AZ, FL - ABC/WaPo: Trump +1%, Trump +4%

[wbrocks67]

No, you didn't say a word for those Change polls. No unskewing, no to looking in samples because you like those results.

I literally haven't commented on Change at all. I just reported the results. Stop. I've already made it clear my feelings on Change.

[Calthrina950]

This thread will certainly contain measured responses.

That is true. Every time I come to a polling thread, I can always rely on the usual suspects to downplay or discredit any polls which are not favorable to Biden, and for the usual suspects to hype up or boast about polls that have Biden up by considerable margins-margins that are well beyond the realm of plausibility (such as Trump only leading by a few points in Arkansas). It's an irritating experience.

[Rand]

Media-manipulated tightening right before the debates.

We know how it works.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden will remind how Trump passed unaffordable tax cuts for the rich, while Trump wants to cut entitlements like Obamacare and unemployment insurance and McConnell let 1200 stimulus checks expire in Aug, while Trump went on his Convention tour with no natl mandate on mask

[Bootes Void]

This thread will certainly contain measured responses.

That is true. Every time I come to a polling thread, I can always rely on the usual suspects to downplay or discredit any polls which are not favorable to Biden, and for the usual suspects to hype up or boast about polls that have Biden up by considerable margins-margins that are well beyond the realm of plausibility (such as Trump only leading by a few points in Arkansas). It's an irritating experience.

Criticizing the poll doesn't mean you are discrediting it

[Calthrina950]

This thread will certainly contain measured responses.

That is true. Every time I come to a polling thread, I can always rely on the usual suspects to downplay or discredit any polls which are not favorable to Biden, and for the usual suspects to hype up or boast about polls that have Biden up by considerable margins-margins that are well beyond the realm of plausibility (such as Trump only leading by a few points in Arkansas). It's an irritating experience.

Criticizing the poll doesn't mean you are discrediting it

Not necessarily, but the "criticisms" are always oriented around the claims that a poll is too "Republican-friendly", that it is "undersampling" Democratic voters, or that the crosstabs are too "wacky", and skewed in the favor of Trump and Republicans. Now, I am certainly skeptical of polls which show Trump getting 20% of the black vote (which is unrealistic at this juncture), but I don't extend this out and say that "any polls which are even slightly favorable for Trump are junk and need to be tossed." And we have been seeing growing evidence that Trump has gained some support among minority voters (to my personal astonishment); Biden has compensated for this by cutting deeply into the white vote.

[Gass3268]

Just saw that this AZ poll has Biden up 13 points in Maricopa County. It's mathematically impossible for him to Maricopa County by that margin and lose the state.

[DrScholl]

This certainly doesn't fit with other recent polling we've seen. These are clear outliers.

[redjohn]

Okay polls for Trump. Winning FL by that comfortable of a margin (FL-wise) would mean a very possible election victory. Being that close in AZ, on the other hand, is not good. He's the underdog in WI+MI+PA, he can't afford to lose AZ in that close of a race.

[Ferguson97]

Throw it into the average.

[WD]

lmao ok.

[Horus]

Just saw that this AZ poll has Biden up 13 points in Maricopa County. It's mathematically impossible for him to Maricopa County by that margin and lose the state.

Not if he does much better with rural Hispanics and the Native vote which is certainly possible.

[Brittain33]

This is the same pollster which had Biden +16 in Minnesota.

Either you believe both sets of polls, or you believe both are equally capable of being outliers.

I’ll go with “throw them all in the average” since it’s a reputable pollster and hope that they’re both outliers or the LV screen is making assumptions that I hope are not true.

[Brittain33]

Just saw that this AZ poll has Biden up 13 points in Maricopa County. It's mathematically impossible for him to Maricopa County by that margin and lose the state.

Not if he does much better with rural Hispanics and the Native vote which is certainly possible.

The numbers available with rural Hispanics and the Native vote are an order of magnitude less than what’s needed to overcome a 13 point lead in Maricopa.

[LimoLiberal]

"I think I've seen this film before/And I didn't like the ending"
 
- Taylor Swift

[lfromnj]

579 as a sample size for Arizona and 613 for Florida?!

Throw this in the garbage disposal.

Uh what? That seems pretty fine for a sample size. Maybe Florida could have gone to 700 or so but Arizona seems fine.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Just saw that this AZ poll has Biden up 13 points in Maricopa County. It's mathematically impossible for him to Maricopa County by that margin and lose the state.

Not if he does much better with rural Hispanics and the Native vote which is certainly possible.

The numbers available with rural Hispanics and the Native vote are an order of magnitude less than what’s needed to overcome a 13 point lead in Maricopa.

And AZ w/o Maricopa is about dead even.

[n1240]

Definitely best polls for Trump in months, wouldn't panic unless the trend is consistent of course. I think this is the first time he's lead an Arizona poll in a very long time

579 as a sample size for Arizona and 613 for Florida?!

Throw this in the garbage disposal.

Uh what? That seems pretty fine for a sample size. Maybe Florida could have gone to 700 or so but Arizona seems fine.

Yeah these are perfectly fine, unless it's something like 200-300 range or less then it's probably not worth freaking out over sample size. 600 or 700 wouldn't really make a big difference in terms of reducing sample error (probably like .3% reduction in MOE).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Chill. These are obvious outliers.

[wbrocks67]

Chill. These are obvious outliers.

So fast do people forget that we just got another A+ poll barely a week ago with Biden +9 in AZ.

[Webnicz]

Trump is not “tied/close” in Pima County as the poll states, the fact that it implies Maricopa is bluer than Pima which has been a democratic stronghold for decades is baffling

[AZDem]

Just saw that this AZ poll has Biden up 13 points in Maricopa County. It's mathematically impossible for him to Maricopa County by that margin and lose the state.

Yeah. That makes no sense whatsoever! If Biden is winning Maricopa by 13, he's winning AZ easily.
That also means he's winning at least Pima (Tucson), Coconino (Flagstaff), and Navajo counties by even bigger margins! Those counties made up around 80% of the total votes cast in 2016. If this is truly happening, there's no way the other counties are going to make up the difference with those margins.

Also, wining Maricopa by +13 means there's the possibility that perhaps Yuma county is also flipping as it was only +1 Trump in 2016.

There's no way that Trump is up by 1 with those numbers! It's impossible.

[Suburbia]

The race is close

This is nothing new

[Red Wall]

Biden is toast. America wants a conservative court.

[Alben Barkley]

Chill. These are obvious outliers.

So fast do people forget that we just got another A+ poll barely a week ago with Biden +9 in AZ.

Yep. If Biden’s actually ahead by say 5, Trump +1 and Biden +9 would both be within the expected range of results. People are just so used to Biden leading EVERYTHING that they forget narrow Trump leads can be outliers without meaning Trump is actually ahead now.