TX-Quinnipiac: Cornyn +8

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

First poll that has Cornyn actually at 50%? Definitely Lean Republican. Too bad Beto wasted all the momentum he had from his last run for his failed presidential campaign. Hegar isn't a bad candidate, but Beto was just an awesome candidate. He'd do better than Joe Biden in Texas polls if he ran for senate instead, that I'm sure of.

Well in terms of probability its definitely Likely as its very hard to see any path for Hegar if shes underperforming Biden by 2-3 points , heck even thats True if she underperforms Biden by 1 point its hard.


Basically if Hegar underperforms Biden by 3 points , this race is Safe R

if Hegar underperforms Biden by 2 points, this race is Likely R but closer to Safe than Lean

If Hegar Underperforms Biden by 1 point , this race is still Likely R but closer to Lean than Safe.

Cornyn isn’t over performing Trump at all. They’re both at 50%, if he had actual crossover support he’d be getting a lot higher. When all is said and done most undecideds will go to Hegar. This is a tossup, whatever % Trump gets Cornyn will aswell.

This isnt close to a tossup lol

Saving this for when undecideds break 2-1 for Hegar and Cornyn wins by >3

If Biden wins Texas by a point and Cornyn wins Texas by a point then it would prove my point that Texas Senate Race is Likely R

Final Margin is no the same as probability of winning

No. If Biden is winning TX, there’s a 50-50 chance of Cornyn winning, due to how correlated the races will be. That’s the very definition of a tossup. Are you saying he has a 70-80% chance of winning if Biden carries the state? lol

That doesn't make any sense at all. Probability is only useful when you don't yet know the outcome of any of the races on the ballot. I think it's pretty reasonable to say that Hegar has an 80% chance of underperforming Biden and that Biden has a 30% chance of actually winning Texas. If that's true, this is the very definition of a Likely R race. You could make the assertion that if Biden wins Texas, Hegar has a 50-50 chance of also winning, but the first part of that assertion is far from guaranteed.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

First poll that has Cornyn actually at 50%? Definitely Lean Republican. Too bad Beto wasted all the momentum he had from his last run for his failed presidential campaign. Hegar isn't a bad candidate, but Beto was just an awesome candidate. He'd do better than Joe Biden in Texas polls if he ran for senate instead, that I'm sure of.

Well in terms of probability its definitely Likely as its very hard to see any path for Hegar if shes underperforming Biden by 2-3 points , heck even thats True if she underperforms Biden by 1 point its hard.


Basically if Hegar underperforms Biden by 3 points , this race is Safe R

if Hegar underperforms Biden by 2 points, this race is Likely R but closer to Safe than Lean

If Hegar Underperforms Biden by 1 point , this race is still Likely R but closer to Lean than Safe.

Cornyn isn’t over performing Trump at all. They’re both at 50%, if he had actual crossover support he’d be getting a lot higher. When all is said and done most undecideds will go to Hegar. This is a tossup, whatever % Trump gets Cornyn will aswell.

This isnt close to a tossup lol

Saving this for when undecideds break 2-1 for Hegar and Cornyn wins by >3

If Biden wins Texas by a point and Cornyn wins Texas by a point then it would prove my point that Texas Senate Race is Likely R

Final Margin is no the same as probability of winning

No. If Biden is winning TX, there’s a 50-50 chance of Cornyn winning, due to how correlated the races will be. That’s the very definition of a tossup. Are you saying he has a 70-80% chance of winning if Biden carries the state? lol

That doesn't make any sense at all. Probability is only useful when you don't yet know the outcome of any of the races on the ballot. I think it's pretty reasonable to say that Hegar has an 80% chance of underperforming Biden and that Biden has a 30% chance of actually winning Texas. If that's true, this is the very definition of a Likely R race. You could make the assertion that if Biden wins Texas, Hegar has a 50-50 chance of also winning, but the first part of that assertion is far from guaranteed.

The main reason I think it’s a tossup is because TX, on the Presidential level is a tossup with Biden and Trump exchanging leads in polling, and most polling being close within the margin of error. Overall I expect it to be one of the closest races on election night. Given that Ticket-Splitting will be limited, I think it’s pretty reasonable to say that the Senate race is a tossup as well. I firmly believe both the Presidential and Senate races will be within 1-2 points either way. I could see something along the lines of Biden+0.9 and Cornyn+1.1 happening. Although I assume you don’t believe TX-Pres is not a tossup, no?

I think TX-pres is Lean R and TX-sen is Likely R.