Qunnipiac: Trump +5 in TX, Biden +1 in OH

[DrScholl]

Ohio is still a battleground and Biden will do much better in the Mahoning Valley than Clinton did. The crosstabs on Texas are odd, so I still think that it will be up for grabs.

[psychprofessor]

Wow, tossup IA and OH

[OSR stands with Israel]

I can't believe either of these. No. No.

2020 is not 2012.

However Ohio going Dem would be incredibly based

This poll still isnt 2012 lol ,


Romney won Texas by 16 points while losing Ohio by 2 points (In 2012 it would be almost unimaginable to say Texas would be in single digits too). Also Romney was losing Ohio in polls even when national polls would show him ahead so no this poll is still nothing like 2012

[Gass3268]

Cruz at this time in 2018 was polling at around 9 points over Beto. Also Biden is planning on going online with ads in early October here. Still time.

[wbrocks67]

RCP 2018 average: Cruz +6.8 > off by 4.2% towards D
583 2018 final forecast: Cruz +4.9-5.3 > off by 2.3-2.7% towards D

538's poll average right now is Trump +2.0 and their forecast is Trump +4.0. If we see the same 2-4% problem again, Biden wins.

I wish Q-pac released their RV # too. I have a feeling the LV model is the problem here.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Why is it when Trump is ahead everyone says “good poll for trump”

Yet when Biden is ahead, red avatars included say stuff like “lmao”

[psychprofessor]

And R's thought Trump was off the air in IA and OH because it was "locked up." A done deal we were told.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Cruz at this time in 2018 was polling at around 9 points over Beto. Also Biden is planning on going online with ads in early October here. Still time.

The difference is Biden is not gonna campaign as hard as Beto did in Texas as Texas is not gonna be the tipping point state while TX-Sen in 2018 was considered a potential tipping point state(along with IN, and MO which is why Democrats put in a lot of resources in that race).

[Pollster]

The Texas sample is 34 R/28 D/38 I.

This is likely too Republican-friendly, as 2018 turnout looked like 38 R/34 D/27 I.

One could "unskew" by plugging the crosstab data into a different turnout model, but that would be mostly futile since the poll's other weights are probably impacting the crosstabs. My best guess is that a R+4 sample with Biden leading independents by high single digits would produce a tie or 1-point lead either way.

[OSR stands with Israel]

RCP 2018 average: Cruz +6.8 > off by 4.2% towards D
583 2018 final forecast: Cruz +4.9-5.3 > off by 2.3-2.7% towards D

538's poll average right now is Trump +2.0 and their forecast is Trump +4.0. If we see the same 2-4% problem again, Biden wins.

I wish Q-pac released their RV # too. I have a feeling the LV model is the problem here.

By this definition, WI is tilt Trump as he is  down 6.6 points in the RCP average vs 6.5 last time and if you apply same polling error than Trump wins WI.


Anyway while RCP overestimated Trump in Texas by 2.7 points in 2016, 538 underestimated him by 0.5 points as 538 had him winning Texas by 8.5 points compared to the 9 he won by.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/texas/

[VAR]

RCP 2018 average: Cruz +6.8 > off by 4.2% towards D
583 2018 final forecast: Cruz +4.9-5.3 > off by 2.3-2.7% towards D

538's poll average right now is Trump +2.0 and their forecast is Trump +4.0. If we see the same 2-4% problem again, Biden wins.

I wish Q-pac released their RV # too. I have a feeling the LV model is the problem here.

By this definition, WI is tilt Trump as he is  down 6.6 points in the RCP average vs 6.5 last time and if you apply same polling error than Trump wins WI.

This, 2016/2018 polling errors ≠ 2020 polling errors

[wbrocks67]

RCP 2018 average: Cruz +6.8 > off by 4.2% towards D
583 2018 final forecast: Cruz +4.9-5.3 > off by 2.3-2.7% towards D

538's poll average right now is Trump +2.0 and their forecast is Trump +4.0. If we see the same 2-4% problem again, Biden wins.

I wish Q-pac released their RV # too. I have a feeling the LV model is the problem here.

By this definition, WI is tilt Trump as he is  down 6.6 points in the RCP average vs 6.5 last time and if you apply same polling error than Trump wins WI.

This, 2016/2018 polling errors ≠ 2020 polling errors

My point is that in general, pollsters tend to underestimate Ds strength in states that heavy latino / minority populations like CA, AZ, TX, etc. Quinnipiac however specifically has this issue as well. We all know Trump is not getting 20% of the black vote and 43% of the latino vote in TX.

[Storr]

lmao

Biden winning Hispanics 51/43? There is no way the real result in November is that close.

[wbrocks67]

The Texas sample is 34 R/28 D/38 I.

This is likely too Republican-friendly, as 2018 turnout looked like 38 R/34 D/27 I.

One could "unskew" by plugging the crosstab data into a different turnout model, but that would be mostly futile since the poll's other weights are probably impacting the crosstabs. My best guess is that a R+4 sample with Biden leading independents by high single digits would produce a tie or 1-point lead either way.

The gold standard has spoken.

This lines up with what Nate Cohn said earlier, about if you apply the strictest "most likely" LV voter screen to his poll that most pollsters do, you would also get about a tie in the TX race.

[Skill and Chance]

RCP 2018 average: Cruz +6.8 > off by 4.2% towards D
583 2018 final forecast: Cruz +4.9-5.3 > off by 2.3-2.7% towards D

538's poll average right now is Trump +2.0 and their forecast is Trump +4.0. If we see the same 2-4% problem again, Biden wins.

I wish Q-pac released their RV # too. I have a feeling the LV model is the problem here.

By this definition, WI is tilt Trump as he is  down 6.6 points in the RCP average vs 6.5 last time and if you apply same polling error than Trump wins WI.

This, 2016/2018 polling errors ≠ 2020 polling errors

This is starting to look different from 2016/18 in a meaningful way.  Latinos are swinging toward Trump while everyone else swings away.  IDK about polling errors though.

[Bootes Void]

lmao

Biden winning Hispanics 51/43? This is no way the real result in November is that close.

The partisan weighing is okay but the race weighing is ridiculous

[wbrocks67]

lmao

Biden winning Hispanics 51/43? This is no way the real result in November is that close.

Not to mention, if Biden is winning Indies by 8 (versus Beto +3 and Trump +14), he's def not down by 5 statewide.

[wbrocks67]

RCP 2018 average: Cruz +6.8 > off by 4.2% towards D
583 2018 final forecast: Cruz +4.9-5.3 > off by 2.3-2.7% towards D

538's poll average right now is Trump +2.0 and their forecast is Trump +4.0. If we see the same 2-4% problem again, Biden wins.

I wish Q-pac released their RV # too. I have a feeling the LV model is the problem here.

By this definition, WI is tilt Trump as he is  down 6.6 points in the RCP average vs 6.5 last time and if you apply same polling error than Trump wins WI.

This, 2016/2018 polling errors ≠ 2020 polling errors

This is starting to look different from 2016/18 in a meaningful way.  Latinos are swinging toward Trump while everyone else swings away.  IDK about polling errors though.

Eh, I think it's just pollsters across the board struggling to poll Latinos, which has been in issue for years now. There is absolutely a possibility of Biden doing a little worse than Clinton among them, but given that they went about the same amount in 2016 and 2018 for Dems, it wouldn't make much sense for a huge change to occur, plus the fact that you have some polls with great #s for Biden among them and others with terrible.

[Skill and Chance]

RCP 2018 average: Cruz +6.8 > off by 4.2% towards D
583 2018 final forecast: Cruz +4.9-5.3 > off by 2.3-2.7% towards D

538's poll average right now is Trump +2.0 and their forecast is Trump +4.0. If we see the same 2-4% problem again, Biden wins.

I wish Q-pac released their RV # too. I have a feeling the LV model is the problem here.

By this definition, WI is tilt Trump as he is  down 6.6 points in the RCP average vs 6.5 last time and if you apply same polling error than Trump wins WI.

This, 2016/2018 polling errors ≠ 2020 polling errors

This is starting to look different from 2016/18 in a meaningful way.  Latinos are swinging toward Trump while everyone else swings away.  IDK about polling errors though.

Eh, I think it's just pollsters across the board struggling to poll Latinos, which has been in issue for years now. There is absolutely a possibility of Biden doing a little worse than Clinton among them, but given that they went about the same amount in 2016 and 2018 for Dems, it wouldn't make much sense for a huge change to occur, plus the fact that you have some polls with great #s for Biden among them and others with terrible.

IDK.  SW state polls traditionally err by undercounting Hispanic voters, but if the shift is caused by Hispanic voters being surprisingly close vs. the recent past, the direction of the polling error could even be reversed.  On the other hand, this would help Biden avoid an EV/PV split if it played out. 

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

The only state where Trump will receive more than 40% of the Hispanic vote is Florida. Those crosstabs are ridiculous. Like I said earlier, Quinnipiac needs to do better.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1309198520394625024

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Not bad overall. Keep in mind Joe Biden doesn't need either, while Trump absolutely has to win both to maintain any chance for victory in the Electoral College.

Feels like Bidens campaigning like he has to win Ohio

[Brittain33]

Trump +5 in Texas may be the result, but this is the state where I have the least confidence in an LV model of any potential battleground. We’ve seen a heavily contested Florida every 4 years since 2000, but we don’t know what a competitive Texas looks like.

[redjohn]

It has to be very concerning for Trump's campaign to see IA and OH shift from lean/likely R (as they've been regarded for most of this cycle) to tossups. Not such great momentum heading towards election day for the President. In 2016, we saw midwestern swing states swing towards Trump in the final month/weeks of the election.

Checking out 538's 2016 forecast, about halfway through October was when Trump's chances started quickly rising across the midwest. That momentum helped him just barely win WI, MI, and PA. If Biden's chances remain the same in IA+OH in a couple weeks, or even rise, Trump won't have a great shot at winning the election.

[Alben Barkley]

I can't believe either of these. No. No.

2020 is not 2012.

However Ohio going Dem would be incredibly based

Between this and the good polls for Biden coming out of Iowa, it’s starting to feel kinda like 2012.

How funny would it be, after all this talk of trends and the sun belt, Biden ends up winning with essentially the 2012 map?