MI-Baldwin Wallace: Peters +5
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  MI-Baldwin Wallace: Peters +5
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Author Topic: MI-Baldwin Wallace: Peters +5  (Read 614 times)
VAR
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« on: September 23, 2020, 02:36:12 PM »

Sep 9-22

Peters (D-inc.) 46%
James (R) 41%

https://www.toledoblade.com/local/politics/2020/09/23/six-weeks-from-election-day-new-great-lakes-poll-shows-ohio-tossup/stories/20200923151
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2020, 03:24:11 PM »

Pretty much the same thing we've seen all cycle: Peters is low for an incumbent, and needs to get closer to 50, but James, despite also being well known and maybe even more of a profile since he just ran two years ago, can barely clear 40.
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SN2903
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2020, 03:38:16 PM »

Peters at 42 and 46 in the last two polls. Awful numbers for an incumbent. It seems like James is running about 1-2% ahead of  Trump in MI. This race is def tilt R at this point. Peters is a very weak incumbent. I could see a decent number of Oakland County Biden James voters.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2020, 03:38:22 PM »

1001 likely voters

Unsure 13%
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President Johnson
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« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2020, 03:44:15 PM »

Peters at 42 and 46 in the last two polls. Awful numbers for an incumbent. It seems like James is running about 1-2% ahead of  Trump in MI. This race is def tilt R at this point. Peters is a very weak incumbent. I could see a decent number of Oakland County Biden James voters.

Trump isn't even at 46% in most Rust Belt states and Arizona on average. So you acknowledge he's doomed?
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GALeftist
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« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2020, 04:00:06 PM »

Peters at 42 and 46 in the last two polls. Awful numbers for an incumbent. It seems like James is running about 1-2% ahead of  Trump in MI. This race is def tilt R at this point. Peters is a very weak incumbent. I could see a decent number of Oakland County Biden James voters.

Trump isn't even at 46% in most Rust Belt states and Arizona on average. So you acknowledge he's doomed?

Hell, Trump's barely cracking 46 in Texas.
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2020, 04:09:17 PM »

Peters at 42 and 46 in the last two polls. Awful numbers for an incumbent. It seems like James is running about 1-2% ahead of  Trump in MI. This race is def tilt R at this point. Peters is a very weak incumbent. I could see a decent number of Oakland County Biden James voters.

I think this is tilt/lean D as opposed to tilt R, but I agree with the general sentiment of this post. I agree about Biden James voters in Oakland County. It's easy to find James signs without Trump signs in Grosse Pointe (a fairly wealthy white suburb in Wayne County), whereas I don't see this at all in middle class white suburbs in Macomb County.

James is able to compete with Peters' ads/money, and James is far more telegenic than Peters.  I think these things are crucial to keeping him in the race, though ultimately the national environment will be too much to overcome.
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GALeftist
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2020, 04:37:37 PM »

Anyways, I'm inclined to believe that this is lean D, closer to tilt than likely, although I could see that going whichever way pretty quickly. On the one hand, Peters does not seem like an especially compelling candidate, and he's certainly far less entrenched than Stabenow, who James performed admirably against. On the other hand, Peters has a built in advantage in that he can expect relatively high turnout (I'd wager that there will be a bump of at least 5 points from 2018, and Peters will get the lion's share of those votes). Also, I think people make too big a deal of the "muh closest senate race since 2000" on here. If we go through the senate elections that have even happened in Michigan since 2000, the only ones that weren't in D wave years were 2002 (with Carl Levin seeking his fifth term– 100% entrenched) arguably 2012 (where Stabenow's opponent Pete Hoekstra literally ran an ad with a racist depiction of an Asian woman credited as "yellowgirl") and 2014 (Where Land, Peters's opponent, threw her campaign about as hard as you even can). I get that 2018 was a D wavy year too, but it does sort of make sense that it would be close relative to those elections plus 2006 and 2008.
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Pericles
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2020, 04:46:02 PM »

Peters at 42 and 46 in the last two polls. Awful numbers for an incumbent. It seems like James is running about 1-2% ahead of  Trump in MI. This race is def tilt R at this point. Peters is a very weak incumbent. I could see a decent number of Oakland County Biden James voters.

But then Trump being at 42% in Michigan as an incumbent is awful for him? That suggests he won't come within 1-2 points in MI, so James still loses.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2020, 04:56:16 PM »

This makes Terri Lynn Land's 2014 showing all the more embarrassing. Losing by more than Durbin's opponent and Romney 2012 in a very favorable year to Republicans was pathetic. Hell, Peters won by almost the exact same margin as Cory Booker in 2014.
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WD
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2020, 04:59:42 PM »

This makes Terri Lynn Land's 2014 showing all the more embarrassing. Losing by more than Durbin's opponent and Romney 2012 in a very favorable year to Republicans was pathetic. Hell, Peters won by almost the exact same margin as Cory Booker in 2014.

I’m not too familiar with the 2014 race, but wasn’t she a really bad candidate? IIRC she imploded/collapsed at the end.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2020, 05:01:56 PM »

This makes Terri Lynn Land's 2014 showing all the more embarrassing. Losing by more than Durbin's opponent and Romney 2012 in a very favorable year to Republicans was pathetic. Hell, Peters won by almost the exact same margin as Cory Booker in 2014.

I’m not too familiar with the 2014 race, but wasn’t she a really bad candidate? IIRC she imploded/collapsed at the end.

A few weeks before election day, she snapped under questioning and said, "I can't do this."

She wasn't wrong.
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WD
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2020, 05:07:50 PM »

This makes Terri Lynn Land's 2014 showing all the more embarrassing. Losing by more than Durbin's opponent and Romney 2012 in a very favorable year to Republicans was pathetic. Hell, Peters won by almost the exact same margin as Cory Booker in 2014.

I’m not too familiar with the 2014 race, but wasn’t she a really bad candidate? IIRC she imploded/collapsed at the end.

A few weeks before election day, she snapped under questioning and said, "I can't do this."

She wasn't wrong.

I guess she realized what a mistake she made by challenging the Conqueror of the Great Lakes himself, the man, the myth, the legend, Senator Gary Charles Peters Sr.

She never stood a chance. James shall meet a similar fate. For doom awaits all who are foolish enough to dare oppose Senator Peters: The WWC whisper, the Motorcycle Master, the Suburban Sweeper. He was born to win. Until the day he retires from public service, the Michigan GOP might as well just disband.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2020, 06:30:06 PM »

"MI is like Indiana 2008. It was a fluke!"
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S019
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« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2020, 06:42:09 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2020, 06:45:55 PM by Speaker of the Lincoln Council S019 »

This is honestly making me worried, Peters looks worse off than he did to start the cycle and James is improving and we've seen several polls like this now, this is definitely a warning sign, and Peters could very underperform Biden by 5-6 points, if he doesn't start to become alarmed. I guess it was always wishful thinking to think that he would coast, anyways, moving this back to Lean D, and this might now be part of the GOP's path of least resistance to 50, with Gardner and McSally looking doomed, R's need to win two of this seat, Tillis' seat, and Collins' seat. While James seemed overrated to start the cycle, Peters seems to have become overconfident.
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UncleSam
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« Reply #15 on: September 24, 2020, 06:59:56 PM »

Peters at 42 and 46 in the last two polls. Awful numbers for an incumbent. It seems like James is running about 1-2% ahead of  Trump in MI. This race is def tilt R at this point. Peters is a very weak incumbent. I could see a decent number of Oakland County Biden James voters.

Trump isn't even at 46% in most Rust Belt states and Arizona on average. So you acknowledge he's doomed?
He didn’t say Peters was doomed, he said it was tilt R. And most people think the states you listed are tilt D so I don’t see any hypocrisy.

Doesn’t mean he’s right though. I doubt James does better than a close loss, unless Trump wins MI again. And this is coming from someone who thinks Arizona and WI are toss ups.
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morgieb
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« Reply #16 on: September 24, 2020, 07:10:35 PM »

This is looking problematic. Strange that Peters went from being 2-3 points ahead of Biden to 2-3 points behind (and possibly more). Still think he wins but he needs to wake up.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2020, 07:31:21 PM »

This is looking problematic. Strange that Peters went from being 2-3 points ahead of Biden to 2-3 points behind (and possibly more). Still think he wins but he needs to wake up.

What’s funny is that it’s consistently been this kind of seesaw ever since we started getting polls for this race and Biden vs. Trump in 2019 — Peters being 2-3 points behind Biden for some time, then 2-3 points ahead of Biden, then (and currently) 2-3 (sometimes a little more) points behind Biden, etc.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
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« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2020, 08:37:16 PM »

Joe Biden needs to do a rally with Peters asap
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2020, 11:44:02 PM »

I just have a hard time seeing Peters underperform Biden enough to lose the state.

A 2% victory is still a victory.
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Pericles
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« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2020, 11:58:50 PM »

This is honestly making me worried, Peters looks worse off than he did to start the cycle and James is improving and we've seen several polls like this now, this is definitely a warning sign, and Peters could very underperform Biden by 5-6 points, if he doesn't start to become alarmed. I guess it was always wishful thinking to think that he would coast, anyways, moving this back to Lean D, and this might now be part of the GOP's path of least resistance to 50, with Gardner and McSally looking doomed, R's need to win two of this seat, Tillis' seat, and Collins' seat. While James seemed overrated to start the cycle, Peters seems to have become overconfident.

Lol, not happening. Maybe James outruns Trump by like 2 points, but Biden is probably going to win Michigan by more than 2 points anyway.
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