Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +1 in AZ, tied in FL

[Landslide Lyndon]

I'm tired of all this hand-wringing. If Biden wins by 7 nationally then he will carry both Arizona and Florida.

Also, I'm old enough to remember that some polls had McCain ahead or tied in Virginia, Colorado, Florida, and Ohio, even well into October.

[VAR]

Full releases: AZ | FL

AZ

GCB: R 45-44
Trump approval: 43/52 (-9)

Favorabilities:
Trump 47/53 (-6)
Biden 54/46 (+8)
Harris 54/46 (+8)
Pence 48/52 (-4)

FL

GCB: R 47-46
Trump approval: 48/47 (+1)

Favorabilities:
Trump 51/49 (+2)
Biden 56/44 (+12)
Harris 54/46 (+8)
Pence 57/43 (+14)

[wbrocks67]

I'm tired of all this hand-wringing. If Biden wins by 7 nationally then he will carry both Arizona and Florida.

Also, I'm old enough to remember that some polls had McCain ahead or tied in Virginia, Colorado, Florida, and Ohio, even well into October.

Like I said, Ipsos had Heller winning by 6 in late October 2018:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/412963-poll-heller-holds-six-point-lead-in-nevada

[Brittain33]

This defeats the "outlier" narrative on that ABC/WaPo poll

That poll had Trump +4 in Florida and you moved it from Tilt to Lean R as a result. This poll has a tie.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

"Atlas in disarray as polls confirm Tossup FL/NC to be Tossups. 'Throw them in the average' & 'Margin of Error' conveniently ignored for one day of freaking out."

[wbrocks67]

Full releases: AZ | FL

AZ

GCB: R 45-44
Trump approval: 43/52 (-9)

Favorabilities:
Trump 47/53 (-6)
Biden 54/46 (+8)
Harris 54/46 (+8)
Pence 48/52 (-4)

FL

GCB: R 47-46
Trump approval: 48/47 (+1)

Favorabilities:
Trump 51/49 (+2)
Biden 56/44 (+12)
Harris 54/46 (+8)
Pence 57/43 (+14)

These numbers make absolutely no sense on both ends so junk it. Biden and Pence with double digit favorabilities in FL?

[Skill and Chance]

This defeats the "outlier" narrative on that ABC/WaPo poll

That poll had Trump +4 in Florida and you moved it from Tilt to Lean R as a result. This poll has a tie.

Yeah, ABC/WaPo is still an outlier in Florida, but this poll has positive Trump approval in Florida which is a fairly big deal.  Biden had a lead in line with his national lead in Florida for most of the summer, so there has been real movement.

[neostassenite31]

Seems like this pollster is dropping swing state polls on a near daily basis. I wonder what's coming next in their coverage  

[wbrocks67]

This defeats the "outlier" narrative on that ABC/WaPo poll

That poll had Trump +4 in Florida and you moved it from Tilt to Lean R as a result. This poll has a tie.

Yeah, ABC/WaPo is still an outlier in Florida, but this poll has positive Trump approval in Florida which is a fairly big deal.  Biden had a lead in line with his national lead in Florida for most of the summer, so there has been real movement.

Or the polling was off. There was no way Biden was winning FL by any more than like 3, even with a double digital national lead.

[Arkansas Yankee]

When can we finally put the rest the "don't overreact to one poll" bromide with respect to Florida?

I think it’s pretty safe to say Florida will be close. Pretty much always is, isn’t it? I could see a situation in which Biden won it by more than usual due to his gains with seniors, but maybe not.

Still expect Biden to win AZ by a few points though.

Florida is always close when the national vote is close.  
But the national vote isn't close right now.  Florida should not be a toss-up when Biden is winning the country by ~8 points.

People need to start acknowledging that Biden's messaging specifically to Florida, and especially Florida Latinos, has been pretty bad.

How is it any worse than Trump? Trump continues to downplay the threat of COVID, repeatedly insults Puerto Rico, and has separated Latin American children from their parents in a measure so draconian it will be right up there with the internment of Japanese Americans during World War II as a modern day egregious violation of human rights.

Woolley you are living in your own universe.

[Hammy]

When can we finally put the rest the "don't overreact to one poll" bromide with respect to Florida?

I generally pay little attention to Florida's polling in general. There's no consistency and the state is similar to Nevada for who knows what reason so just assume it'll be within a point or so no matter who wins.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

AZ
565 likely voters
MoE: 4.7%

Some other candidate 2%
Would not vote 0%
Not sure 5%

FL

586 likely voters
MoE: 4.6%

Some other candidate 2%
Would not vote 0%
Not sure 4%

[woodley park]

When can we finally put the rest the "don't overreact to one poll" bromide with respect to Florida?

I think it’s pretty safe to say Florida will be close. Pretty much always is, isn’t it? I could see a situation in which Biden won it by more than usual due to his gains with seniors, but maybe not.

Still expect Biden to win AZ by a few points though.

Florida is always close when the national vote is close.  
But the national vote isn't close right now.  Florida should not be a toss-up when Biden is winning the country by ~8 points.

People need to start acknowledging that Biden's messaging specifically to Florida, and especially Florida Latinos, has been pretty bad.

How is it any worse than Trump? Trump continues to downplay the threat of COVID, repeatedly insults Puerto Rico, and has separated Latin American children from their parents in a measure so draconian it will be right up there with the internment of Japanese Americans during World War II as a modern day egregious violation of human rights.

Woolley you are living in your own universe.

Ahem, 'woodley'. And what universe exactly? The one called real life?

[ON Progressive]

Full releases: AZ | FL

AZ

GCB: R 45-44
Trump approval: 43/52 (-9)

Favorabilities:
Trump 47/53 (-6)
Biden 54/46 (+8)
Harris 54/46 (+8)
Pence 48/52 (-4)

FL

GCB: R 47-46
Trump approval: 48/47 (+1)

Favorabilities:
Trump 51/49 (+2)
Biden 56/44 (+12)
Harris 54/46 (+8)
Pence 57/43 (+14)

how in the world do you get a Biden +1 out of that AZ sample?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Like I said, Ipsos had Heller winning by 6 in late October 2018:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/412963-poll-heller-holds-six-point-lead-in-nevada

How is a cherrypicked poll by this pollster from two years ago in a different state relevant in the slightest? Your posts on this subforum are quite frankly embarrassing. Hackiest poster here by far.

[wbrocks67]

Like I said, Ipsos had Heller winning by 6 in late October 2018:

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/412963-poll-heller-holds-six-point-lead-in-nevada

How is a cherrypicked poll by this pollster from two years ago in a different state relevant in the slightest? Your posts on this subforum are quite frankly embarrassing. Hackiest poster here by far.

AZ is a latino heavy state, and NV is right next door similarly. So they clearly screwed up polling in NV, so what would make AZ any different? And if they're screwing up polling latinos, then it begs the question if the FL poll is reliable. You don't have to be such a jerk.

[Buzz]

Love the Arizona number.  I had given up on that state.

Likely D —> Lean D

[MT Treasurer]

Honestly remarkable how well Republicans have held up in FL under Trump's presidency, especially compared to the absolute collapse in GOP support we’ve seen in TX. I’m still not sure I buy FL being tied in a Biden +7-10 environment, but if Trump really holds the state (or it’s this close) while Biden easily wins the NPV + EC (again, big if), it’ll be safe to say that FL has replaced TX as the most populous (strongly) Republican-leaning state.

[Suburbia]

The race is close.

This is not going to be a Biden blowout

Biden needs Black/Latino/WWC coalition turnout to offset or cancel out Boomservatives

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Only pbower, with his 413 approval rating maps believes it gonna be a landslide. Cook is projecting a 291-47 EC maps

[Eraserhead]

Arizona is probably the state I'm most unsure about right now. Florida is also a tossup (as always) but gun to my head I think Trump prevails there.