Change Research: Biden +9 nationally, leads all battleground states

[wbrocks67]

September 18-20, in the field post-RBG death

Biden 51 (+2)
Trump 42 (-1)

AZ
Biden 49 (=)
Trump 43 (-2)

FL
Biden 49 (=)
Trump 46 (=)

MI
Biden 51 (+2)
Trump 43 (=)

NC
Biden 48 (-1)
Trump 46 (-1)

PA
Biden 49 (-1)
Trump 45 (-1)

WI
Biden 51 (+1)
Trump 42 (-2)

Changes from their last poll (Sept 4-6)

https://changeresearch.com/post/states-of-play-battleground-wave-14/

[psychprofessor]

There is not one poll in this lot that looks good for Trump.

[wbrocks67]

Opinions of Trump have worsened, while Bidens' favorability continues to improve

Biden now leads by 9 points nationally (51% to 42%), a 3 point shift in margin towards Biden over two weeks. This is Biden’s best performance nationally since late June at the height of the historic George Floyd protests, and is reasonably assumed to be a reaction to the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Trump’s favorability has also taken a hit while opinions of Biden have improved. Nationally, Trump’s favorability is +16 net unfavorable (down from +13 net unfavorable two weeks ago), and opinions of Biden are net-neutral (48% favorable, 48% unfavorable), a 6 point shift over two weeks.

[Person Man]

Mmmmm.... oh heck yeah.

[ultraviolet]

Beautiful polls

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

For CNBC
Changes with September 4-6 polls

National
1430 likely voters
MoE: 2.59%

Jorgensen 4% (+1)
Hawkins 1% (-1)
Would not vote 0% (-1)
Not sure 3% (+1)

AZ
262 likely voters

FL
702 likely voters

MI
568 likely voters

NC
579 likely voters

PA
579 likely voters

WI
571 likely voters

[Person Man]

This brings Biden out of that < 7 danger zone on 538 at least.

My take is
>9  Trump collapsing
7-9 Where the race is
5-7 The race is tightening
3-5 Trump is about caught up
0-3 Trump is pulling ahead
<0 Biden is collapsing

[StateBoiler]

This is the same pollster that said the Libertarian governor nominee in Indiana was at 24%?

[bilaps]

Junk it.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Very nice trends for Biden here.  They should have made more of an effort to get more AZ respondents though; I don’t even know if I would count 262 people as a “poll”.

[Sir Mohamed]

Good polls for Biden, but PA continues to be the hardest to flip back from the Big 3. Who would have thought 6 months ago, let alone a year? Maybe it was good for Dems to nominate Biden who has some homestate advantage here. It may have been even closer with the other Dem candidates.

[republican1993]

this is d friendly + junk lol but if dems want to feel good about the race i guess you look forward to this crap..

[wbrocks67]

Good polls for Biden, but PA continues to be the hardest to flip back from the Big 3. Who would have thought 6 months ago, let alone a year? Maybe it was good for Dems to nominate Biden who has some homestate advantage here. It may have been even closer with the other Dem candidates.

I could be wrong, but I think PA needs more high quality polling. The last actual high quality polls that we've gotten out of PA were Q-pac and Marist, both of which had it at 8/9. Other than those, we've gotten B/C pollsters ever since.

[psychprofessor]

this is d friendly + junk lol but if dems want to feel good about the race i guess you look forward to this crap..

or you just look at the national race and see Biden +7-9 and feel pretty good.

[Rand]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

That’s the sound of millions of early voters marking Joe Biden on their ballots.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

this is d friendly

Were you saying the same thing when this same firm had Trump +4 in PA a few months back?