IA-Monmouth: Trump +6(RV), +3(LV)

[Skye]

RV
Trump 50
Biden 44

LV
Trump 49
Biden 46

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/documents/monmoutpoll_ia_092420.pdf/

[Buzz]

Much more likely than what the other pollsters have been showing. 

[Red Wall]

RBG death ensured a GOP wave. I'd say 40% chance they even take the house. In Iowa they'll flip two of the dem held seats.

[Brittain33]

RBG death ensured a GOP wave. I'd say 40% chance they even take the house. In Iowa they'll flip two of the dem held seats.

What are the 17+ seats you see flipping because of RBG dying?

[redjohn]

Didn't expect IA to be a tossup this late in the race. Anyways, IA is a tossup. We have Biden leading in one high-quality poll, a tied race in another, and Trump leading in another. Anyone's race here. Massive swings among white voters in the midwest (IA and MN seem to be undergoing the most dramatic swings in the region) have turned a Trump+9 state into a complete tossup and a Clinton+1 state into a Biden blowout.

[woodley park]

Tilt R.

[GeorgiaModerate]

RBG death ensured a GOP wave. I'd say 40% chance they even take the house. In Iowa they'll flip two of the dem held seats.

I'll take Siena's data over your feelings:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1309139839095275521

[wbrocks67]

We have 3 A+ pollsters: Biden +3, tie, and Trump +3, so essentially a straight tossup.

This is a weird poll b/c it has Biden doing *better* in the LV screen than the RV screen, which hasn't been the case for any of their polls up to this point (shift in the race?) while Greenfield and the GCB both improved a couple points from last time, yet Biden was either worse (RV) or a pt off (LV).

[Tender Branson]

Seems to be in line with the SurveyMonkey poll.

[wbrocks67]

Seems to be in line with the SurveyMonkey poll.

Not great for Monmouth then lol

[Gass3268]

Pure Toss Up

[indietraveler]

All these recent Iowa polls confirm a few things:

-At the presidential level it's a tossup. At this point, you can then conclude:

-WI is looking pretty safe for Biden when supplemented with their own state polling

-Ernst should be worried and the democratic party made the right choice to invest in this race from the get go. The fact that it's the end of September and Greenfield is still in this says a lot about the environment overall and how weak Ernst is as a candidate.

[solidcoalition]

I have a hunch this state is not really that close. It has an extremely high amount of white high school graduates voting.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I still feel like of the four Democratic "reach" states (GA, IA, OH, TX), Iowa is the one Biden is least likely to win in the end.

[MT Treasurer]

IA relative to the entire nation in 2016: R+12
IA relative to the entire nation in 2020: R+11-14

Wow, 2016 was really a fluke after all. 2012 map incoming, folks.

[republican1993]

RBG death ensured a GOP wave. I'd say 40% chance they even take the house. In Iowa they'll flip two of the dem held seats.

I'll take Siena's data over your feelings:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1309139839095275521

nobody even breaks 45% in the iowa poll from NY times it should be thrown out and so many undecideds.

[bandg]

Some brutal numbers under the hood for Biden here.

Has Donald Trump done a good job or bad job handling the coronavirus outbreak?
--> 51-47% Very or somewhat good

How confident are you that Donald Trump can put the country on the road to recovery from the pandemic?
--> 53-47% Very or somewhat confident

How confident are you that Joe Biden can put the country on the road to recovery from the pandemic?
--> 41-57% Very or somewhat confident

This is the issue that Biden has centered his entire campaign around, and he's getting close to losing on it. And its not just this poll, other polls I've seen have started to move in this direction.

[redjohn]

Some brutal numbers under the hood for Biden here.

Has Donald Trump done a good job or bad job handling the coronavirus outbreak?
--> 51-47% Very or somewhat good

How confident are you that Donald Trump can put the country on the road to recovery from the pandemic?
--> 53-47% Very or somewhat confident

How confident are you that Joe Biden can put the country on the road to recovery from the pandemic?
--> 41-57% Very or somewhat confident

This is the issue that Biden has centered his entire campaign around, and he's getting close to losing on it. And its not just this poll, other polls I've seen have started to move in this direction.

I don't think a 6-point swing in Biden's direction in a state that should not be competitive for Trump is brutal for Biden... R+3 in IA spells bad, bad news for Trump just across state lines in WI+MN. He doesn't really have a shot at winning those states if IA's this close.

[bandg]

Some brutal numbers under the hood for Biden here.

Has Donald Trump done a good job or bad job handling the coronavirus outbreak?
--> 51-47% Very or somewhat good

How confident are you that Donald Trump can put the country on the road to recovery from the pandemic?
--> 53-47% Very or somewhat confident

How confident are you that Joe Biden can put the country on the road to recovery from the pandemic?
--> 41-57% Very or somewhat confident

This is the issue that Biden has centered his entire campaign around, and he's getting close to losing on it. And its not just this poll, other polls I've seen have started to move in this direction.

I don't think a 6-point swing in Biden's direction in a state that should not be competitive for Trump is brutal for Biden... R+3 in IA spells bad, bad news for Trump just across state lines in WI+MN. He doesn't really have a shot at winning those states if IA's this close.

Yeah, the topline is fine for Biden (I'm skeptical about a 3 pt RV->LV shift, but whatever).

[It’s so Joever]

IA relative to the entire nation in 2016: R+12
IA relative to the entire nation in 2020: R+11-14

Wow, 2016 was really a fluke after all. 2012 map incoming, folks.

B-b-but muh corn farmers and trade wars and elasticity and white voters coming for Biden and Covid bump.

[Ljube]

Their voter turnout model doesn't seem right.
It's hard to believe that there are more Trump voters among registered voters than among likely voters.

The fact that they published results for registered voters, high turnout likely voters and low turnout likely voters shows that they have no idea what the electorate will look like. This probably applies to all other pollsters and could again result in a significant discrepancy between the polls and the actual vote.

[Pericles]

Their voter turnout model doesn't seem right.
It's hard to believe that there are more Trump voters among registered voters than among likely voters.

The fact that they published results for registered voters, high turnout likely voters and low turnout likely voters shows that they have no idea what the electorate will look like. This probably applies to all other pollsters and could again result in a significant discrepancy between the polls and the actual vote.

That makes sense with non college-educated whites, which aren't a particularly high turnout demographic. In heavily white states, lower turnout means the electorate is more educated, and it doesn't make it much more white because that's pretty hard to do. A more educated electorate is good for Democrats.

[Ljube]

Their voter turnout model doesn't seem right.
It's hard to believe that there are more Trump voters among registered voters than among likely voters.

The fact that they published results for registered voters, high turnout likely voters and low turnout likely voters shows that they have no idea what the electorate will look like. This probably applies to all other pollsters and could again result in a significant discrepancy between the polls and the actual vote.

That makes sense with non college-educated whites, which aren't a particularly high turnout demographic. In heavily white states, lower turnout means the electorate is more educated, and it doesn't make it much more white because that's pretty hard to do. A more educated electorate is good for Democrats.

Both turnout models (high turnout and low turnout) give exactly the same results, lower than Trump's numbers with registered voters. Something is wrong with their turnout models.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Iowa President by Monmouth University on 2020-09-22

Summary: D: 44%, R: 50%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details