1972 if Roe v. Wade and Doe v. Bolton had been decided BEFORE the election

[mianfei]

In recent days, one alternative history thread has occurred to me about the 1972 election.

In actual history, Roe v. Wade and Doe v. Bolton, which struck down state laws outlawing abortion, were decided on January 22, 1973, two-and-three quarter months after Republican Richard Nixon won a landslide carrying over 2,900 counties against Democrat George McGovern.

Even before I checked the dates of Roe and Doe, I was curious as to how the 1972 election would have played out if the Supreme Court had handed down those decisions before Election Day, 1972.

As it was McGovern was generally seen as a pro-abortion candidate, although his ultimate running mate, Sargent Shriver, was pro-life. Nevertheless, if Nixon had been President when Roe and Doe were decided, voters in 1972 would have been much less inclined to trust the incumbent President on the abortion issue than they actually were.

This has led me to think what voters in 1972 would have done with the abortion cases already decided?

Would John G. Schmitz have done much better than he actually did?

Would McGovern have tried to downplay or deny his support for abortion much more?

[Alben Barkley]

Abortion wasn’t as big of an issue at the time. Nixon didn’t even oppose Roe v. Wade and some of his justices made the decision. Evangelicals had not yet come out against abortion; the Southern Baptist Convention held multiple votes in the 70s affirming abortion, in fact. Part of why Carter was able to win the South. Wasn’t until around 1980 that the Moral Majority aligned with Reagan and made abortion a big deal.

All that said, it probably has little to no effect because the race wasn’t about abortion and both candidates would be seen as pro-choice. Anybody who was anti-choice (mostly just Catholics at that time) and cared strongly about it wasn’t gonna be super thrilled with either candidate; they might see Nixon as the lesser evil if anything so it’s not like they would suddenly flock to McGovern. Who I seriously doubt would moderate or reverse his position in the hopes of appealing to these voters; he was kind of like a proto-Sanders in that he strongly touted being ideologically consistent.

I really just fail to see how this changes anything.