AZ, FL - ABC/WaPo: Trump +1%, Trump +4%

[Horus]

Never thought I'd say this but it looks like Georgia may be more likely to flip than Florida.

AZ looks like an outlier, I find it very hard to believe Kelly is only up one. Though of course if those numbers are corroborated Biden is in deep trouble.

[Horus]

Odd, throw them in the average. Other than the WI poll, these ABC/Washington Post polls have been all over the place.

The big concern for me is that the average in Florida is so close right now.  There are many, many polls showing an essentially even race there at the same time Biden leads by 7-8 points nationally.  Why had this state trended so dramatically right in the past couple years?

Older Cubans really don't like Biden, a continued influx of white retirees, and the under discussed Haitian vote is not as monolithically Dem as AAs

[Horus]

Odd, throw them in the average. Other than the WI poll, these ABC/Washington Post polls have been all over the place.

The big concern for me is that the average in Florida is so close right now.  There are many, many polls showing an essentially even race there at the same time Biden leads by 7-8 points nationally.  Why had this state trended so dramatically right in the past couple years?

Older Cubans really don't like Biden, a continued influx of white retirees, and the under discussed Haitian vote is not as monolithically Dem as AAs

Abortion?

That's certainly part of it I'm sure, Haitians are very socially conservative and heavily catholic.

[Horus]

Just saw that this AZ poll has Biden up 13 points in Maricopa County. It's mathematically impossible for him to Maricopa County by that margin and lose the state.

Not if he does much better with rural Hispanics and the Native vote which is certainly possible.