PA-CPEC: Biden+5

[n1240]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200923_PA.pdf

Biden 50
Trump 45

9/15-71, 820 LV

[Dr. Arch]

50% with 4% of voters undecided!

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MoE: 2.3%

Third party candidate 1%
Undecided 4%

[Alben Barkley]

Seems like in PA polls, even if Biden is not winning by as much as in other states, he is consistently hitting 50 or close to it and there are a lot fewer undecideds than in most states. So that's good I guess. Not hard at all to imagine these polls are hitting pretty close to what the actual numbers will be.

[Person Man]

That’s reasonable

[wbrocks67]

That’s reasonable

Yep, about 5 has been the average between the lower end of some of the polls (2/3) and upper end (7-8) so I'd say Biden+5 sounds about right tbh.

Morning Consult has also had Biden +5 the past 3 weeks too.

Biden also has a 12% lead among Independents, which is critical since Trump won them by 4.

[Gass3268]

Seems like in PA polls, even if Biden is not winning by as much as in other states, he is consistently hitting 50 or close to it and there are a lot fewer undecideds than in most states. So that's good I guess. Not hard at all to imagine these polls are hitting pretty close to what the actual numbers will be.

Yeah, Biden at around 50 and Trump at around 45 feels like where we are at.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

"Pretty good polling day for Trump."

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

isnt cpec dem affiliated? id be more comfortable if dem affiliated pollsters had Biden +7ish while non affiliated and gop affiliated lower ofc. Regardless, tilt D.

[Xing]

I could see PA voting a bit to the right of MI/WI (it's definitely not a given, though), but it seems Biden has been pretty consistently at or near 50%, meaning that it's hard not to see him as favored here.

[President Johnson]

About the margin I expect in the end, 51-46% for Uncle Joe.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Other Source on 2020-09-17

Summary: D: 50%, R: 45%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details