PA-Franklin & Marshall: Biden +6
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 19, 2024, 06:19:42 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  PA-Franklin & Marshall: Biden +6		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: PA-Franklin & Marshall: Biden +6  (Read 1421 times)
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,520
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 23, 2020, 07:55:11 PM »
« edited: September 23, 2020, 08:07:31 PM by Gass3268 »
LV (First Poll):

Biden 48%
Trump 42%

RV (August 26):

Biden 49% (+1)
Trump 40% (-2)

Source
Logged
Splash
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,039
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2020, 07:56:03 PM »
I'll take it.
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,708
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2020, 07:56:09 PM »
Logged
Bootes Void
iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,682
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2020, 07:59:49 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2020, 08:17:32 PM by Ontario Nature Enthusiast »
 a bit of breather
Logged
psychprofessor
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,293


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2020, 08:05:15 PM »
before the coney barrett bump
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,776


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2020, 08:07:28 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2020, 08:10:41 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
September 14-20
Among 480 likely voters
MoE for likely voters: 7.8% (!)

Biden 48%
Trump 42%

Among 625 registered voters
MoE for registered voters: 6.5%
Changes with August 17-24 poll

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 40% (-2)

I don't know why the poll director insists the race has tightened given trends amongst registered voters. They didn't poll likely voters before, so if the margin looks tighter, it's probably because it was always going to be tighter among likely voters to begin with.
Logged
Eraserhead
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,460
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2020, 08:23:04 PM »
Good poll for Biden. Margin of error and sample size are a bit questionable.
Logged
ProudModerate2
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 20,449
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2020, 08:29:03 PM »
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,948


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2020, 08:30:04 PM »
The gold standard has spoken
Logged
Rand
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,127
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2020, 08:30:52 PM »
Logged
Splash
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,039
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2020, 08:32:21 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on September 23, 2020, 08:23:04 PM
Good poll for Biden. Margin of error and sample size are a bit questionable.

I guess they subscribe to the Monmouth school of polling.
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,689
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2020, 09:10:16 PM »
Logged
republican1993
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 388
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2020, 09:17:18 PM »
their poll in 2016 this time had clinton + 12 48-36 "highly accurate" LOL & their final 2016 poll was + 11 clinton 49-38  Angry
Logged
republican1993
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 388
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2020, 09:18:00 PM »

gold standard with their + 11 clinton lead
Logged
Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,207


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.54

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2020, 09:22:24 PM »
Quote from: republican1993 on September 23, 2020, 09:17:18 PM
their poll in 2016 this time had clinton + 12 48-36 "highly accurate" LOL & their final 2016 poll was + 11 clinton 49-38  Angry

I agree. This poll is terrible! It's not polling the Pennsylvania Amash vote
Logged
republican1993
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 388
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2020, 09:23:12 PM »
hahaha it's just not reliable from my experience and past results unless they fixed their weighting.
Logged
Gracile
gracile
Moderators
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,058


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2020, 09:27:14 PM »
Quote from: Unpolled Amash Voter for Trump on September 23, 2020, 09:22:24 PM
Quote from: republican1993 on September 23, 2020, 09:17:18 PM
their poll in 2016 this time had clinton + 12 48-36 "highly accurate" LOL & their final 2016 poll was + 11 clinton 49-38  Angry

I agree. This poll is terrible! It's not polling the Pennsylvania Amash vote

I doubt it would make a difference because that voting bloc is mostly in Michigan and has allegedly turned away from the Republicans to the Libertarians. Wink
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,085


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2020, 05:18:58 AM »
« Edited: September 24, 2020, 05:23:44 AM by wbrocks67 »
Correction: their last poll in August was Biden 49-42 (RV) so the race is virtually unchanged with the LV change.

And the CURRENT RV sample is actually Biden 49-40 in this poll. So actually an increase for Biden among RV from their last poll.

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/166320825519932897-f-m-poll-release-aug-2020.pdf
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,085


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2020, 05:28:35 AM »
Also, this explains a lot, again:

Trump fav: 40/57 (-17)
Biden fav: 48/46 (+2)
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,948


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2020, 05:47:38 AM »

Yes, F&M isn’t the best.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,085


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2020, 05:50:34 AM »

Well I assume they didn't weight by ed in 2016 like many others. But the question is, did they update? Their polling on this race has been pretty steady this year.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 88,492
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 24, 2020, 05:54:32 AM »
PA isn't going red
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.048 seconds with 12 queries.