Data For Progress GA/KS/KY/MI: Perdue +2, Tie, McConnell +7, Peters +5, Warnock/Collins lead

[Hope For A New Era]

Friendly reminder that Laura Kelly outperformed her polls. The best poll she ever got was D+2, and she won by 5.

Just saying

Bollier +1 incoming?

[Hope For A New Era]

I think I can accept KS as a tie with high undecideds, and I can accept a result of Peters+5 from MI, but it would be very hard for me to accept them as part of the same universe.

Remains the case that Barbara Bollier has never led in a poll against Roger Marshall, though, even though she's tied more than once. (Interestingly this is also the case for Jaime Harrison against Lindsey Graham. You'd think there'd be a SHOCK POLL out eventually, but actually neither race is seeing all that much polling).

I think Kelly only got as high as +2 in 2018 and she won by 5, so there's that I guess?

An outlier September poll had Kelly+4, but you're right that no poll had her winning by as much as she actually won by. Undecideds broke towards her pretty hard.

This race doesn't have a strong third-party presence, though; the final result won't be 48%-43%.

Orman was overpolled. When he stopped campaigning in September, a lot of his voters went to Kelly.

If he had not been there at all, it could have been Kelly +8 or more.

Kansas is changing! No more Prairie Populism - now it's Prairie Pragmatism.

[Hope For A New Era]

I think I can accept KS as a tie with high undecideds, and I can accept a result of Peters+5 from MI, but it would be very hard for me to accept them as part of the same universe.

Remains the case that Barbara Bollier has never led in a poll against Roger Marshall, though, even though she's tied more than once. (Interestingly this is also the case for Jaime Harrison against Lindsey Graham. You'd think there'd be a SHOCK POLL out eventually, but actually neither race is seeing all that much polling).

I think Kelly only got as high as +2 in 2018 and she won by 5, so there's that I guess?

An outlier September poll had Kelly+4, but you're right that no poll had her winning by as much as she actually won by. Undecideds broke towards her pretty hard.

This race doesn't have a strong third-party presence, though; the final result won't be 48%-43%.

Is it just Bollier/Marshall on the ballot?

Jason Buckley (L) is also on the ballot. Marshall doesn't push even his own party away like Kobach did, so he probably pulls more from Bollier. I guess that could be a benefit if he underperforms polls (5% is likely an overestimate - Kansas isn't a big third-party state, unless you're Greg Orman).