D4P/Indivisible (D): GA, KS, KY, MI

[Skye]

GA
Trump 46
Biden 46

4-way:
Trump 45
Biden 45
Jorgensen 1

KS
Trump 49
Biden 45

4-way
Trump 48
Biden 42
Jorgensen 3
Hawkins 1

KY
Trump 56
Biden 38

4-way
Trump 55
Biden 35
Jorgensen 1
Hawkins 1

MI
Biden 50
Trump 44

4-way
Biden 48
Trump 42
Jorgensen 1

https://www.dataforprogress.org/2020-senate-project

[Benjamin Frank]

If these polls are accurate, any rational explanations?

Big shifts in Kansas and Missouri from 2016, but not much movement in Georgia.  I can get that Kansas might have a lot of never Trump Republicans, but Missouri shifting much more than Georgia doesn't make much sense to me.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bollier is tied and McGrath is down only 7, that is good news

[Skill and Chance]

If these polls are accurate, any rational explanations?

Big shifts in Kansas and Missouri from 2016, but not much movement in Georgia.  I can get that Kansas might have a lot of never Trump Republicans, but Missouri shifting much more than Georgia doesn't make much sense to me.

Non-Southern white vote improving big time for Biden while Southern white vote basically stable?

[Benjamin Frank]

If these polls are accurate, any rational explanations?

Big shifts in Kansas and Missouri from 2016, but not much movement in Georgia.  I can get that Kansas might have a lot of never Trump Republicans, but Missouri shifting much more than Georgia doesn't make much sense to me.

Non-Southern white vote improving big time for Biden while Southern white vote basically stable?

Possible, but Georgia is a heavily suburban state.  Suburbs in the South (and the Southern midwest) have remained more Republican than elsewhere, but then Missouri is in the Southern midwest.

[ltomlinson31]

If these polls are accurate, any rational explanations?

Big shifts in Kansas and Missouri from 2016, but not much movement in Georgia.  I can get that Kansas might have a lot of never Trump Republicans, but Missouri shifting much more than Georgia doesn't make much sense to me.

This is a Michigan poll, not Missouri.

[Adam Griffin]

If these polls are accurate, any rational explanations?

Big shifts in Kansas and Missouri from 2016, but not much movement in Georgia.  I can get that Kansas might have a lot of never Trump Republicans, but Missouri shifting much more than Georgia doesn't make much sense to me.

My long-standing explanation for GA is this: 2018 was essentially a presidential election in Georgia. GA had the second-highest raw turnout in 2018 as a share of its 2016 electorate of any state in the country (96% of '16), with only Montana beating it. And MT is still growing quite rapidly in proportional terms population-wise.

Just like Obama's '08 performance accelerated demography in GA and it took another 8 years for another D candidate to reach his margin performance, Abrams' performance should be viewed as a high watermark rather than a baseline. Given Trump and this cycle, however, Biden's performance isn't likely to be all that removed from Abrams (given Trump generates very high disdain for an incumbent President). I don't expect Biden to win or lose GA by more than 1.5 points.

GA also implemented AVR following the 2016 election, which means that roughly 95% of eligible voters are now registered (compared to around 80% in 2016).  

[Benjamin Frank]

If these polls are accurate, any rational explanations?

Big shifts in Kansas and Missouri from 2016, but not much movement in Georgia.  I can get that Kansas might have a lot of never Trump Republicans, but Missouri shifting much more than Georgia doesn't make much sense to me.

This is a Michigan poll, not Missouri.

Thanks for the correction.

Nuts, I misread it as Missouri, Trump 48% Biden 42% (I thought MI was Missouri and I just looked at the 48-42 and I assumed Trump was ahead.)

However, the Survey Monkey poll out today has Trump and Biden tied at 48% in Missouri (MO.)

[wbrocks67]

If these polls are accurate, any rational explanations?

Big shifts in Kansas and Missouri from 2016, but not much movement in Georgia.  I can get that Kansas might have a lot of never Trump Republicans, but Missouri shifting much more than Georgia doesn't make much sense to me.

For a state like Georgia, 5pt movement from 2016 would be pretty big.

[tagimaucia]

If these polls are accurate, any rational explanations?

Big shifts in Kansas and Missouri from 2016, but not much movement in Georgia.  I can get that Kansas might have a lot of never Trump Republicans, but Missouri shifting much more than Georgia doesn't make much sense to me.

My long-standing explanation for GA is this: 2018 was essentially a presidential election in Georgia.

Yes.  The demographics of the 2018 election in Georgia, whether by race, education, urban/rural, etc. were basically that of presidential electorate, with the only sorta meaningful difference being age.  GA youth turnout was a lot better than a typical midterm but still well below presidential years.  To the point where if you had that level of young turnout in 2018, Abrams-Kemp would have essentially been a tie.  Which is why "Georgia is a complete down-the-middle tossup" has been my prior for 2020 for the past two years.

[Stuart98]

Very skeptical, those are I believe Biden's best Kansas numbers all cycle. Others seem roughly in line with expectations though so, maybe?

[wbrocks67]

Very skeptical, those are I believe Biden's best Kansas numbers all cycle. Others seem roughly in line with expectations though so, maybe?

SurveyUSA had him down 7, so pretty close

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

My Dream of a non atlas blue Kansas may actually come true!

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Georgia President by Data 4 Progress on 2020-09-19

Summary: D: 46%, R: 46%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Kansas President by Data 4 Progress on 2020-09-19

Summary: D: 45%, R: 49%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Kentucky President by Data 4 Progress on 2020-9-19

Summary: D: 38%, R: 56%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Michigan President by Data 4 Progress on 2020-09-19

Summary: D: 50%, R: 44%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details