Politico/Harvard/SSRS: Biden +10%

[Eraserhead]

"Pretty good polling day for Trump."

Not sure if this is a shot at me but this particular poll is literally from late August.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I think it's possible a lot of the battleground states in the sunbelt and the midwest will vote right around each other such that Biden could lose if he only wins the PV by 5 but could get 400+ EV's if he wins it by more than 9 points.

This has generally been my belief as well, which is why it’s weird to see the Sun Belt states polling way to the right of the Upper Midwest/PA. I know there are different dynamics at play in those regions and that there might be fewer persuadable voters/higher Republican floors in the Southern states, but I have a very hard time believing that FL is as competitive as IA and ME-02. Biden's strength in places like ME suggests a blowout of historic proportions, whereas his numbers in FL/GA/NC suggest a tilt/lean D race at best.

It wouldn’t surprise me if polls were yet again overrating Dems in the Midwest and underrating them in AZ, GA and TX. I think the two regions will converge closer together this cycle, too.

[Sbane]

I think it's possible a lot of the battleground states in the sunbelt and the midwest will vote right around each other such that Biden could lose if he only wins the PV by 5 but could get 400+ EV's if he wins it by more than 9 points.

This has generally been my belief as well, which is why it’s weird to see the Sun Belt states polling way to the right of the Upper Midwest/PA. I know there are different dynamics at play in those regions and that there might be fewer persuadable voters/higher Republican floors in the Southern states, but I have a very hard time believing that FL is as competitive as IA and ME-02. Biden's strength in places like ME suggests a blowout of historic proportions, whereas his numbers in FL/GA/NC suggest a tilt/lean D race at best.

One thing to consider is Trump got a larger percentage of the vote in places like NC and GA versus Minnesota or Maine. He didn't crack 45% in either of those two while getting about 50% in both NC and GA. He also got to 48.1 in PA and 48.6 in FL. Which is more than the 47.2 he managed in MI and WI. If he gets close to matching his numbers everywhere, you can see why the election is shaping up the way it is.

[MT Treasurer]

The Sun Belt states are less white than the ones in the Rust Belt, but whites are way more Republican in the former.

I’m aware of that, but I guess the question here is whether it’s really possible for Trump to win a large enough percentage of white voters in FL/NC/GA to remain competitive and/or overcome the unfavorable demographic trends in those states while simultaneously losing considerable support among white voters in the Upper Midwest/PA/New England/etc. Maybe I’m completely underestimating Biden's gains in some of those Obama/Trump areas in the North, but IMO regional peculiarities alone can’t explain a Democrat polling as well in IA/ME-02 as in FL/GA/NC in the year 2020. It’s not like WWC voters/whites without a college degree moving significantly to the right was a phenomenon unique to non-Southern states in 2016 either.

Depolarization along racial lines and/or similar polling biases to previous elections (with polls underestimating R strength in several Northern states while nailing or understating Democratic strength in several Sun Belt states) might be one explanation, but I have no idea. It’s just food for thought.

[Tekken_Guy]

The Sun Belt states are less white than the ones in the Rust Belt, but whites are way more Republican in the former.

I’m aware of that, but I guess the question here is whether it’s really possible for Trump to win a large enough percentage of white voters in FL/NC/GA to remain competitive and/or overcome the unfavorable demographic trends in those states while simultaneously losing considerable support among white voters in the Upper Midwest/PA/New England/etc. Maybe I’m completely underestimating Biden's gains in some of those Obama/Trump areas in the North, but IMO regional peculiarities alone can’t explain a Democrat polling as well in IA/ME-02 as in FL/GA/NC in the year 2020. It’s not like WWC voters/whites without a college degree moving significantly to the right was a phenomenon unique to non-Southern states in 2016 either.

Depolarization along racial lines and/or similar polling biases to previous elections (with polls underestimating R strength in several Northern states while nailing or understating Democratic strength in several Sun Belt states) might be one explanation, but I have no idea. It’s just food for thought.

There are plenty of Obama-Trump voters in the Midwest who will swing back for Biden pretty handily. There's far fewer of them in the South.

[ProudModerate2]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[GeneralMacArthur]

Relax, it's an old poll.

[MT Treasurer]

There are plenty of Obama-Trump voters in the Midwest who will swing back for Biden pretty handily. There's far fewer of them in the South.

Even if that’s the case, I don’t think the discrepancy will be this large. I’m more with TrendsAreReal on this one since trends are real and it seems very unlikely that those regions would diverge this strongly, but Sbane's suggestion (third-party voters + Democratic/Obama voters who stayed home breaking heavily for Biden in those states) is probably part of the story as well.