NC-Civitas: Trump +1
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Author Topic: NC-Civitas: Trump +1  (Read 1945 times)
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« on: September 23, 2020, 01:55:09 PM »
Sep 17-20, 612 LV, MoE: 4%

Trump 45% (+1)
Biden 44% (-1)
Jorgensen 2%
Undecided 8%

https://www.nccivitas.org/polling/trump-biden-dead-heat/
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BlueSwan
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2020, 01:55:42 PM »
Some terrible state polls today
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Dr. Arch
Arch
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2020, 01:56:00 PM »

Margin of error movement.
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Woody
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« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2020, 01:56:25 PM »
Lean R.
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Rep Jessica
Jessica
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« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2020, 01:58:34 PM »
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Person Man
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2020, 01:58:57 PM »
No Senate race...
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2020, 01:59:57 PM »

They polled the Senate race and found Cunningham leading 44-38.
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Rand
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2020, 02:00:25 PM »

Quote from: SirWoodbury on September 08, 2020, 10:26:56 AM
This is why in general you shouldn't trust polls.
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Buzz
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2020, 02:01:23 PM »
Lean R stays Lean R
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ηєω ƒяσηтιєя
New Frontier
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2020, 02:03:23 PM »
Tossup stays Tossup.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2020, 02:08:34 PM »

So, if NC is Lean R with Trump+1, is PA Likely D with Biden+5?
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2020, 02:08:49 PM »

There are some bad ones but the good news is that most of these states aren't really "must win" for Biden. North Carolina definitely isn't.
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It’s so Joever
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2020, 02:12:14 PM »
This one is not that out of the ordinary.
NC was always a horse race with regards to polling.
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Woody
SirWoodbury
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« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2020, 02:12:20 PM »
« Edited: September 23, 2020, 02:20:44 PM by SirWoodbury »
Dude, you're forgetting that the Amish & Mennonites don't answer polls, and they're plenty in Pennsylvania.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2020, 02:15:15 PM »

Wow, that's really good for Cunningham then.
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kireev
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« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2020, 02:18:44 PM »
Again, it does seem that Biden, not Trump has a larger room to grow. More undecideds among blacks, Hillary, Other and non-voters in 2016: Biden is leading by large margins among all these groups.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #16 on: September 23, 2020, 02:21:27 PM »
Is Civitas banned from 538 or something?  Their earlier poll doesn't show up in their polling archive and they're not listed on their pollster rankings either.
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Jay 🏳️‍⚧️
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« Reply #17 on: September 23, 2020, 02:23:29 PM »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on September 23, 2020, 02:12:20 PM
Dude, you're forgetting that the Amish & Mennonites don't answer polls, and they're plenty in Pennsylvania.

The Amish are 0.63% of the state's population, while somewhat influential in 2016, they're not large enough to make a meaningful impact on a poll, lol.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #18 on: September 23, 2020, 02:58:46 PM »
This is an R pollster, so good for Biden.
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #19 on: September 23, 2020, 03:01:34 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 23, 2020, 02:58:46 PM
This is an R pollster, so good for Biden.

Harper/Civitas is a good pollster.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: September 23, 2020, 03:04:00 PM »

This has Trump's approval at 51%, which is clearly at least a few % too high
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VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #21 on: September 23, 2020, 03:05:16 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 23, 2020, 03:04:00 PM

This has Trump's approval at 51%, which is clearly at least a few % too high

I agree, but it’s a good pollster in general.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #22 on: September 23, 2020, 03:06:43 PM »
Quote from: VARepublican on September 23, 2020, 03:05:16 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on September 23, 2020, 03:04:00 PM

This has Trump's approval at 51%, which is clearly at least a few % too high

I agree, but it’s a good pollster in general.

Either way, NC continues to be a straight tossup, especially with 8% undecided. The fact that Biden/Trump both only at 45%-ish means anything can happen here.
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Hammy
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« Reply #23 on: September 23, 2020, 03:13:50 PM »
Once again both candidates are below their floor. Why has NC polling been such garbage this cycle?
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Arkansas Yankee
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« Reply #24 on: September 23, 2020, 03:30:35 PM »

I guess that is a matter of opinion!
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