PA-CPEC: Biden+5
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Author Topic: PA-CPEC: Biden+5  (Read 1653 times)
n1240
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« on: September 23, 2020, 05:03:39 PM »
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200923_PA.pdf

Biden 50
Trump 45

9/15-71, 820 LV
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2020, 05:05:02 PM »
50% with 4% of voters undecided!
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2020, 05:05:08 PM »
MoE: 2.3%

Third party candidate 1%
Undecided 4%
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2020, 05:06:48 PM »
Seems like in PA polls, even if Biden is not winning by as much as in other states, he is consistently hitting 50 or close to it and there are a lot fewer undecideds than in most states. So that's good I guess. Not hard at all to imagine these polls are hitting pretty close to what the actual numbers will be.
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Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2020, 05:07:34 PM »
That’s reasonable
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2020, 05:10:27 PM »

Yep, about 5 has been the average between the lower end of some of the polls (2/3) and upper end (7-8) so I'd say Biden+5 sounds about right tbh.

Morning Consult has also had Biden +5 the past 3 weeks too.

Biden also has a 12% lead among Independents, which is critical since Trump won them by 4.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2020, 05:10:50 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on September 23, 2020, 05:06:48 PM
Seems like in PA polls, even if Biden is not winning by as much as in other states, he is consistently hitting 50 or close to it and there are a lot fewer undecideds than in most states. So that's good I guess. Not hard at all to imagine these polls are hitting pretty close to what the actual numbers will be.

Yeah, Biden at around 50 and Trump at around 45 feels like where we are at.
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Interlocutor
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2020, 05:25:20 PM »
"Pretty good polling day for Trump."
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Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2020, 07:28:26 PM »
isnt cpec dem affiliated? id be more comfortable if dem affiliated pollsters had Biden +7ish while non affiliated and gop affiliated lower ofc. Regardless, tilt D.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #9 on: September 24, 2020, 10:35:37 AM »
I could see PA voting a bit to the right of MI/WI (it's definitely not a given, though), but it seems Biden has been pretty consistently at or near 50%, meaning that it's hard not to see him as favored here.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #10 on: September 24, 2020, 03:14:49 PM »
About the margin I expect in the end, 51-46% for Uncle Joe.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2020, 08:25:32 PM »
New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Other Source on 2020-09-17

Summary: D: 50%, R: 45%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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