Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +5 in MI, tied in NC
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  Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +5 in MI, tied in NC		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Reuters/Ipsos: Biden +5 in MI, tied in NC  (Read 1719 times)
VAR
VARepublican
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« on: September 22, 2020, 02:13:53 PM »
« edited: September 22, 2020, 02:23:12 PM by VARepublican »
MI (637 LV, MoE: 4.4%)
Biden 49%
Trump 44%

SEN: Peters 49-43 (+6)
GCB: D 47-43 (+4)

Trump approval: 42/54 (-12)

Favorabilities:
Trump 44/56 (-12)
Biden 53/47 (+6)
Harris 53/47 (+6)
Pence 48/52 (-4)

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-09/topline_reuters_michigan_state_poll_w1_09_22_2020.pdf

NC (586 LV, MoE: 4.6%)
Biden 47%
Trump 47%

SEN: Cunningham 48-44 (+4)
GCB: D 48-47 (+1)

Trump approval: 44/52 (-8)

Favorabilities:
Trump 47/53 (-6)
Biden 56/44 (+12)
Harris 52/48 (+4)
Pence 51/49 (+2)

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2020-09/topline_reuters_north_carolina_state_poll_w1_09_22_2020.pdf
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kireev
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« Reply #1 on: September 22, 2020, 02:26:26 PM »
Just based on favorabilities it's pretty clear that Biden has way more room to grow than Trump.
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bilaps
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« Reply #2 on: September 22, 2020, 02:29:06 PM »
Another +5 in MI with these kind of approval. Polling is weird
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Person Man
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« Reply #3 on: September 22, 2020, 02:36:43 PM »
It appears that undecideds would lean Biden.
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republican1993
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« Reply #4 on: September 22, 2020, 02:41:53 PM »
+5 biden for a state that is prob least favorable to trump isn't too bad at this moment.. north carolina will be neck and neck til the end i'm mostly watching the early voting trends to make an assumption there if reps can catch dems.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #5 on: September 22, 2020, 03:05:13 PM »
The second Reuters/Ipsos state poll.  They had Biden +3 in PA and now have him +5 in MI.  Given their lack of a track record for state races, the only really useful data point is that Biden is two points lower in PA than he is in MI.  Assuming MI doesn't end up being a 2-point race on election night, should be good news for Biden.  And NC 5 points behind MI is also good for him.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2020, 03:05:38 PM »
Quote from: kireev on September 22, 2020, 02:26:26 PM
Just based on favorabilities it's pretty clear that Biden has way more room to grow than Trump.

Yes. I’m shocked this poll finds him so favorable in NC yet only tied.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2020, 03:07:41 PM »
Anyone want to do a deep-dive on these polls and see what's going on?  The numbers don't make that much sense if Biden is really 18 points ahead of Trump on favorability in both states.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2020, 03:11:20 PM »
These #s don't make any sense at all
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2020, 03:12:33 PM »

They do make a bit more sense if you expect for polls to be underestimating Biden instead of Trump this time around, perhaps due to over corrections due to 2016.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2020, 03:31:11 PM »
September 11-16

MI
Some other candidate 2%
Would not vote 0%
Not sure 4%

NC
Some other candidate 3%
Would not vote 0%
Not sure 3%
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2020, 03:32:27 PM »
Trump ain't going to win North Carolina if his approval is -8.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2020, 03:33:45 PM »
Uncle Joe will win Michigan by a fair margin. It's pretty obvious that he's such a better candidate than Hillary, given approvals and always above or close to 50%.

North Carolina will be very close, maybe even the closest state, but I have feeling Joe Biden will narrowly take it. It's still the 335 electoral votes map.
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VAR
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« Reply #13 on: September 22, 2020, 03:40:53 PM »
Quote from: GeneralMacArthur on September 22, 2020, 03:07:41 PM
Anyone want to do a deep-dive on these polls and see what's going on?  The numbers don't make that much sense if Biden is really 18 points ahead of Trump on favorability in both states.
Quote from: bilaps on September 22, 2020, 02:29:06 PM
Another +5 in MI with these kind of approval. Polling is weird

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=304722.0

All you need to know about this pollster.
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bilaps
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« Reply #14 on: September 22, 2020, 05:30:07 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on September 22, 2020, 03:32:27 PM
Trump ain't going to win North Carolina if his approval is -8.

There is this chance which democrats like to mention when it's the other way around that if Trump is tied in NC with the sample which has -8 approval, than in a more R friendly sample he is probably ahead by couple of points.
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Tintrlvr
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« Reply #15 on: September 22, 2020, 06:24:26 PM »
Quote from: Alben Barkley on September 22, 2020, 03:05:38 PM
Quote from: kireev on September 22, 2020, 02:26:26 PM
Just based on favorabilities it's pretty clear that Biden has way more room to grow than Trump.

Yes. I’m shocked this poll finds him so favorable in NC yet only tied.

I'd be baffled by someone who said they viewed Trump unfavorably and Biden favorably but ultimately voted for Trump. But the undecideds are relatively high in this poll so maybe it works out and those people are few if any.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: September 22, 2020, 07:18:18 PM »
Biden isnt gonna win more than 300 EC votes due to fact Trump is so close to 50, that's why Collins is leading by 1
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #17 on: September 23, 2020, 05:00:11 AM »
Quote from: 413 on September 22, 2020, 06:24:26 PM
Quote from: Alben Barkley on September 22, 2020, 03:05:38 PM
Quote from: kireev on September 22, 2020, 02:26:26 PM
Just based on favorabilities it's pretty clear that Biden has way more room to grow than Trump.

Yes. I’m shocked this poll finds him so favorable in NC yet only tied.

I'd be baffled by someone who said they viewed Trump unfavorably and Biden favorably but ultimately voted for Trump. But the undecideds are relatively high in this poll so maybe it works out and those people are few if any.

There are most certainly people out there who say "I don't like Trump as a person.  I like Biden, but [insert wedge issue here].  So I have to vote for Trump."

Probably isn't large enough of a group to make any difference, but they're out there. 
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Storr
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« Reply #18 on: September 23, 2020, 12:34:59 PM »
Quote from: President Johnson on September 22, 2020, 03:33:45 PM
Uncle Joe will win Michigan by a fair margin. It's pretty obvious that he's such a better candidate than Hillary, given approvals and always above or close to 50%.

North Carolina will be very close, maybe even the closest state, but I have feeling Joe Biden will narrowly take it. It's still the 335 electoral votes map.
I could see it easily being the closest state (my other guess would be Florida).
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