Puerto Rico statehood referendum 2020

[Samof94]

I think the swinginess of PR is overrated tbqh. Puerto Ricans on the mainland are reliable Democratic votes, and I can't really envision the current GOP making a serious play for Hispanic votes in the way that they would need to to carry Puerto Rico.

The island literally speaks Spanish, how are MAGA voters going to handle that?

[beaver2.0]

I really hope they get to be the 51st state.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Did they not poll statehood?

They've just released the numbers for that: https://www.elvocero.com/politica/favorecen-el-voto-por-la-estadidad/article_52a56dee-0eb0-11eb-bc51-af7b850d1a3a.html

September 21 - October 6
2041 adults
MoE: 2%

Yes 42%
No 27%
Would not vote 14%
Not sure 17%

[Senator Incitatus]

I think the swinginess of PR is overrated tbqh. Puerto Ricans on the mainland are reliable Democratic votes, and I can't really envision the current GOP making a serious play for Hispanic votes in the way that they would need to to carry Puerto Rico.

The island literally speaks Spanish, how are MAGA voters going to handle that?

Read Wittgenstein.

[Former President tack50]

I am still surprised that despite all the scandals this term, the pro-statehood PNP is still the overwhelming favourite to win the elections

I guess PR has polarized itself mostly/exclusively on statehood lines? (much like how Scotland for instance has polarized itself on independence and little else matters)

[7,052,770]

Did they not poll statehood?

They've just released the numbers for that: https://www.elvocero.com/politica/favorecen-el-voto-por-la-estadidad/article_52a56dee-0eb0-11eb-bc51-af7b850d1a3a.html

September 21 - October 6
2041 adults
MoE: 2%

Yes 42%
No 27%
Would not vote 14%
Not sure 17%

[Torrain]

I am still surprised that despite all the scandals this term, the pro-statehood PNP is still the overwhelming favourite to win the elections

I guess PR has polarized itself mostly/exclusively on statehood lines? (much like how Scotland for instance has polarized itself on independence and little else matters)

Ugh, don't get me started. If only the pro-remain factor wasn't split three ways, while the SNP routinely win elections based on a consolidated pro-independence vote...

If nothing else, this should hopefully put to bed the independence issue in PR for now. Will be interesting to see whether the two major US parties end up dominating in PR in the future, or they preserve their existing political structure.

[Former President tack50]

I am still surprised that despite all the scandals this term, the pro-statehood PNP is still the overwhelming favourite to win the elections

I guess PR has polarized itself mostly/exclusively on statehood lines? (much like how Scotland for instance has polarized itself on independence and little else matters)

Ugh, don't get me started. If only the pro-remain factor wasn't split three ways, while the SNP routinely win elections based on a consolidated pro-independence vote...

If nothing else, this should hopefully put to bed the independence issue in PR for now. Will be interesting to see whether the two major US parties end up dominating in PR in the future, or they preserve their existing political structure.

I mean, if anything I am somewhat surprised there is no "right wing pro-independence party". I know the SNP has a history of being a rather centrist party but nowadays they seem as left wing as Labour?

Like comparing Scotland to Catalonia/Basque Country here; the latter 2 have plenty of competition on the pro-independence/nationalist side; generally between one very left wing party and a centre to centre-right party (although JxCat is essencially a Puigdemont cult now I guess)

[politicallefty]

Did they not poll statehood?

They've just released the numbers for that: https://www.elvocero.com/politica/favorecen-el-voto-por-la-estadidad/article_52a56dee-0eb0-11eb-bc51-af7b850d1a3a.html

September 21 - October 6
2041 adults
MoE: 2%

Yes 42%
No 27%
Would not vote 14%
Not sure 17%

Or this:



I actually wouldn't mind seeing a more radical redesign for the US flag. I'm not talking about removing or adding anything (apart from adding stars for states), but the stars and stripes could be reconfigured.

[Torrain]

I am still surprised that despite all the scandals this term, the pro-statehood PNP is still the overwhelming favourite to win the elections

I guess PR has polarized itself mostly/exclusively on statehood lines? (much like how Scotland for instance has polarized itself on independence and little else matters)

Ugh, don't get me started. If only the pro-remain factor wasn't split three ways, while the SNP routinely win elections based on a consolidated pro-independence vote...

If nothing else, this should hopefully put to bed the independence issue in PR for now. Will be interesting to see whether the two major US parties end up dominating in PR in the future, or they preserve their existing political structure.

I mean, if anything I am somewhat surprised there is no "right wing pro-independence party". I know the SNP has a history of being a rather centrist party but nowadays they seem as left wing as Labour?

Like comparing Scotland to Catalonia/Basque Country here; the latter 2 have plenty of competition on the pro-independence/nationalist side; generally between one very left wing party and a centre to centre-right party (although JxCat is essencially a Puigdemont cult now I guess)

Year, it's a weird political dynamic - the only pro-independence parties are the kinda-left SNP, and the very left Greens.

I think the thing is, that the right is just too weak in Scotland to support that kind of action. The Scottish Conservatives are more moderate (especially on social issues) than the national party, and even then, they seem to have a firm ceiling of 28%.

I think Scotland's post-Thatcher political environment is still so tied up in past grievances that the entire country is stuck in a tiny Overton window, far to the left of most countries.  That lack of acceptance of policies outside of a tiny window seems to make it hard to actually draw a contrast on policy, which then gives the SNP more time to shout about their favourite subject, and try to turn every election into a mini-referendum.

I'm frankly exhausted with it all. The SNP have an absolute dearth of political talent, and I fear that if the current situation continues, we're headed for Northern Ireland levels of dysfunction (I'm talking Stormont politics in 2020, which are their own form of partisan madness, not the Troubles)

Sorry if that was a little ranty. Things aren't great up here just now, and I'm not optimistic about the next decade here.

[7,052,770]

Did they not poll statehood?

They've just released the numbers for that: https://www.elvocero.com/politica/favorecen-el-voto-por-la-estadidad/article_52a56dee-0eb0-11eb-bc51-af7b850d1a3a.html

September 21 - October 6
2041 adults
MoE: 2%

Yes 42%
No 27%
Would not vote 14%
Not sure 17%

Or this:



I actually wouldn't mind seeing a more radical redesign for the US flag. I'm not talking about removing or adding anything (apart from adding stars for states), but the stars and stripes could be reconfigured.

All for it. And let's not forget our countrymen living in the Marianas.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Radio Island/Jorge Benitez poll: https://radioisla.tv/jennifer-gonzalez-domina-la-contienda-a-la-comisaria-residente/

October 12-17
676 registered voters
MoE: 3.16%

Yes 43%
No 42%
Undecided 18%

[GALeftist]

Radio Island/Jorge Benitez poll: https://radioisla.tv/jennifer-gonzalez-domina-la-contienda-a-la-comisaria-residente/

October 12-17
676 likely voters (listed as "potential voters", but their last sample was treated as likely voters by 538)
MoE: 3.16%

Yes 43%
No 42%
Undecided 18%

Closest poll I've seen in a while, wow.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Why are so many people undecided in every poll of this?  Does anyone have a sense of what the campaigns for each side look like?

Would it make sense for Democrats to throw a bunch of money into the Yes campaign?

[Farmlands]

Radio Island/Jorge Benitez poll: https://radioisla.tv/jennifer-gonzalez-domina-la-contienda-a-la-comisaria-residente/

October 12-17
676 registered voters
MoE: 3.16%

Yes 43%
No 42%
Undecided 18%

Seems that for all the talk of Puerto Rico being a modern day colony, a sizable amount of residents on the ground don't actually want to be a US state either. I'm okay with either choice, but I truly believe independence is better for them.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

And I don't want to hear about how people boycotted the election. If they didn't want PR to become a state, they should have voted

[7,052,770]

I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

And I don't want to hear about how people boycotted the election. If they didn't want PR to become a state, they should have voted

Agree. In developed countries you don't get to boycott an election and have it not count.

[7,052,770]

I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

Agreed. I also expect a lot of Republicans, including Rubio, Scott, and Murkowski, to vote for it, so it's not like it's going to be some one-sided power grab. And they might elect Republicans to Congress anyway, and that's OK too.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why are so many people undecided in every poll of this? 

There are quite a few people who don't have any strong preference between Statehood and Commonwealth and who are uncertain what impact, if any, it would have on them.

[warandwar]

I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

And I don't want to hear about how people boycotted the election. If they didn't want PR to become a state, they should have voted

Socialist avatar. I'd say 90% of self-identified socialists in PR will boycott.

[7,052,770]

I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

And I don't want to hear about how people boycotted the election. If they didn't want PR to become a state, they should have voted

Socialist avatar. I'd say 90% of self-identified socialists in PR will boycott.

Well that's their choice, but they can't complain if statehood wins 52-48 and Puerto Rico is electing Senators and Representatives in Feburary.

[beaver2.0]

So it appears the PR shadow congressional delegation is balanced party-wise, so it'll be interesting to see that until fresh elections are held.

[warandwar]

I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

And I don't want to hear about how people boycotted the election. If they didn't want PR to become a state, they should have voted

Socialist avatar. I'd say 90% of self-identified socialists in PR will boycott.

Well that's their choice, but they can't complain if statehood wins 52-48 and Puerto Rico is electing Senators and Representatives in Feburary.

They can absolutely complain that a nonbinding referendum with no alternative to statehood (with a 52-48 vote!) is taken by their colonial government as an opportunity to settle a cenrury long debate about PR's status. Do you really think that won't piss people off? And for all your fingerwagging about boycotts, it's worked for the last few referendums, so it's not like it's an illogical decision.

[GlobeSoc]

I don’t care how narrow the margin is on the statehood vote. Any yes vote whatsoever should result in a Democratic trifecta giving them statehood. Elections have consequences.

And I don't want to hear about how people boycotted the election. If they didn't want PR to become a state, they should have voted

Socialist avatar. I'd say 90% of self-identified socialists in PR will boycott.

Well that's their choice, but they can't complain if statehood wins 52-48 and Puerto Rico is electing Senators and Representatives in Feburary.

They can absolutely complain that a nonbinding referendum with no alternative to statehood (with a 52-48 vote!) is taken by their colonial government as an opportunity to settle a cenrury long debate about PR's status. Do you really think that won't piss people off? And for all your fingerwagging about boycotts, it's worked for the last few referendums, so it's not like it's an illogical decision.

i tend to the take of giving puerto rico a binary independence-statehood referendum, and then immediately executing the result regardless of how close it is. commonwealth status is an arrangement not particularly conducive to good and representative governance, plus its colonial connotations aren't good. on the take of "just give puerto rico independence", i'm not reflexively opposed but...if they end up supporting statehood over independence that's their choice right? at a certain point that take's logical extreme effectively means pulling a malaysia for woke reasons