Qunnipiac: Trump +5 in TX, Biden +1 in OH

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1309198520394625024

Nate's really trying to play pundit here, yet ignoring that other than ABC/Wapo poll for AZ (that also had Biden +2 among RVs!), the polls have still been largely good for him there, in a state *Trump won* in 2016. Suddenly there is such a high bar where even if Biden is outperforming Trump by 4/5 in a state, it's still not good enough or "mediocre"

We literally just had the +9 NYT poll late last week.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Going off pundits & social media, I guess this is the day folks can officially twist the knife and finally say with conviction "Texas is just not ready yet. Plus, Biden doesn't need to win it anyway".

Of course, Ohio is getting the opposite "Biden should absolutely contest it even though he doesn't need to win it" treatment.

Ugh, can't wait until 2024 when we can call Texas an "official" battleground state and focus on that over the same old Rust Belt states again

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Going off pundits & social media, I guess this is the day folks can officially twist the knife and finally say with conviction "Texas is just not ready yet. Plus, Biden doesn't need to win it anyway".

Of course, Ohio is getting the opposite "Biden should absolutely contest it even though he doesn't need to win it" treatment.

Ugh, can't wait until 2024 when we can call Texas an "official" battleground state and focus on that over the same old Rust Belt states again

Nah, the crosstabs were trash. Plus, Quinnipiac had Cruz +9 at this point in 2018. If you apply the same error it's...

Biden +3 in Texas.

[Ljube]

Quinnipiac is a bad pollster.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

(snip)

Nah, the crosstabs were trash. Plus, Quinnipiac had Cruz +9 at this point in 2018. If you apply the same error it's...

Biden +3 in Texas.

I'd love to see a UT-Tyler poll about now. I'm willing to wait until early voting-eve polls before assuming Texas is a lost cause. Especially since Q & NYT seem to be having a hard time polling for demographics friendly to Texas, plus Biden has been campaigning a bit in Ohio and Texas campaigning looks to be coming very soon.

Also, I found it amusing that I saw just as much "Forget about Texas" punditry in my social media as I did news sites running "Polls show Biden is competitive in red states...including TEXAS!!!" takes today

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Trump is not doing better than Cruz here, don’t @ me

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I think the shift from "good Sunbelt/mediocre Midwest polls" to "mediocre Sunbelt/good Midwest polls" is probably mostly driven by the shift from RV to LV voter screens.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think the shift from "good Sunbelt/mediocre Midwest polls" to "mediocre Sunbelt/good Midwest polls" is probably mostly driven by the shift from RV to LV voter screens.

That would actually explain a lot. Pissed off white liberals are abundant in the Midwest and north and that might be skewing the polls for Biden there whereas in the south, a lot of minorities will be filtered out of likely models

[Badger]

I can't believe either of these. No. No.

2020 is not 2012.

However Ohio going Dem would be incredibly based

This poll still isnt 2012 lol ,


Romney won Texas by 16 points while losing Ohio by 2 points (In 2012 it would be almost unimaginable to say Texas would be in single digits too). Also Romney was losing Ohio in polls even when national polls would show him ahead so no this poll is still nothing like 2012

Again, not 2012. Massive demographic changes in Texas during the last eight years alone, plus Trump is absolutely hemorrhaging support in the suburbs, which have long been the real source of Republican strength in Texas.

The 2018 Senate race demonstrates Texas might still be a lien Atlas Blue State, but it is at least now not a republican slam dunk

[WD]

lol @ OH polls

[wbrocks67]

Well, at least their TX poll was accurate lol

[TwinGeeks99]

Well, the Texas poll turned out to be pretty accurate, so credits to them for getting that right.

[Intell]

lmao

Biden winning Hispanics 51/43? This is no way the real result in November is that close.

The partisan weighing is okay but the race weighing is ridiculous

willful ignorance

[Bootes Void]

lmao

Biden winning Hispanics 51/43? This is no way the real result in November is that close.

The partisan weighing is okay but the race weighing is ridiculous

willful ignorance

Could have said the same for most of the polls this election cycle