AZ-Reuters/Ipsos: Kelly +9

[VAR]

Sep 11-17, 565 LV, MoE: 5%

Kelly (D) 50%
McSally (R-inc.) 41%

https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN26E39I

[President Johnson]

Poll number 500 that confirms McSally is atrocious candidate and Kelly one of the best recruitments this cycle. Likely Democratic, bordering Safe.

[Alben Barkley]

Now that sounds more reasonable than that ridiculous +1 outlier from ABC/WaPo earlier.

[wbrocks67]

Now that sounds more reasonable than that ridiculous +1 outlier from ABC/WaPo earlier.

Though odd that ABC/Wapo has Kelly outrunning Biden by about 3, while this has Kelly outrunning Biden by.... 8.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Some other candidate 3%
Would not vote 1%
Undecided/prefer not to answer 4%

[SN2903]

Now that sounds more reasonable than that ridiculous +1 outlier from ABC/WaPo earlier.

It's an outlier cause you don't agree with it? The race is tightening. Look at the hispanic numbers in FL. Look at the MI and PA polls. It's obviously closer than the national polls would indicate and Trump may very well win again in the EC. Just cause you don't WANT IT TO BE TRUE doesn't mean it's not close. Biden's decision to not campaign is starting to catch up with him as Trump increases the rallies and appearances. MSNBC and Michael Moore are even sounding the alarm about Michigan right now and Biden's lack of infrastructure and knocking on doors. Phone calls are not nearly as effective as door to door canvassing.

[GALeftist]

Now that sounds more reasonable than that ridiculous +1 outlier from ABC/WaPo earlier.

It's an outlier cause you don't agree with it? The race is tightening. Look at the hispanic numbers in FL. Look at the MI and PA polls. It's obviously closer than the national polls would indicate and Trump may very well win again in the EC. Just cause you don't WANT IT TO BE TRUE doesn't mean it's not close. Biden's decision to not campaign is starting to catch up with him as Trump increases the rallies and appearances. MSNBC and Michael Moore are even sounding the alarm about Michigan right now and Biden's lack of infrastructure and knocking on doors. Phone calls are not nearly as effective as door to door canvassing.

No, it's an outlier because it lies without the range of other recent polls. Also, this thread is for AZ-SEN, not MI (or any of those other states you mentioned).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Now that sounds more reasonable than that ridiculous +1 outlier from ABC/WaPo earlier.

It's an outlier cause you don't agree with it? The race is tightening. Look at the hispanic numbers in FL. Look at the MI and PA polls. It's obviously closer than the national polls would indicate and Trump may very well win again in the EC. Just cause you don't WANT IT TO BE TRUE doesn't mean it's not close. Biden's decision to not campaign is starting to catch up with him as Trump increases the rallies and appearances. MSNBC and Michael Moore are even sounding the alarm about Michigan right now and Biden's lack of infrastructure and knocking on doors. Phone calls are not nearly as effective as door to door canvassing.

Might be one for the oremine.  

[Alben Barkley]

Now that sounds more reasonable than that ridiculous +1 outlier from ABC/WaPo earlier.

It's an outlier cause you don't agree with it? The race is tightening. Look at the hispanic numbers in FL. Look at the MI and PA polls. It's obviously closer than the national polls would indicate and Trump may very well win again in the EC. Just cause you don't WANT IT TO BE TRUE doesn't mean it's not close. Biden's decision to not campaign is starting to catch up with him as Trump increases the rallies and appearances. MSNBC and Michael Moore are even sounding the alarm about Michigan right now and Biden's lack of infrastructure and knocking on doors. Phone calls are not nearly as effective as door to door canvassing.

It's an outlier because by definition, an outlier is a number that's far outside the average range compared to other numbers. In the vast majority of polls, including other polls taken around the same time like this one, Kelly is leading by high single to low double digits. I would also say it's an outlier if he was up by 20 or 30 points, so no, it has nothing to do with what I want to be true and everything to do with what the mathematical definition of what an "outlier" is.

It's also beyond hysterical to have you of all people telling me that things aren't true just because you don't want them to be true. The irony is too hilarious for words.

Also Michigan, Michael Moore, MSNBC, and Biden's campaign tactics (we're talking about Kelly here) have absolutely nothing to do with this. But I watch MSNBC all the time and have not seen anyone "sounding the alarm" about Michigan. And I do not care what Michael Moore says, as he is a professional alarmist/contrarian who has been wrong in every prediction he has made but one over the past 20 years.

Most Republicans in general, but you in particular, really could stand to go back to school to learn basic logic 101. The way you go off on these hysterical tangents that are far removed from reality or the subject at hand is frankly embarrassing as all hell. Like, I am physically cringing and actually feeling bad for you reading this nonsense.

[SN2903]

Now that sounds more reasonable than that ridiculous +1 outlier from ABC/WaPo earlier.

It's an outlier cause you don't agree with it? The race is tightening. Look at the hispanic numbers in FL. Look at the MI and PA polls. It's obviously closer than the national polls would indicate and Trump may very well win again in the EC. Just cause you don't WANT IT TO BE TRUE doesn't mean it's not close. Biden's decision to not campaign is starting to catch up with him as Trump increases the rallies and appearances. MSNBC and Michael Moore are even sounding the alarm about Michigan right now and Biden's lack of infrastructure and knocking on doors. Phone calls are not nearly as effective as door to door canvassing.

It's an outlier because by definition, an outlier is a number that's far outside the average range compared to other numbers. In the vast majority of polls, including other polls taken around the same time like this one, Kelly is leading by high single to low double digits. I would also say it's an outlier if he was up by 20 or 30 points, so no, it has nothing to do with what I want to be true and everything to do with what the mathematical definition of what an "outlier" is.

It's also beyond hysterical to have you of all people telling me that things aren't true just because you don't want them to be true. The irony is too hilarious for words.

Also Michigan, Michael Moore, MSNBC, and Biden's campaign tactics (we're talking about Kelly here) have absolutely nothing to do with this. But I watch MSNBC all the time and have not seen anyone "sounding the alarm" about Michigan. And I do not care what Michael Moore says, as he is a professional alarmist/contrarian who has been wrong in every prediction he has made but one over the past 20 years.

Most Republicans in general, but you in particular, really could stand to go back to school to learn basic logic 101. The way you go off on these hysterical tangents that are far removed from reality or the subject at hand is frankly embarrassing as all hell. Like, I am physically cringing and actually feeling bad for you reading this nonsense.

Believe what you want to believe but the race is close. Moore got 2016 right which shows he understands the Trump movement and what is going on. 2018 Trump was no on the ballot and the party in power usually does poor in midterms, Moore is right that the energy is on the left of the party. I may not like it but it's true. Biden simply doesn't rally the base or inspire anyone and this lack of energy is starting to catch up to him a I said Trump is increasing the # of rallies. Trump couldn't really campaign much cause of COVID till recently.

[Brittain33]

Now that sounds more reasonable than that ridiculous +1 outlier from ABC/WaPo earlier.

It's an outlier cause you don't agree with it?

It’s an outlier because it’s literally so far from the average of other polls that it had McSally doing better against Kelly than her own internal poll did.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Believe what you want to believe but the race is close. Moore got 2016 right which shows he understands the Trump movement and what is going on. 2018 Trump was no on the ballot and the party in power usually does poor in midterms, Moore is right that the energy is on the left of the party. I may not like it but it's true. Biden simply doesn't rally the base or inspire anyone and this lack of energy is starting to catch up to him a I said Trump is increasing the # of rallies. Trump couldn't really campaign much cause of COVID till recently.

*Sure Jan gif*

Methinks the deplorables aren't taking it too well that a state that gave us gems like Barry Goldwater and Joe Arpaio will soon have two Democratic U.S. Senators, one of whom is an irreligious bisexual woman. Sad!

But yes, by all means, please GOP keep pumping money into this lost cause for Moscow Martha. McSally in Arizona is to the NRSC as Amy McGrath in Kentucky is to the DSCC. #TriageTime