Baldwin Wallace: Biden +9 WI; +8 MI; +3 PA; +1 OH

[psychprofessor]

MI
Biden 49.9%
Trump 41.9%
MOE 3.6%

OH
B 44.9%
T 44.3%
MOE 3.3%

PA
B 47.3%
T 44.6%
MOE 3.6%

WI
B 50.3%
T 41.0%
MOE 3.7%

Author notes full release and write up will be posted tomorrow.

[It’s so Joever]

Way too many undecideds.

[wbrocks67]

"a good day of polls for the president"

[VAR]

OH
B 44.9%
T 44.3%

“Tossup”

But yeah too many undecideds

[wbrocks67]

Change since their March poll:

Michigan
Biden 49.9% (+2.5%)
Trump 41.9% (+3.7%)

Ohio
Biden 44.9% (+1.8%)
Trump 44.3% (-0.3%)

Pennsylvania
Biden 47.3% (+2.8%)
Trump 44.6% (+0.5%)

Wisconsin
Biden 50.3% (+5.8%)
Trump 41.0% (-0.8%)

[KaiserDave]

Decimals. Junk.

[MR DARK BRANDON]

"a good day of polls for the president"

[Xing]

WiScOnSiN wIlL vOtE wAy To ThE rIgHt Of PeNnSyLvAnIa AnD mIcHiGaN

In all seriousness, too Democratic friendly in MI/OH/WI, but I never understood why people assumed that MI would vote 5-10% to the left of WI.

[Gass3268]

Biden surging

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Decimals. Junk.

Every poll has decimals. They just tend to round to a whole number

[wbrocks67]

WiScOnSiN wIlL vOtE wAy To ThE rIgHt Of PeNnSyLvAnIa AnD mIcHiGaN

In all seriousness, too Democratic friendly in MI/OH/WI, but I never understood why people assumed that MI would vote 5-10% to the left of WI.

I mean clearly Ohio is too D friendly, but we've seen a pretty stream of polls now for Michigan especially that put it in the ~7/8 range, and with Wisconsin, like 6-8.

[n1240]

They had Clinton+11 a month before the election in 2016, which is a pretty bad miss. They weren't weighing by education or race and ended up with a 55% college ed sample which might've contributed to their result. They seem to be weighing by education now but the limited verifiable track record for them isn't very good. They polled some primary races but most of those polls were from January so it's harder to verify the results of those polls.

[Person Man]

Looks like Kenosha had the opposite effect. Apparently when the authorities do something racist, it doesn’t make the public more racist.

[wbrocks67]

They had Clinton+11 a month before the election in 2016, which is a pretty bad miss. They weren't weighing by education or race and ended up with a 55% college ed sample which might've contributed to their result. They seem to be weighing by education now but the limited verifiable track record for them isn't very good. They polled some primary races but most of those polls were from January so it's harder to verify the results of those polls.

Interesting. I mean, these results aren't terribly off from what we've seen in the averages - MI/WI 6-8pt Biden lead, Biden close to his ~4/5 pt PA lead and Ohio about a dead heat

[Gass3268]

Looks like Kenosha had the opposite effect. Apparently when the authorities do something racist, it doesn’t make the public more racist.

COVID is also surging in the state right now.

[Niemeyerite]

I think we can move MI and WI to Likely Biden already, he's ovee 50% in many, many polls. That makes things really difficult for Trump. I don't see how he wins if he's not extremely lucky (again) and somehow manages to convince every undecided vote in every toss-up state. And even then he's getting 279 EVs. If I were Biden I'd spend as much money and time in PA in AZ as possible. Winning just one of them is enough for him.

[lfromnj]

I think we can move MI and WI to Likely Biden already, he's ovee 50% in many, many polls. That makes things really difficult for Trump. I don't see how he wins if he's not extremely lucky (again) and somehow manages to convince every undecided vote in every toss-up state. And even then he's getting 279 EVs. If I were Biden I'd spend as much money and time in PA in AZ as possible. Winning just one of them is enough for him.

Im not moving Wisconsin to Likely Biden till I see those numbers from Marquette.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Four pages and growing of replies on a poll that has Trump leading Florida, one page of replies on a poll that has Trump losing all of the battle ground states in the Midwest.

Because Atlas.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Lol decimals

[President Johnson]

Okay, maybe Ohio is actually a pure tossup and not Lean Republican just because of 2016 and the 2018 gubernatorial election? Still think Trump is going to win the state and both candidates under 45% in this poll, but Ohio has been tight in numerous polls now. That can't be discounted.

Pennsylvania continues to be stubborn.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

I would not read into trends as their last polls were of registered, not likely, voters.

September 8-22
All of likely voters

MI: 1001
OH: 1011

Third party candidate 3%
Unsure 7%

PA: 1012
WI: 863

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Remember, every PA poll should be shifted 4% to the right because of the unpolled Amash vote. Trump is leading by 1!

[Badger]

Decimals. Junk.

I've never understood that rule and don't necessarily follow it. I think it's just because a handful of particularly bad posters like, i i r c, zogby and gravis, regularly used decimals that they were unfairly considered a symptom of bad polling.

Too lazy to look it up, but I thought Baldwin Wallace was at least a semi respectable pollster.

Edit. Still disappointed at my native state and my adopted home State's continued intransigence and willingness to even nominally back that boob in the Oval Office

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

All the Rs think IA and OH are done deals, are mistaken, OH and IA are still in play, and Obama and Biden won both states and Joni Ernst is behind Greenfield. Kasich also endorsed Biden, already.

[It’s so Joever]

WiScOnSiN wIlL vOtE wAy To ThE rIgHt Of PeNnSyLvAnIa AnD mIcHiGaN

In all seriousness, too Democratic friendly in MI/OH/WI, but I never understood why people assumed that MI would vote 5-10% to the left of WI.

I know it’s an unpopular opinion here, but I think MI will vote right of both WI and PA.