FL - St. Pete Polls: Biden +3%
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  FL - St. Pete Polls: Biden +3%		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: FL - St. Pete Polls: Biden +3%  (Read 1532 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« on: September 23, 2020, 06:28:12 AM »
http://stpetepolls.org/files/StPetePolls_2020_State_President_September22_U5GDL.pdf

September 21-22
2906 likely voters
MoE: 1.8%
Changes with September 7-8 poll
Swings calculated pre-rounding, hence swings of +1 in two cases despite both polls rounding both results in each case to the same integer.

Biden 50% (n/c)
Trump 47% (+1)
Third party 2% (n/c)
Undecided 2% (+1)
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Horus
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2020, 06:31:32 AM »
100% Post-RBG, unlike the ABC poll. St. Pete polls leans a few points D so this probably means Florida is tied or Trump +1. I expect a final result here of Trump +2.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2020, 06:32:36 AM »
Something key here: this has Biden winning 18-49 year olds by double digits. ABC/Wapo has Trump winning 18-49 year olds.
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Buzz
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« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2020, 07:06:54 AM »
St Pete has been Dem friendly this cycle. 
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2020, 07:13:28 AM »
Quote from: Buzz on September 23, 2020, 07:06:54 AM
St Pete has been Dem friendly this cycle. 

Biden +3 is not that Dem friendly...
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2020, 07:30:39 AM »
2906...MUCH better sample size.
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Podgy the Bear
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2020, 08:48:35 AM »
A well-designed and well-conducted poll.
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Sir Mohamed
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2020, 09:04:17 AM »
Big sample size of likely voters and Biden at 50% is great news. If he wins FL, Trump is done. He needs these 29 EVs, while Biden has numerous other paths to 270.
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Paul Biya isn’t going far enough
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2020, 09:30:58 AM »
Quote from: Horus on September 23, 2020, 06:31:32 AM
100% Post-RBG, unlike the ABC poll. St. Pete polls leans a few points D so this probably means Florida is tied or Trump +1. I expect a final result here of Trump +2.
Are you sure about that?
I always thought St Pete Polls were pretty good.
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Arizona Iced Tea
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2020, 09:35:05 AM »
Quote from: Forumlurker161 on September 23, 2020, 09:30:58 AM
Quote from: Horus on September 23, 2020, 06:31:32 AM
100% Post-RBG, unlike the ABC poll. St. Pete polls leans a few points D so this probably means Florida is tied or Trump +1. I expect a final result here of Trump +2.
Are you sure about that?
I always thought St Pete Polls were pretty good.
They have only called 52% of races correctly per 538. Rasmussen and Trafalgar are in the mid/high 70's.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/
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republican1993
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2020, 09:36:23 AM »
dem friendly - if you look at the cross tabs it says trump only getting 79% of republican vote...
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2020, 09:36:54 AM »
Quote from: Forumlurker161 on September 23, 2020, 09:30:58 AM
Quote from: Horus on September 23, 2020, 06:31:32 AM
100% Post-RBG, unlike the ABC poll. St. Pete polls leans a few points D so this probably means Florida is tied or Trump +1. I expect a final result here of Trump +2.
Are you sure about that?
I always thought St Pete Polls were pretty good.

In 2018, their last two polls of FL senate averaged Nelson +1.5 (Scott +0.2 final result), so they may have a *slight* D bias but not a whole lot. A D 1.7 shift would still give Biden a 1% win here.
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KaiserDave
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2020, 09:44:23 AM »
This will get two pages max
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Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
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« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2020, 09:45:13 AM »
Quote from: republican1993 on September 23, 2020, 09:36:23 AM
dem friendly - if you look at the cross tabs it says trump only getting 79% of republican vote...

Relatively small subsample, he's also getting 16% of Dems. Probably some of these are just registered GOP or Dem.
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