UW-Madison: Biden +6 in MI, +4 in PA & WI

[VAR]

MI
Biden 51%
Trump 45%

RV: Biden 50-42

PA
Biden 49%
Trump 45%

RV: Biden 49-44

WI
Biden 50%
Trump 46%

RV: Biden 49-44

Evers approval: 48/48 (=)

https://madison.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/new-poll-finds-big-gulf-on-top-issues-between-biden-trump-voters-in-battleground-states/article_e6b561d5-c142-535e-8354-139805638fb6.html

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Looks like good numbers for Biden. Which means this won't get half the discussion the ABC/WaPo polls got.

[Tender Branson]

Biden is not doing much better than Hillary in the swing states right now.

Pretty much the same thing.

Too close for my taste.

But it’s probably better that way ... if the polls are close, more Dems should vote.

Large margins only keep them home.

[wbrocks67]

I'm continually puzzled as to why pollsters LV models are assuming they help Republicans, as if they are more likely to come out than Democrats. Just saying from concrete evidence the past 4 years, that just... doesn't seem likely.

However, it's interesting that for once all 3 of these states are close to each other

[wbrocks67]

Biden is not doing much better than Hillary in the swing states right now.

Pretty much the same thing.

Too close for my taste.

But it’s probably better that way ... if the polls are close, more Dems should vote.

Large margins only keep them home.

This completely ignores everything that happened in 2016, but okay.

Not only are polls weighted differently now than in 2016, but Hillary would be getting like 44-39 margins in these states, not 50-45. Completely different.

[bilaps]

Third poll of MI now showing a 5 or 6 pt race

[wbrocks67]

Third poll of MI now showing a 5 or 6 pt race

The last 4 polls of MI, including this one is +5, +8, +8, +8

[Podgy the Bear]

After everything that's happened so far in 2020, we're back to where we started: the Rust Belt trifecta remains lean Democratic.

[bilaps]

Third poll of MI now showing a 5 or 6 pt race

The last 4 polls of MI, including this one is +5, +8, +8, +8

No. This one is 6, yougov is 6, then you have 8,8,5,5.

[redjohn]

WI and MI are going to snap back to their true colors this cycle. The writing's been on the wall since 2018, when Dems swept both states. Senator Baldwin received nearly 100k more votes than Clinton in WI in a midterm race, and despite being an relatively boring Senator, Stabenow nearly reached Clinton's vote total in a competitive off-year race. It's more likely Biden wins WI & MI by upper single-digits than Trump winning in either.

[wbrocks67]

WI and MI are going to snap back to their true colors this cycle. The writing's been on the wall since 2018, when Dems swept both states. Senator Baldwin received nearly 100k more votes than Clinton in WI in a midterm race, and despite being an relatively boring Senator, Stabenow nearly reached Clinton's vote total in a competitive off-year race. It's more likely Biden wins WI & MI by upper single-digits than Trump winning in either.

This is why I don't see PA as *that* close. I don't think Biden is winning by Wolf/Casey levels, and granted Barletta/Wagner weren't amazing candidates, but I don't foresee PA going Trump win > Casey/Wolf win by 13-17 pts > another Trump win

[redjohn]

WI and MI are going to snap back to their true colors this cycle. The writing's been on the wall since 2018, when Dems swept both states. Senator Baldwin received nearly 100k more votes than Clinton in WI in a midterm race, and despite being an relatively boring Senator, Stabenow nearly reached Clinton's vote total in a competitive off-year race. It's more likely Biden wins WI & MI by upper single-digits than Trump winning in either.

This is why I don't see PA as *that* close. I don't think Biden is winning by Wolf/Casey levels, and granted Barletta/Wagner weren't amazing candidates, but I don't foresee PA going Trump win > Casey/Wolf win by 13-17 pts > another Trump win

Yeah, you're most likely right. Trump's 2016 vote surge in PA is just concerning, as the race there is different from MI+WI (where the problem wasn't that Trump was very popular, just that Clinton wasn't)

[wbrocks67]

WI and MI are going to snap back to their true colors this cycle. The writing's been on the wall since 2018, when Dems swept both states. Senator Baldwin received nearly 100k more votes than Clinton in WI in a midterm race, and despite being an relatively boring Senator, Stabenow nearly reached Clinton's vote total in a competitive off-year race. It's more likely Biden wins WI & MI by upper single-digits than Trump winning in either.

This is why I don't see PA as *that* close. I don't think Biden is winning by Wolf/Casey levels, and granted Barletta/Wagner weren't amazing candidates, but I don't foresee PA going Trump win > Casey/Wolf win by 13-17 pts > another Trump win

Yeah, you're most likely right. Trump's 2016 vote surge in PA is just concerning, as the race there is different from MI+WI (where the problem wasn't that Trump was very popular, just that Clinton wasn't)

The thing with 2016 in PA is interesting, b/c it had a rural surge, but also Clinton matched Obama levels in the city. Let's assume both those things happen again, Trump gets his 2016 rural #s, and Biden at least matches Obama/Clinton levels in Philadelphia. That leaves us with the Philly suburbs, which went badly for Trump but not apocalyptically, and then areas like Erie/Lackawanna that Clinton won but swung heavily to Trump. This year, however, I just don't foresee 2016 levels in either of those places. I would think Biden would snap back a good chunk in Erie/Lackawanna, and Trump will really struggle way more in the suburbs.

[Alben Barkley]

Biden is not doing much better than Hillary in the swing states right now.

Pretty much the same thing.

Too close for my taste.

But it’s probably better that way ... if the polls are close, more Dems should vote.

Large margins only keep them home.

Hillary was not close to 50 like this.

[OSR stands with Israel]

WI and MI are going to snap back to their true colors this cycle. The writing's been on the wall since 2018, when Dems swept both states. Senator Baldwin received nearly 100k more votes than Clinton in WI in a midterm race, and despite being an relatively boring Senator, Stabenow nearly reached Clinton's vote total in a competitive off-year race. It's more likely Biden wins WI & MI by upper single-digits than Trump winning in either.

Obama's margins in WI and MI were overinflated, the Kerry numbers are more like where the baseline is imo

[VAR]

Gov approvals:

Whitmer 54/44 (+10)
Wolf 49/47 (+2)
Evers 48/48 (=)

[wbrocks67]

Gov approvals:

Whitmer 54/44 (+10)
Wolf 49/47 (+2)
Evers 48/48 (=)

Hmm... Wolf is pretty low here to most other PA polls. Evers lower too. Whitmer's been in the high 50s low 60s in many polls too, but it's YouGov so meh.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Wisconsin President by University of Wisconsin on 2020-09-21

Summary: D: 50%, R: 46%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Michigan President by University of Wisconsin on 2020-09-21

Summary: D: 50%, R: 42%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by University of Wisconsin on 2020-09-21

Summary: D: 49%, R: 45%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[philly09]

Biden is winning Jill Stein/Gary Johnson voters as well as voters that stayed home in 2016.

https://twitter.com/bcburden/status/1309510628252561408

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs need to forget about D's winniang AZ and Trump winning PA, that ship has sailed

[Pericles]

Is there any evidence anyway that complacency led to lower Democratic turnout in 2016? It seems possible, and is assumed to have definitely happened, but this might be overrated as a factor.

[Hammy]

Is there any evidence anyway that complacency led to lower Democratic turnout in 2016? It seems possible, and is assumed to have definitely happened, but this might be overrated as a factor.

I haven't seen any but polls were closer in 2016 as well, for what that's worth on the matter. Clinton's unpopularity was the largest individual factor

[Niemeyerite]

51, 49, 50. I'll take it.