AZ, FL - ABC/WaPo: Trump +1%, Trump +4% (user search)
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  AZ, FL - ABC/WaPo: Trump +1%, Trump +4% (search mode)
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Author Topic: AZ, FL - ABC/WaPo: Trump +1%, Trump +4%  (Read 7485 times)
Buzz
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Posts: 2,186


« on: September 23, 2020, 07:05:57 AM »

THANK YOU!! The greatest of honors!!

On a more serious note, it’s a outlier for now.  The AZ number especially.   FL doesn’t surprise me, I still don’t buy Trump is gonna do significantly worse with 65+ then 2016.
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Buzz
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Posts: 2,186


« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2020, 07:13:45 AM »

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Buzz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,186


« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2020, 11:43:21 PM »

hahah we will see what happens! like i said i don't care about national numbers (I'm watching the early voting trends) + polls in PA, FL,AZ - but good luck in Nov Smiley

PA--Biden close to 50, there's not room for Trump to make up the same polling error he did in 2016.
FL--polling is inconsistent garbage (regardless of who's ahead), it's going to be within a point or so as it always ends up. But certainly the best chance of the three for a Trump win.
AZ--Dems significantly outperformed polling in both 2016 and 2018.

And this year isn't comparable to 2016 because, as I've been pointing out, the undecideds are significantly smaller than 2016--using PA as an example, you're less likely to have a wrong call with a 48-45 lead than you are with a 42-38 lead.
Hillary was in the high 40s/low 50s in several PA polls in 2016???
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