Puerto Rico statehood referendum 2020

[7,052,770]

I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

And I don't want to hear about how people boycotted the election. If they didn't want PR to become a state, they should have voted

Socialist avatar. I'd say 90% of self-identified socialists in PR will boycott.

Well that's their choice, but they can't complain if statehood wins 52-48 and Puerto Rico is electing Senators and Representatives in Feburary.

They can absolutely complain that a nonbinding referendum with no alternative to statehood (with a 52-48 vote!) is taken by their colonial government as an opportunity to settle a cenrury long debate about PR's status. Do you really think that won't piss people off? And for all your fingerwagging about boycotts, it's worked for the last few referendums, so it's not like it's an illogical decision.

There is an alternative. Either become a state or don't. Majority wins. In every election, the loser is pissed off, especially the people who supported the loser but for whatever reason failed to cast a vote that may have flipped the result.

In fairness, I think the Puerto Rico statehood question should be tabled for at least 15 years if No wins. It shouldn't be a "Keep voting until they decide to be a state" kind of thing.

[AndyHogan14]

I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

And I don't want to hear about how people boycotted the election. If they didn't want PR to become a state, they should have voted

Socialist avatar. I'd say 90% of self-identified socialists in PR will boycott.

Well that's their choice, but they can't complain if statehood wins 52-48 and Puerto Rico is electing Senators and Representatives in Feburary.

They can absolutely complain that a nonbinding referendum with no alternative to statehood (with a 52-48 vote!) is taken by their colonial government as an opportunity to settle a cenrury long debate about PR's status. Do you really think that won't piss people off? And for all your fingerwagging about boycotts, it's worked for the last few referendums, so it's not like it's an illogical decision.

If they don't like the statehood option, then vote no! That is the alternative, it's as simple as that.

At this point, if PR were to vote no, then I would recommend that the US begin the transition towards ending American sovereignty over the island. No more of this half-in garbage, you are either in or out. Period.

[Agonized-Statism]

How come this isn't getting more media attention? This is just as big as the election itself.

[MaxQue]

I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

And I don't want to hear about how people boycotted the election. If they didn't want PR to become a state, they should have voted

Socialist avatar. I'd say 90% of self-identified socialists in PR will boycott.

Well that's their choice, but they can't complain if statehood wins 52-48 and Puerto Rico is electing Senators and Representatives in Feburary.

They can absolutely complain that a nonbinding referendum with no alternative to statehood (with a 52-48 vote!) is taken by their colonial government as an opportunity to settle a cenrury long debate about PR's status. Do you really think that won't piss people off? And for all your fingerwagging about boycotts, it's worked for the last few referendums, so it's not like it's an illogical decision.

That's a stupid point. It's like if you're eating in a restaurant, they ask you if you want salad and you get upset they didn't offer rice instead.

Rice was offered for multiple years, it got removed from the menu due to lack of demand.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

And I don't want to hear about how people boycotted the election. If they didn't want PR to become a state, they should have voted

Socialist avatar. I'd say 90% of self-identified socialists in PR will boycott.

Well that's their choice, but they can't complain if statehood wins 52-48 and Puerto Rico is electing Senators and Representatives in Feburary.

They can absolutely complain that a nonbinding referendum with no alternative to statehood (with a 52-48 vote!) is taken by their colonial government as an opportunity to settle a cenrury long debate about PR's status. Do you really think that won't piss people off? And for all your fingerwagging about boycotts, it's worked for the last few referendums, so it's not like it's an illogical decision.

Weirdly enough, it's not the independence/free association option that's off the table, it's the option to maintain the current commonwealth status. So once again, the pro-Statehood NPP is stacking the deck. Given previous referenda, it's pretty clear that the only two politically viable options are Statehood or continuation of the Commonwealth. Any referendum that's going to enjoy wide acceptance both inside and outside Puerto Rico should be a straight out choice between the two options, but yet once again, the NPP has refused that option. It's almost as if they think the people of Puerto Rico will vote against Statehood if it's done that way.

[Former President tack50]

The issue with statehood really is that it is permanent. So there should be a huge consensus before actually pulling the trigger.

And I do not think a 51-49 style result is enough

[StateBoiler]

How come this isn't getting more media attention? This is just as big as the election itself.

Because no one cares about Puerto Rico. It's not anti-Puerto Rican, it's just how elections work. Imagine how all your people running for state legislature or county council that can't get anyone to give a damn feel.

There are other aspects of this that while it's not going to play any role in statehood talk about the difficulty of adjustment that's going to occur. A girl from Puerto Rico just came to my wife's middle school. She was an 8th grader but could hardly speak English. Based on equivalency of education, she should be an 8th grader here. Since she was on the young end of 8th graders anyway, they decided to put her in 7th grade. English is not the official language of this country but it has always been the de facto functional language, so how are educational requirements going to work and diplomas from there be looked at on the mainland? The economic aspects of the island are easy to see - it's going to join the list of net takers, which means less goes back to every other state in the union. Low on the priority list, but all sports programs on the island will decline mightily because there's going to be no more Puerto Rico in the Olympics. I went to a men's college volleyball (yes, it does exist) game a couple years ago and the local college's team had two Puerto Rican starters. Probably because they still play the game there for Olympic reasons vs. it getting cut for Title IX. Team Puerto Rico in the World Baseball Classic will be dead which is going to disappoint every Puerto Rican in the majors when that comes around, they'll become no different than Californians or Texans. That point is probably one that's going to hit at self-identified Puerto Ricans the most. Puerto Rican at that point no longer becomes an identity, it becomes a place of residence. So if you're a Puerto Rican that lives in New York, you're no longer a Puerto Rican for the same reason a Californian living in New York is no longer a Californian. But if I moved to San Juan, I'd become Puerto Rican.

Everything I state was probably true for when territories joined the country in the past. Imagine getting Hawaiian education up to snuff back then was a task.

[warandwar]

I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

And I don't want to hear about how people boycotted the election. If they didn't want PR to become a state, they should have voted

Socialist avatar. I'd say 90% of self-identified socialists in PR will boycott.

Well that's their choice, but they can't complain if statehood wins 52-48 and Puerto Rico is electing Senators and Representatives in Feburary.

They can absolutely complain that a nonbinding referendum with no alternative to statehood (with a 52-48 vote!) is taken by their colonial government as an opportunity to settle a cenrury long debate about PR's status. Do you really think that won't piss people off? And for all your fingerwagging about boycotts, it's worked for the last few referendums, so it's not like it's an illogical decision.

Weirdly enough, it's not the independence/free association option that's off the table, it's the option to maintain the current commonwealth status. So once again, the pro-Statehood NPP is stacking the deck. Given previous referenda, it's pretty clear that the only two politically viable options are Statehood or continuation of the Commonwealth. Any referendum that's going to enjoy wide acceptance both inside and outside Puerto Rico should be a straight out choice between the two options, but yet once again, the NPP has refused that option. It's almost as if they think the people of Puerto Rico will vote against Statehood if it's done that way.

Yes, precisely. Independence is not popular in PR currently. The commonwealth status is supported (or at least viewed as preferable to statehood) by a plurality of people, which is what every one of the NPP's referendums have shown.

Another wrinkle is that mainland Puerto Ricans tend to be more anti-statehood than those on the island. I have a hard time seeing statehood passed without Nydia Velasquez's support and i doubt she would support it after a hypothetical 50%+1 majority from this referendum.

[GALeftist]

I'm sort of of the opinion that it's good that current commonwealth status isn't on the ballot. Commonwealth status is basically a glorified colony, so why should it be an option? Most colonial nations were either set free without a referendum or became an integral part of the state after a successful referendum. If I were in Puerto Rico, I'd probably vote for independence, but if they would rather be a state than independent then that's all there is to it.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pasquines have polled PR statehood: https://pasquines.us/2020/10/30/puerto-rico-poised-to-say-yes-to-statehood-in-plebiscite/

October 3-27
Of adults (~249)

YES 70%
NO 30%

Approval voting version (allows respondents to select all of the options they approve of)

Statehood 73%
Independence 28%
Independence with a free association pact 22%
Current territorial status 4%
None of the above 1%
Undecided 2%

[7,052,770]

So it looks like PR is either impossible to poll, or some or all of the pollsters are blatantly pushing their agenda. We'll find out soon.

I saw on Twitter where Rubio is encouraging a Yes vote, so maybe we see Republicans admit PR in December to try to make a play for their votes? If it's happening anyway, you might as well try to claim credit for it.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Color me extremely skeptical. The only way that these poll numbers make any sort of logical sense is if people mistakenly think Statehood is going to see Puerto Rico's existing debt be assumed by the Federal government.  Even H. R. 4901 is quite explicit that the State will inherit the Commonwealth's debts as has been the custom when territories have been admitted as States.

If anything, Statehood will make Puerto Rico's debt crisis worse.  As a territory, the interest on Puerto Rican debt is exempt from Federal, State, and local income taxes, but as a State, it will only be exempt from Federal income tax.  That tax exemption is part of what made Puerto Rican debt attractive to many investors and helped encourage the Puerto Rican government to take on too much debt.

I realize PROMESA is unpopular in Puerto Rico, but Statehood won't make the situation that made it necessary go away.  Once debt is back to manageable levels, Statehood would hopefully help keep the island from falling back into a debt trap, as financiers would have less reason to encourage the island to take on debt.

If Puerto Ricans are looking for a quick fix to their island's debt crisis by a change in their relationship with the U.S., then independence (with or without a free association compact) would be a much better option than Statehood, tho it would come with other drawbacks.

[Samof94]

How would this be different than Quebec???

[Storr]

CNN published an article about the referendum.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/31/politics/puerto-rico-2020-statehood-vote/index.html

A quote that I particularly enjoyed:

""You know how I see the relationship between Puerto Rico and the United States?" said Luis Martinez-Fernandez, a history professor at the University of Central Florida. "It's a couple and they've been dating for over a century. But they're not married and neither side is convinced strongly enough they want that marriage.""

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Another poll of the statehood referendum: https://www.elnuevodia.com/noticias/politica/notas/cox-alomar-asegura-que-el-50-a-favor-del-si-en-la-encuesta-es-un-escenario-precario-para-el-movimiento-estadista/

The Research Office/El Nuevo Dia
Oct 27-30
1000 registered voters
MoE: 3%

Yes 50%
No 43%
Not voting 3%
Not sure 4%

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The last 4 polls are +7, +1, -1, and +40. I think we can toss the +40.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Radio Isla/Jorge Benitez poll:

https://www.telemundopr.com/noticias/puerto-rico/https-www-telemundopr-com-noticias-puerto-rico-voto-2020-la-encuesta-final-elecciones-2020-puerto-rico-2143435-2/2143435/

Oct 23-30
1010 likely voters
MoE: 2.5%

NO +1 pre-rounding

No 51%
Yes 50%

[Figueira]

So if Yes does win, is there any argunent the anti-statehood camp could put forward to Congress on why the referendum is illegitimate?

[warandwar]

So if Yes does win, is there any argunent the anti-statehood camp could put forward to Congress on why the referendum is illegitimate?

Yes, quite easily. See the CNN article above. But i think more importantly - Velasquez and AOC just came out with their own proposal - essentially MVC's. Hard to see statehood happening without Velasquez in favor.

[Rep Jessica]

Why not become a state? They'd get two senators and reps in the house. They'd have real power.

They don't have much say at this moment so if they vote no I hope they go for independence.

[Figueira]

So if Yes does win, is there any argunent the anti-statehood camp could put forward to Congress on why the referendum is illegitimate?

Yes, quite easily. See the CNN article above. But i think more importantly - Velasquez and AOC just came out with their own proposal - essentially MVC's. Hard to see statehood happening without Velasquez in favor.

Not really seeing that in the article. A lot of arguments for why people should vote No on statehood, but I don't see any arguments for why Congress shouldn't respect a Yes vote (other than Republicans getting in the way).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/02/930323316/in-puerto-rico-young-voters-are-trying-to-shake-up-traditional-party-politics

Looks like Puerto Ricans are getting tired of the endless Statehood debate as a distraction from getting done things that matter for local governance. Which ironically may explain support for Statehood as a way to end the debate once and for all.

[Green Line]

No matter what happens, pray that Jenniffer Gonzalez-Colon is reelected.

[RI]

So when are we getting some results?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

DFP seemed to poll every PR race on the ballot (and some that weren't like the presidential contest) but not the referendum.