AZ, FL - ABC/WaPo: Trump +1%, Trump +4%

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

The race is close

This is nothing new

No, the race is not close at the moment.

Biden is toast. America wants a conservative court.

Only in your dreams.

[Crumpets]

Since we like to pick on 538, I'd like to point out that, even though the state probabilities for AZ and FL have (understandably) dipped, their topline probability is completely unchanged as a result of this poll - still 77-23 Biden.

[solidcoalition]

Wow impressive for Donald Trump

[Calthrina950]

Since we like to pick on 538, I'd like to point out that, even though the state probabilities for AZ and FL have (understandably) dipped, their topline probability is completely unchanged as a result of this poll - still 77-23 Biden.

I get the opposite impression, as most people on here seem to have a more favorable opinion of 538 than they do of RCP-even though both websites have very similar poll averages, and very reasonable predictions for the presidential election, as things stand now.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Since we like to pick on 538, I'd like to point out that, even though the state probabilities for AZ and FL have (understandably) dipped, their topline probability is completely unchanged as a result of this poll - still 77-23 Biden.

I get the opposite impression, as most people on here seem to have a more favorable opinion of 538 than they do of RCP-even though both websites have very similar poll averages, and very reasonable predictions for the presidential election, as things stand now.

I think a lot of people think highly of their poll aggregation efforts and much less highly of the non-polling aspects of their model.

FWIW, the fact that Biden's chance of winning in the model has been so stable (he's been at 76 or 77 for the last 9 days straight) does suggest the race is tightening very slightly.  If his polling lead were to stay exactly where it is, his winning probability should increase as the election gets closer.

[Devils30]

Biden up 13 in Maricopa but losing AZ???

[KaiserDave]

Halfway to 8 pages guys! Keep going!

[Calthrina950]

Since we like to pick on 538, I'd like to point out that, even though the state probabilities for AZ and FL have (understandably) dipped, their topline probability is completely unchanged as a result of this poll - still 77-23 Biden.

I get the opposite impression, as most people on here seem to have a more favorable opinion of 538 than they do of RCP-even though both websites have very similar poll averages, and very reasonable predictions for the presidential election, as things stand now.

I think a lot of people think highly of their poll aggregation efforts and much less highly of the non-polling aspects of their model.

FWIW, the fact that Biden's chance of winning in the model has been so stable (he's been at 76 or 77 for the last 9 days straight) does suggest the race is tightening very slightly.  If his polling lead were to stay exactly where it is, his winning probability should increase as the election gets closer.

I tend to think well of both 538 and RCP, as they are the best polling averages that we have at this juncture. Nobody is perfect, and my approach is that one should include all available public polls, so as to provide the fairest and most comprehensive picture of the race as possible.

[redjohn]

Halfway to 8 pages guys! Keep going!

Biden will lead in AZ and FL polls by ABC/WaPo in mid-October and the thread will get like five replies

[KaiserDave]

Halfway to 8 pages guys! Keep going!

Biden will lead in AZ and FL polls by ABC/WaPo in mid-October and the thread will get like five replies

And then Trafalgar will release a Biden +1 poll from Arizona and everyone will lose their minds.

[It’s so Joever]

Just put it in the average and shut up about it.
Really that’s what we should do for all polls.

[wbrocks67]

Since we like to pick on 538, I'd like to point out that, even though the state probabilities for AZ and FL have (understandably) dipped, their topline probability is completely unchanged as a result of this poll - still 77-23 Biden.

I get the opposite impression, as most people on here seem to have a more favorable opinion of 538 than they do of RCP-even though both websites have very similar poll averages, and very reasonable predictions for the presidential election, as things stand now.

I think a lot of people think highly of their poll aggregation efforts and much less highly of the non-polling aspects of their model.

FWIW, the fact that Biden's chance of winning in the model has been so stable (he's been at 76 or 77 for the last 9 days straight) does suggest the race is tightening very slightly.  If his polling lead were to stay exactly where it is, his winning probability should increase as the election gets closer.

and it has though. He was down to like 67% a few weeks ago.

[ProgressiveModerate]

2 polls suggests a dead heat race after months if great polls for Biden: ThE PoLlS aRe TightEninG BiDEn is DoomeD!

Months of great polling for Biden: The POlLs ArE FaKE TrUMP StIll HAs a HIGh ChAnce Of WinnINg

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Of course the polls reaffirming Tossup Georgia barely get 1-2 pages each of discussion while this one practically explodes in 6 hours

[Sbane]

Iowa is tied but Trump is ahead in AZ? I just don't buy that. We shall see if future polls confirm these results or not.

When has polling ever understated Republican strength in IA and Democratic strength in AZ?

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/ia/iowa_romney_vs_obama-1922.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/az/arizona_romney_vs_obama-1757.html

In any case, my point here was that these polls just don't fit with the overall picture we are getting from other state and national polling. That doesn't necessarily mean they are wrong. We will see if we see other polls show a tighter race. IIRC, ABC/Washington Post was the first to detect a tightening towards Trump in 2016 and basically nailed the final margin.

[Arkansas Yankee]

After Truman surprised Dewey in 1948 the GOP picked a really likable war hero as its candidate in 1952

After the Trump surprise of 2016 the Democrats pick a 77 year old had not been making headway in his campaign to win this The Democrat nomination and and sinking into dementia as it nominee.
Do you see the disconnect with logical expectations.

Do you not understand that pollsters might have a problem determining turn out.

I do understand that there may be enough hate and disgust with Trump to possibly defeat Him But do you not understand that there is a possibility you will not get the turnout to defeat him.  Do you not understand some who say they will vote for him might not turn out.

[Brittain33]

After Truman surprised Dewey in 1948 the GOP picked a really likable war hero as its candidate in 1952

After the Trump surprise of 2016 the Democrats pick a 77 year old had not been making headway in his campaign to win this The Democrat nomination and and sinking into dementia as it nominee.
Do you see the disconnect with logical expectations.

Do you not understand that pollsters might have a problem determining turn out.

I do understand that there may be enough hate and disgust with Trump to possibly defeat Him But do you not understand that there is a possibility you will not get the turnout to defeat him.  Do you not understand some who say they will vote for him might not turn out.

Nothing personal, but can I ask why you don't use question marks?

[GeneralMacArthur]

Hey if you know of any "really likable war heroes" who want to run for the Democratic Party's nomination, let me know.  We tried Wesley Clark in 2004 and he sucked.

I think I posted on here before that I would love to see Bill McRaven get involved.

Seth Moulton is as legit as they come, but he's simply too modest to want to be a "war hero candidate."

We also had Joe Sestak, the highest-ranking military officer ever elected to Congress.  Nobody cared.

[republican1993]

The race is close

This is nothing new

No, the race is not close at the moment.

Biden is toast. America wants a conservative court.

Only in your dreams.

ugh.. new york liberals always delusional.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

The race is close

This is nothing new

No, the race is not close at the moment.

Biden is toast. America wants a conservative court.

Only in your dreams.

ugh.. new york liberals always delusional.

Womp womp. The truth hurts.

[republican1993]

hahah we will see what happens! like i said i don't care about national numbers (I'm watching the early voting trends) + polls in PA, FL,AZ - but good luck in Nov

[Hammy]

hahah we will see what happens! like i said i don't care about national numbers (I'm watching the early voting trends) + polls in PA, FL,AZ - but good luck in Nov

PA--Biden close to 50, there's not room for Trump to make up the same polling error he did in 2016.
FL--polling is inconsistent garbage (regardless of who's ahead), it's going to be within a point or so as it always ends up. But certainly the best chance of the three for a Trump win.
AZ--Dems significantly outperformed polling in both 2016 and 2018.

And this year isn't comparable to 2016 because, as I've been pointing out, the undecideds are significantly smaller than 2016--using PA as an example, you're less likely to have a wrong call with a 48-45 lead than you are with a 42-38 lead.

[republican1993]

i know i'm just hoping for the best.

[Buzz]

hahah we will see what happens! like i said i don't care about national numbers (I'm watching the early voting trends) + polls in PA, FL,AZ - but good luck in Nov

PA--Biden close to 50, there's not room for Trump to make up the same polling error he did in 2016.
FL--polling is inconsistent garbage (regardless of who's ahead), it's going to be within a point or so as it always ends up. But certainly the best chance of the three for a Trump win.
AZ--Dems significantly outperformed polling in both 2016 and 2018.

And this year isn't comparable to 2016 because, as I've been pointing out, the undecideds are significantly smaller than 2016--using PA as an example, you're less likely to have a wrong call with a 48-45 lead than you are with a 42-38 lead.

Hillary was in the high 40s/low 50s in several PA polls in 2016???

[Hammy]

hahah we will see what happens! like i said i don't care about national numbers (I'm watching the early voting trends) + polls in PA, FL,AZ - but good luck in Nov

PA--Biden close to 50, there's not room for Trump to make up the same polling error he did in 2016.
FL--polling is inconsistent garbage (regardless of who's ahead), it's going to be within a point or so as it always ends up. But certainly the best chance of the three for a Trump win.
AZ--Dems significantly outperformed polling in both 2016 and 2018.

And this year isn't comparable to 2016 because, as I've been pointing out, the undecideds are significantly smaller than 2016--using PA as an example, you're less likely to have a wrong call with a 48-45 lead than you are with a 42-38 lead.

Hillary was in the high 40s/low 50s in several PA polls in 2016???

I was in a bit of a hurry and was less clear than I intended in that last bit.

My point is that she wasn't that high--Biden's base percentage is far above Hillary's number, as is Trump's from his 2016 number--thus making the undecideds smaller and leaving less room for the polls to be off as there was in 2016.

Hillary was running in the low 40s at the moment with Trump in the high 30s--large amount of room for the polls to be wrong.