RI Senate Primary: ARG says Chafee +9

[© tweed]

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

On the front page...

Chafee 48% Laffey 39% of "likely primary voters"
Chafee 46% Laffey 42% of "Republicans"
Chafee 51% Laffey 35% of "Independents"

[Keystone Phil]

I'll be happy as long as Laffey gives Chafee a good run. I'm not that enthusiastic about Laffey anymore because, after watching some of the videos on his site, he seems to be big with the class warfare tactic. I'd still like him in the Senate instead of Chafee but that's not the point now. Let's give Linc a good scare and move on.

[Alcon]

I wonder how many independents will actually be voting in the Republican primary.  I imagine some just want to take the poll, and others say they will vote but don't bother.

I am not impressed with these numbers.  Chafee should be crushing Laffey (even though they both have dumb names).

[Gabu]

How do they define "likely primary voters"?

[Sam Spade]

What is ARG's track record in Rhode Island?

[sethm0]

 Questions like how many people and which people will vote in this primary are a source of great controversy among us in Rhode Island.

 I personally believe that the vast majority of voters in the primary will be Republican voters. Independents are allowed to vote in the primary, but never really have. At most, I think Independents will make up 20-30% of the primary electorate.

 This seems to work in Laffey's favor, but be careful: I still think Chafee will win, narrowly, among Republican voters. I think Republicans will vote for Chafee in part out of a desire to keep the Senate, in part out of habit and in part because some of them are moderate like he is.
 
 Basically I see Chafee winning Republicans narrowly, independnets a little more comfortable and the overall primary somewhere in the high 50s.

 Laffey is talented and well-funded though so an upset is not out of the question, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.