was a poor fit for OH, and Kasich already endorsed Biden. Plus, Biden and Obama won the state in both elections. OH isn't MO or IN
Logged
sguberman
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 301
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: September 24, 2020, 05:35:37 PM »

Very excited to watch Karl Rove have another meltdown when Ohio puts Biden over the top.

That is one of my favorite election memories.  I wish I could relive that night all the time.
What's kind of funny, is that if you actually saw what the results were at the moment, it wasn't that unreasonable to think that the call was premature.
Logged
Hammy
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,702
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: September 24, 2020, 05:36:40 PM »

Funny this should come in the midst of the PENNSYLVANIA IS TIGHTENING! debate.
Logged
Stuart98
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,788
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.35, S: -5.83

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: September 24, 2020, 05:37:16 PM »

What are the odds Biden wins Ohio by 5 points and Dems don't pick up any house seats in the state?
Logged
CellarDoor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 766
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: September 24, 2020, 05:37:28 PM »

Very excited to watch Karl Rove have another meltdown when Ohio puts Biden over the top.

2012 was a great year. 2020 could redeem itself if it suddenly becomes a 2012 throwback in the closing stretch.

Noooo, way too stressful. I'd prefer more like the closing in 2008 when Obama won going away and most national polls were high single digit, low double digit leads.

From a National polling perspective, Biden is doing just as well this year as Obama was in 2008.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,710


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: September 24, 2020, 05:38:27 PM »

Color me skeptical about those OH and NV margins. But, that said, keep digging your heads in the sand about Ohio, blue avatars. It's a tossup.

Nevada has a high number of undecideds and probably a good chunk will go to Trump--52-46 for example would be more realistic as an example and could come from that in the end. Probably the same for Ohio.

The result is 52-41 right now. So nearly all of the undecideds would go Trump and 0% to Biden? That seems incredibly unlikely.
Logged
Holmes
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,769
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: September 24, 2020, 05:43:48 PM »

What are the odds Biden wins Ohio by 5 points and Dems don't pick up any house seats in the state?

OH-01 would flip if Biden wins the state by 5.
Logged
Sirius_
Ninja0428
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,119
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.00, S: -7.91


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: September 24, 2020, 05:48:25 PM »

NV Safe D > Safe D
PA Lean D > Lean D
OH Tossup > Tossup

Tbh it was foolish to ever rate Ohio anything more than Lean R.
Logged
CellarDoor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 766
United States


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -4.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: September 24, 2020, 05:48:33 PM »



Perhaps it's not a good idea to dismiss the deaths from COVID, most of which were 65+.
Logged
Buzz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,186


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: September 24, 2020, 05:49:09 PM »

Fox News has been riding that D hard this cycle.  Makes everything they put out skeptical.  All of Biden’s best polls in most states are Fox.


Likely junk.
Logged
Interlocutor is just not there yet
Interlocutor
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,204


Political Matrix
E: -3.48, S: -5.04

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: September 24, 2020, 05:50:23 PM »

I bet $5 some random C/D-grade pollster (Let's go with Rasmussen) releases a poll before the debates showing Trump+1 in PA and everyone returns to their paranoid states from yesterday
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.051 seconds with 12 queries.