NYT/Siena-GA/IA/TX: Tied, Biden +3, Trump +3

[lfromnj]

Texas:
Austin/San Antonio/South: Biden 50-38 (+12)
Dallas-Fort Worth: Biden 47-34 (+13)
Houston: Biden 51-36 (+15)
Minor: Trump 58-34 (+24)
Rural: Trump 71-25 (+46)

So the only reason Trump leads in Texas is because there are many more undecideds in the big Metros.

Did Clinton win those metros by a lot in 2016? If they were close, it could be alienated suburban Republicans that will eventually 'come home' to Trump, though it seems unlikely.

The 4 county metro in Dallas was tied but if you add a few more counties it was like Trump +5

[redjohn]

The notes on Texas's LV model potentially being off (underestimating Biden support) seems ominous for Trump, given that TX is guaranteed to have a different voter pool this cycle. Trump can hang on there, but he's going to somehow have to stem the tide of suburban voters turning out for Biden. Not sure how he plans on doing that.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Weird that Iowa is swinging so much relative to the other two, good for the Senate race I guess. Another good sign for the Senate is that Cornyn is only outrunning Trump by 2 points.

The Gender Gap in Iowa is insanely high , a poll which showed it tied has Trump winning men by 21 points and Biden winning women by 20 points

[wbrocks67]

Yep, Nate said that in the LV screen of most likely to vote, Biden/Trump are tied:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1309073436082348034

[woodley park]

Wasserman shrewdly observed a couple of weeks ago that if Biden was doing well in Minnesota and Wisconsin, it would make sense that he's doing better in Iowa too. Biden + 3 in Iowa appears a little too generous, but it would make sense that the state is a pure toss-up. Following Wasserman's logic, if Biden is favored in Minnesota and Wisconsin, while Iowa is a toss-up, what does that say about Ohio?

[redjohn]

If you compare Trump's 2016 vote shares to cross-tabs:

IA

Voters 18-29: Trump -8
Voters 30-44: Trump -9
Voters 45-64: Trump -7
Voters 65+: Trump -12

Men: Trump -12
Women: Trump -8

GA

Voters 18-29: Trump +1
Voters 30-44: Trump +3
Voters 45-64: Trump -14
Voters 65+: Trump +1

Men: Trump -9
Women: Trump -4

TX

Voters 18-29: Trump -21
Voters 30-44: Trump -5
Voters 45-64: Trump -8
Voters 65+: Trump -3

Men: Trump -5
Women: Trump -6

[Pollster]

Looks like they didn't push undecideds, so we're likely looking at the baseline amount of support for each candidate, especially in the Senate races.

Really highlights the severity of the problems for Trump and Ernst in Iowa, Perdue in Georgia, and Cornyn in Texas.

[tagimaucia]

Looks like they didn't push undecideds, so we're likely looking at the baseline amount of support for each candidate, especially in the Senate races.

Really highlights the severity of the problems for Trump and Ernst in Iowa, Perdue in Georgia, and Cornyn in Texas.

Do you think Hegar's chances are being underrated by a lot?  I can't help but notice that for how different the margins currently look, Cornyn's actual vote share in polls is 3 less than Trump on average on RCP which is *exactly* the same as Ernst's (to name one example) deficit compared to Trump in Iowa.  

[Landslide Lyndon]

Looks like they didn't push undecideds, so we're likely looking at the baseline amount of support for each candidate, especially in the Senate races.

Really highlights the severity of the problems for Trump and Ernst in Iowa, Perdue in Georgia, and Cornyn in Texas.

Do you think Hegar's chances are being underrated by a lot?  I can't help but notice that for how different the margins currently look, Cornyn's actual vote share in polls is 3 less than Trump on average on RCP which is *exactly* the same as Ernst's (to name one example) deficit compared to Trump in Iowa.  

If Hegar had Beto-like money then this would be a top-tier race. She has fundraised respectably but Texas is a money pit.

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting.  GA/NC/IA/OH looking a bit more appetizing for Biden than in the summer, FL/TX/AZ a bit less so.

[pbrower2a]

Hillary 2016 + MI + PA +IA = 274.

[forza nocta]

too many undecides nate

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hillary 2016 + MI + PA +IA = 274.

There is no universe in which Biden wins Iowa but loses Wisconsin.

[Person Man]

Trump claiming victory in Ohio and Iowa was dumb.

[psychprofessor]

Tossup IA

[solidcoalition]

Looks like Politician was right after all  

GA
Trump approval: 49/47 (+2)
Favorabilities:
Trump 48/50 (-2)
Biden 47/50 (-3)
Ossoff 39/34 (+5)
Perdue 47/34 (+13)
Harris 46/40 (+6)
Pence 51/41 (+10)
BLM 52/43 (+9)

IA
Trump approval: 48/48 (=)
Favorabilities:
Trump 47/51 (-4)
Biden 47/48 (-1)
Greenfield 45/38 (+7)
Ernst 45/45 (=)
Harris 44/42 (+2)
Pence 44/45 (-1)
BLM 49/42 (+7)

TX
Trump approval: 51/45 (+6)
Favorabilities:
Trump 50/48 (+2)
Biden 50/47 (+3)
Hegar 33/15 (+18)
Cornyn 45/28 (+17)
Harris 42/46 (-4)
Pence 48/42 (+6)
BLM 49/44 (+5)

Hispanics: Biden 57-32

Those are pretty high Trump approvals for a NYT poll.

[MT Treasurer]

IA won’t be more Democratic than GA and TX, and Trump’s certainly not holding either GA or TX if he’s trailing by 3 in IA. We’ve seen this movie before.

[wbrocks67]

Trump claiming victory in Ohio and Iowa was dumb.

I think his campaign can't afford it

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Wasserman shrewdly observed a couple of weeks ago that if Biden was doing well in Minnesota and Wisconsin, it would make sense that he's doing better in Iowa too. Biden + 3 in Iowa appears a little too generous, but it would make sense that the state is a pure toss-up. Following Wasserman's logic, if Biden is favored in Minnesota and Wisconsin, while Iowa is a toss-up, what does that say about Ohio?

Ohio would be Lean R in that scenario. It's not as set in stone for Trump as many believe but I don't think it ultimately flips.

[Alben Barkley]

Trump claiming victory in Ohio and Iowa was dumb.

It’s not so much about claiming victory as it is the fact that if they lose those states, they’ve already lost. So they had to prioritize elsewhere, especially with limited funds.

[Alben Barkley]

Yep, Nate said that in the LV screen of most likely to vote, Biden/Trump are tied:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1309073436082348034

WTF screen did they use then to end up with Trump +3?

[philly09]

This was announced on Friday, but ICYMI.

https://twitter.com/thematthill/status/1309236130391429121