GA-Monmouth: Trump +1% RVs, +2% or +5% among LVs

[Niemeyerite]

And Biden campaign hasn't been in full gear in Georgia yet! Not bad at all.

[Eraserhead]

Pretty good polling day for Trump.

See: this is what pundits are doing on Twitter as well. How is Georgia being effectively a tie good for Trump? If Biden was losing by 1 in Minnesota or Nevada, this would not be the attitude at all.

ABC polls were good for him, no doubt. But him being tied in Georgia is... not good news for him.

Oh: and Trump is at 2% black voters nationally, per YouGov. But sure, good polling day for him. Come on man.

Biden is down 2%-5% based on likely voters, that's not a tie. It's also a " pretty good" day relative to where he's been, which is clearly behind. I didn't think I'd need to spell that out on here but okay.

[wbrocks67]

Pretty good polling day for Trump.

See: this is what pundits are doing on Twitter as well. How is Georgia being effectively a tie good for Trump? If Biden was losing by 1 in Minnesota or Nevada, this would not be the attitude at all.

ABC polls were good for him, no doubt. But him being tied in Georgia is... not good news for him.

Oh: and Trump is at 2% black voters nationally, per YouGov. But sure, good polling day for him. Come on man.

Biden is down 2%-5% based on likely voters, that's not a tie. It's also a " pretty good" day relative to where he's been, which is clearly behind. I didn't think I'd need to spell that out on here but okay.

Not sure why you're including the 5% low turnout model since that's clearly not happening, so Biden being down 1-2 is not bad at all, especially considering Georgia polls have mainly been about 1-2pts towards Biden or Trump. It sounds like you're searching for a narrative that doesn't exist in reality.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 17-21
402 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.9%
Changes with July 23-27 poll

Registered voters
Biden 47% (+1)
Trump 47% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% (-1)
No one 0% (but some voters) (n/c from candidate at 0% and with no voters)
Other candidate 0% (no voters) (n/c from other candidate at 0% but with some voters)
Undecided 4% (+1)

Higher than 2016 turnout model
Trump 48% (n/c)
Biden 46% (-1)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Undecided 4% (+1)

Lower than 2016 turnout model
Trump 50% (+1)
Biden 45% (-1)
Jorgensen 1% (-1)
Undecided 3% (-1)

[wbrocks67]

September 17-21
402 registered/likely voters
MoE: 4.9%
Changes with July 23-27 poll

Registered voters
Biden 47% (+1)
Trump 47% (n/c)
Jorgensen 2% (-1)
No one 0% (but some voters) (n/c from candidate at 0% and with no voters)
Other candidate 0% (no voters) (n/c from other candidate at 0% but with some voters)
Undecided 4% (+1)

Higher than 2016 turnout model
Trump 48% (n/c)
Biden 46% (-1)
Jorgensen 2% (n/c)
Undecided 4% (+1)

Lower than 2016 turnout model
Trump 50% (+1)
Biden 45% (-1)
Jorgensen 1% (-1)
Undecided 3% (-1)

Once again, though, so if we have higher turnout than 2016, it benefits Trump, and if we have lower turnout than 2016, it benefits Trump. I don't understand this?

[MT Treasurer]

This also shows Perdue ahead by a margin that’s hard to believe. The last thing Republicans should do is assume that this state is guaranteed to stay R in a close race or that it couldn’t possibly vote for Biden if Trump holds FL/NC or even does well in the Upper Midwest and PA. Pure Toss-up.

[freepcrusher]

my question is this - if Biden wins in 2020 - can dems win Georgia without having lost a presidential election first. I mean I feel that Obama winning in 2008 slowed down the trend of places like Johnson County, KS (which might go dem this year) to the dems.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

This also shows Perdue ahead by a margin that’s hard to believe.

Even his Cobb-Fulton base isn't immune to nationalisation of the race. Perhaps he'll get back into double digits if he casts his vote for ACB in an inoffensive manner.

[Woody]

This also shows Perdue ahead by a margin that’s hard to believe. The last thing Republicans should do is assume that this state is guaranteed to stay R in a close race or that it couldn’t possibly vote for Biden if Trump holds FL/NC or even does well in the Upper Midwest and PA. Pure Toss-up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia

[Existing in the context]

This also shows Perdue ahead by a margin that’s hard to believe. The last thing Republicans should do is assume that this state is guaranteed to stay R in a close race or that it couldn’t possibly vote for Biden if Trump holds FL/NC or even does well in the Upper Midwest and PA. Pure Toss-up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_United_States_Senate_election_in_Georgia

David Perdue is nowhere near as popular as Isakson.

[Eraserhead]

Pretty good polling day for Trump.

See: this is what pundits are doing on Twitter as well. How is Georgia being effectively a tie good for Trump? If Biden was losing by 1 in Minnesota or Nevada, this would not be the attitude at all.

ABC polls were good for him, no doubt. But him being tied in Georgia is... not good news for him.

Oh: and Trump is at 2% black voters nationally, per YouGov. But sure, good polling day for him. Come on man.

Biden is down 2%-5% based on likely voters, that's not a tie. It's also a " pretty good" day relative to where he's been, which is clearly behind. I didn't think I'd need to spell that out on here but okay.

Not sure why you're including the 5% low turnout model since that's clearly not happening, so Biden being down 1-2 is not bad at all, especially considering Georgia polls have mainly been about 1-2pts towards Biden or Trump. It sounds like you're searching for a narrative that doesn't exist in reality.

Really, do you know what the turnout is going to look like already? I wonder why Monmouth, a pretty legit pollster, included it since it's definitely "not happening" according to you. Perhaps you're the one searching for something since you're casting aside ABC/WP polls in favor of focusing on crosstabs from YouGov.

[wbrocks67]

Pretty good polling day for Trump.

See: this is what pundits are doing on Twitter as well. How is Georgia being effectively a tie good for Trump? If Biden was losing by 1 in Minnesota or Nevada, this would not be the attitude at all.

ABC polls were good for him, no doubt. But him being tied in Georgia is... not good news for him.

Oh: and Trump is at 2% black voters nationally, per YouGov. But sure, good polling day for him. Come on man.

Biden is down 2%-5% based on likely voters, that's not a tie. It's also a " pretty good" day relative to where he's been, which is clearly behind. I didn't think I'd need to spell that out on here but okay.

Not sure why you're including the 5% low turnout model since that's clearly not happening, so Biden being down 1-2 is not bad at all, especially considering Georgia polls have mainly been about 1-2pts towards Biden or Trump. It sounds like you're searching for a narrative that doesn't exist in reality.

Really, do you know what the turnout is going to look like already? I wonder why Monmouth, a pretty legit pollster, included it since it's definitely "not happening" according to you. Perhaps you're the one searching for something since you're casting aside ABC/WP polls in favor of focusing on crosstabs from YouGov.

Every single anecdote AND piece of actual evidence points to this being a high turnout election. You'd be kidding yourself or just blatantly ignoring everything that's infront of us to believe otherwise.

[Eraserhead]

Pretty good polling day for Trump.

See: this is what pundits are doing on Twitter as well. How is Georgia being effectively a tie good for Trump? If Biden was losing by 1 in Minnesota or Nevada, this would not be the attitude at all.

ABC polls were good for him, no doubt. But him being tied in Georgia is... not good news for him.

Oh: and Trump is at 2% black voters nationally, per YouGov. But sure, good polling day for him. Come on man.

Biden is down 2%-5% based on likely voters, that's not a tie. It's also a " pretty good" day relative to where he's been, which is clearly behind. I didn't think I'd need to spell that out on here but okay.

Not sure why you're including the 5% low turnout model since that's clearly not happening, so Biden being down 1-2 is not bad at all, especially considering Georgia polls have mainly been about 1-2pts towards Biden or Trump. It sounds like you're searching for a narrative that doesn't exist in reality.

Really, do you know what the turnout is going to look like already? I wonder why Monmouth, a pretty legit pollster, included it since it's definitely "not happening" according to you. Perhaps you're the one searching for something since you're casting aside ABC/WP polls in favor of focusing on crosstabs from YouGov.

Every single anecdote AND piece of actual evidence points to this being a high turnout election. You'd be kidding yourself or just blatantly ignoring everything that's infront of us to believe otherwise.

That's great and it probably will have high turnout but the election hasn't happened yet which is why they release multiple models. I don't dismiss the ones I don't like out of hand.

[WD]

Pretty good polling day for Trump.

See: this is what pundits are doing on Twitter as well. How is Georgia being effectively a tie good for Trump? If Biden was losing by 1 in Minnesota or Nevada, this would not be the attitude at all.

ABC polls were good for him, no doubt. But him being tied in Georgia is... not good news for him.

Oh: and Trump is at 2% black voters nationally, per YouGov. But sure, good polling day for him. Come on man.

Biden is down 2%-5% based on likely voters, that's not a tie. It's also a " pretty good" day relative to where he's been, which is clearly behind. I didn't think I'd need to spell that out on here but okay.

Not sure why you're including the 5% low turnout model since that's clearly not happening, so Biden being down 1-2 is not bad at all, especially considering Georgia polls have mainly been about 1-2pts towards Biden or Trump. It sounds like you're searching for a narrative that doesn't exist in reality.

Really, do you know what the turnout is going to look like already? I wonder why Monmouth, a pretty legit pollster, included it since it's definitely "not happening" according to you. Perhaps you're the one searching for something since you're casting aside ABC/WP polls in favor of focusing on crosstabs from YouGov.

Every single anecdote AND piece of actual evidence points to this being a high turnout election. You'd be kidding yourself or just blatantly ignoring everything that's infront of us to believe otherwise.

That's great and it probably will have high turnout but the election hasn't happened yet which is why they release multiple models. I don't dismiss the ones I don't like out of hand.

It’s not about dismissing it out of hand, it’s about not giving much credence to an outcome that almost certainly won’t happen. It’s like a pollster having a model where turnout among a certain demographic is 0%. Sure, it’s interesting to see the results of such, but it almost certainly won’t happen.

[Eraserhead]

Pretty good polling day for Trump.

See: this is what pundits are doing on Twitter as well. How is Georgia being effectively a tie good for Trump? If Biden was losing by 1 in Minnesota or Nevada, this would not be the attitude at all.

ABC polls were good for him, no doubt. But him being tied in Georgia is... not good news for him.

Oh: and Trump is at 2% black voters nationally, per YouGov. But sure, good polling day for him. Come on man.

Biden is down 2%-5% based on likely voters, that's not a tie. It's also a " pretty good" day relative to where he's been, which is clearly behind. I didn't think I'd need to spell that out on here but okay.

Not sure why you're including the 5% low turnout model since that's clearly not happening, so Biden being down 1-2 is not bad at all, especially considering Georgia polls have mainly been about 1-2pts towards Biden or Trump. It sounds like you're searching for a narrative that doesn't exist in reality.

Really, do you know what the turnout is going to look like already? I wonder why Monmouth, a pretty legit pollster, included it since it's definitely "not happening" according to you. Perhaps you're the one searching for something since you're casting aside ABC/WP polls in favor of focusing on crosstabs from YouGov.

Every single anecdote AND piece of actual evidence points to this being a high turnout election. You'd be kidding yourself or just blatantly ignoring everything that's infront of us to believe otherwise.

That's great and it probably will have high turnout but the election hasn't happened yet which is why they release multiple models. I don't dismiss the ones I don't like out of hand.

It’s not about dismissing it out of hand, it’s about not giving much credence to an outcome that almost certainly won’t happen. It’s like a pollster having a model where turnout among a certain demographic is 0%. Sure, it’s interesting to see the results of such, but it almost certainly won’t happen.

All I said is that Biden is down 2%-5% based on their likely voter models.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pretty good polling day for Trump.

See: this is what pundits are doing on Twitter as well. How is Georgia being effectively a tie good for Trump? If Biden was losing by 1 in Minnesota or Nevada, this would not be the attitude at all.

ABC polls were good for him, no doubt. But him being tied in Georgia is... not good news for him.

Oh: and Trump is at 2% black voters nationally, per YouGov. But sure, good polling day for him. Come on man.

Biden is down 2%-5% based on likely voters, that's not a tie. It's also a " pretty good" day relative to where he's been, which is clearly behind. I didn't think I'd need to spell that out on here but okay.

Not sure why you're including the 5% low turnout model since that's clearly not happening, so Biden being down 1-2 is not bad at all, especially considering Georgia polls have mainly been about 1-2pts towards Biden or Trump. It sounds like you're searching for a narrative that doesn't exist in reality.

A "Lower turnout"-style scenario (in terms of recognised votes) could happen as a result of voter suppression advancing since 2016 in the state.

[Eraserhead]

Pretty good polling day for Trump.

See: this is what pundits are doing on Twitter as well. How is Georgia being effectively a tie good for Trump? If Biden was losing by 1 in Minnesota or Nevada, this would not be the attitude at all.

ABC polls were good for him, no doubt. But him being tied in Georgia is... not good news for him.

Oh: and Trump is at 2% black voters nationally, per YouGov. But sure, good polling day for him. Come on man.

Biden is down 2%-5% based on likely voters, that's not a tie. It's also a " pretty good" day relative to where he's been, which is clearly behind. I didn't think I'd need to spell that out on here but okay.

Not sure why you're including the 5% low turnout model since that's clearly not happening, so Biden being down 1-2 is not bad at all, especially considering Georgia polls have mainly been about 1-2pts towards Biden or Trump. It sounds like you're searching for a narrative that doesn't exist in reality.

A "Lower turnout"-style scenario (in terms of recognised votes) could happen as a result of voter suppression advancing since 2016 in the state.

Also a good point.

[Hammy]

I don't get the low turnout models when this election clearly won't be. I'll take it Georgia +1 to +2 for Trump

I think the assumption is that many people will want to vote but can't/won't due to mail delays or long lines & unsafe voting locations due the pandemic. Which is itself a problematic assumption.

Considering that numerous upon numerous states hit record primary turnout this year during the pandemic, yeah, this just seems like a really bad assumption

Not this again. Primary turnout is meaningless considering it's still well below GE turnout and has never been an indicator of the GE vote. If it was we'd have Hillary Clinton as president.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Georgia President by Monmouth University on 2020-09-21

Summary: D: 46%, R: 48%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details