GA-Monmouth: Trump +1% RVs, +2% or +5% among LVs

[JRP1994]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1308783504738656257

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Race is still a tossup.

[Gass3268]

Toss Up

[wbrocks67]

Tossup race so +1/2 in either direction is expected.

Monmouth really needs to toss their low turnout model though.

Also, still don't understand how the "high turnout model" benefits Trump in every single poll they do.

[Bootes Void]

I don't get the low turnout models when this election clearly won't be. I'll take it Georgia +1 to +2 for Trump

[CellarDoor]

Seems like the GOP base in GA is consolidating around Trump.

Not really.

Among all registered voters in Georgia, Trump is supported by 47% and Biden is supported by 46%. Another 2% say they will vote for Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and 4% are undecided. These results include 42% who are certain to vote for Trump and 40% who say are certain about Biden. At the other end of the spectrum, 44% say they are not at all likely to vote for the incumbent and 46% say the same for challenger. The race remains tight when different likely voter models are applied. A model based on a higher level of turnout than 2016 puts the race at 48% Trump and 46% Biden while one reflecting lower turnout produces a similar 50% Trump and 45% Biden result. These results are nearly identical to Monmouth’s July poll (see table).

[Devils30]

The undecideds skew younger. GA so far in polling is slight Trump but it really only takes a modest polling error to get Biden to a 0-2% win.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Seems like the GOP base in GA is consolidating around Trump.

Not really.

Among all registered voters in Georgia, Trump is supported by 47% and Biden is supported by 46%. Another 2% say they will vote for Libertarian Jo Jorgensen and 4% are undecided. These results include 42% who are certain to vote for Trump and 40% who say are certain about Biden. At the other end of the spectrum, 44% say they are not at all likely to vote for the incumbent and 46% say the same for challenger. The race remains tight when different likely voter models are applied. A model based on a higher level of turnout than 2016 puts the race at 48% Trump and 46% Biden while one reflecting lower turnout produces a similar 50% Trump and 45% Biden result. These results are nearly identical to Monmouth’s July poll (see table).

Fair enough. I changed my post.

[Tender Branson]

Damn, this low/high voter turnout model crap is annoying.

They should poll registered voters on a 0-10 scale of voting enthusiasm, and everything above 70 is high. Everything below 60 is low. If they find something between 60-70, they should model their poll accordingly to use a medium turnout outcome.

[Skye]

I dunno, but I think any scenario other than "High turnout" isn't going to happen.

[Devils30]

Trump will get all of Kemp's voters, Biden all of Abrams'. The question is if new voters can get Biden to close the gap.

[wbrocks67]

Their July poll was a bit R-leaning and judging by the Senate #s being nearly the same (Perdue with a +6 lead which isn't borne out in many other polls), I'm led to believe this one is as well.

[n1240]

about 33% more undecided voters are black than white, would imply Biden could win if this sample were 100% decided, but race will be very close regardless.

[Buzz]

Close race remains close.   Trump is visiting the state on Friday.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I don't get the low turnout models when this election clearly won't be. I'll take it Georgia +1 to +2 for Trump

I think the assumption is that many people will want to vote but can't/won't due to mail delays or long lines & unsafe voting locations due the pandemic. Which is itself a problematic assumption.

[wbrocks67]

I don't get the low turnout models when this election clearly won't be. I'll take it Georgia +1 to +2 for Trump

I think the assumption is that many people will want to vote but can't/won't due to mail delays or long lines & unsafe voting locations due the pandemic. Which is itself a problematic assumption.

Considering that numerous upon numerous states hit record primary turnout this year during the pandemic, yeah, this just seems like a really bad assumption

[Horus]

I don't get the low turnout models when this election clearly won't be. I'll take it Georgia +1 to +2 for Trump

I think the assumption is that many people will want to vote but can't/won't due to mail delays or long lines & unsafe voting locations due the pandemic. Which is itself a problematic assumption.

Considering that numerous upon numerous states hit record primary turnout this year during the pandemic, yeah, this just seems like a really bad assumption

Could also be accounting for a record amount of rejected mail-in ballots, which is quite likely, especially here. And of course the two groups most likely to vote by mail, 18-29s and over 65s, are the most Dem this election.

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting.  Should Biden compete here or not?

[Gass3268]

Interesting.  Should Biden compete here or not?

They are dumping in money right now and Trump is visiting this week. I think that answers that question.

[Rep Jessica]

Ga leans Trump! I'll be another cycle or two before a democrat can win the state at the presidential level.

[wbrocks67]

The party ID here is R+7...

[Eraserhead]

Pretty good polling day for Trump.

[wbrocks67]

Pretty good polling day for Trump.

See: this is what pundits are doing on Twitter as well. How is Georgia being effectively a tie good for Trump? If Biden was losing by 1 in Minnesota or Nevada, this would not be the attitude at all.

ABC polls were good for him, no doubt. But him being tied in Georgia is... not good news for him.

Oh: and Trump is at 2% black voters nationally, per YouGov. But sure, good polling day for him. Come on man.

[Person Man]

Ga leans Trump! I'll be another cycle or two before a democrat can win the state at the presidential level.

The next Democratic President wins Georgia.

[redjohn]

Was hoping for a Biden lead in this poll. With super-charged turnout, Biden can win. Trump probably currently has a slight advantage here.