PA-Franklin & Marshall: Biden +6
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  PA-Franklin & Marshall: Biden +6		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: PA-Franklin & Marshall: Biden +6  (Read 1708 times)
Gass3268
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« on: September 23, 2020, 07:55:11 PM »
« edited: September 23, 2020, 08:07:31 PM by Gass3268 »
LV (First Poll):

Biden 48%
Trump 42%

RV (August 26):

Biden 49% (+1)
Trump 40% (-2)

Source
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Splash
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2020, 07:56:03 PM »
I'll take it.
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Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy
darthpi
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2020, 07:56:09 PM »
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iamaganster123
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« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2020, 07:59:49 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2020, 08:17:32 PM by Ontario Nature Enthusiast »
 a bit of breather
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2020, 08:05:15 PM »
before the coney barrett bump
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2020, 08:07:28 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2020, 08:10:41 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
September 14-20
Among 480 likely voters
MoE for likely voters: 7.8% (!)

Biden 48%
Trump 42%

Among 625 registered voters
MoE for registered voters: 6.5%
Changes with August 17-24 poll

Biden 49% (-1)
Trump 40% (-2)

I don't know why the poll director insists the race has tightened given trends amongst registered voters. They didn't poll likely voters before, so if the margin looks tighter, it's probably because it was always going to be tighter among likely voters to begin with.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2020, 08:23:04 PM »
Good poll for Biden. Margin of error and sample size are a bit questionable.
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2020, 08:29:03 PM »
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Brittain33
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2020, 08:30:04 PM »
The gold standard has spoken
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Rand
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2020, 08:30:52 PM »
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Splash
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2020, 08:32:21 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on September 23, 2020, 08:23:04 PM
Good poll for Biden. Margin of error and sample size are a bit questionable.

I guess they subscribe to the Monmouth school of polling.
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หมูเด้ง
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2020, 09:10:16 PM »
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republican1993
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2020, 09:17:18 PM »
their poll in 2016 this time had clinton + 12 48-36 "highly accurate" LOL & their final 2016 poll was + 11 clinton 49-38  Angry
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republican1993
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« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2020, 09:18:00 PM »

gold standard with their + 11 clinton lead
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Holy Unifying Centrist
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« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2020, 09:22:24 PM »
Quote from: republican1993 on September 23, 2020, 09:17:18 PM
their poll in 2016 this time had clinton + 12 48-36 "highly accurate" LOL & their final 2016 poll was + 11 clinton 49-38  Angry

I agree. This poll is terrible! It's not polling the Pennsylvania Amash vote
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republican1993
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« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2020, 09:23:12 PM »
hahaha it's just not reliable from my experience and past results unless they fixed their weighting.
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Gracile
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« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2020, 09:27:14 PM »
Quote from: Unpolled Amash Voter for Trump on September 23, 2020, 09:22:24 PM
Quote from: republican1993 on September 23, 2020, 09:17:18 PM
their poll in 2016 this time had clinton + 12 48-36 "highly accurate" LOL & their final 2016 poll was + 11 clinton 49-38  Angry

I agree. This poll is terrible! It's not polling the Pennsylvania Amash vote

I doubt it would make a difference because that voting bloc is mostly in Michigan and has allegedly turned away from the Republicans to the Libertarians. Wink
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2020, 05:18:58 AM »
« Edited: September 24, 2020, 05:23:44 AM by wbrocks67 »
Correction: their last poll in August was Biden 49-42 (RV) so the race is virtually unchanged with the LV change.

And the CURRENT RV sample is actually Biden 49-40 in this poll. So actually an increase for Biden among RV from their last poll.

https://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/166320825519932897-f-m-poll-release-aug-2020.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2020, 05:28:35 AM »
Also, this explains a lot, again:

Trump fav: 40/57 (-17)
Biden fav: 48/46 (+2)
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Brittain33
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« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2020, 05:47:38 AM »

Yes, F&M isn’t the best.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: September 24, 2020, 05:50:34 AM »

Well I assume they didn't weight by ed in 2016 like many others. But the question is, did they update? Their polling on this race has been pretty steady this year.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #21 on: September 24, 2020, 05:54:32 AM »
PA isn't going red
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