Spanish apportionment rules maps in the US, set of maps

[Former President tack50]

Ok, so basically I was bored and decided to experiment how things would be if the US used the exact same apportionment process we do. I decided to do only the House for now. Anyways here are the rules:

1) Every state starts with a minimum of 2 House seats
2) All other seats are split up in a proportional basis (basically, divide the US population by 250 and give out the seats according to the population distribution)
3) Apportionment is done in a "continuous" basis (doesn't really matter for this, but I used 2019 population estimates)
4) The total number of seats is capped at 350

I willl be giving 2 sets of results, one for a proportional election (based off the 2018 House election results, using the D'Hondt rule) and one with FPTP maps (which is the more interesting one I think)

And here is the initial apportionment. As you may expect, this kind of apportionment benefits small states (since the minimum is bumped up to 2) and goes against large states

[Former President tack50]

Wyoming

FPTP:



WY-01 (southeast Wyoming):  Trump+38, Safe R
WY-02 (rest of the state): Trump+54, Safe R

Total so far
2 Safe R

Proportional
Republicans: 63.8% (2)
Democrats: 29.8% (0)
Libertarians: 3.5% (0)

Total so far: 2R-0D

While a 1-1 split is most certainly within reach for Dems in a wave, they fell short in 2018.


Vermont

FPTP



VT-01 (Northern Vermont): Clinton+28, Safe D
VT-02 (Southern Vermont):  Clinton+25, Safe D

Total so far:
2 Safe R
2 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 69.2% (2)
Republicans: 26.0% (0)

Almost a mirror image of Wyoming, a 1-1 split is not unthinkable but Republicans failed in 2018

Total so far: 2R-2D


Alaska

FPTP



AK-01 (Anchorage): Trump+1, Tossup
AK-02 (Northern Alaska): Trump+31, Safe R
AK-03 (Southern Alaska): Trump+14, Safe R

Total so far:
4 Safe R
1 Tossup
2 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 53.3% (2)
Democrats: 46.7% (1)

Democrats narrowly lost in here in 2018 and therefore don't get a 2D-1R split. However I think Alaska would almost always get a 2R-1D split anyways.

Total so far: 4R-3D


North Dakota

FPTP



ND-01 (Fargo & Grand Forks): Trump+13, Safe R
ND-02 (Eastern ND): Trump+40, Safe R
ND-03 (Western ND): Trump+55, Safe R

Total so far
7 Safe R
1 Tossup
2 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 60.3% (2)
Democrats: 35.6% (1)

Total so far: 6R-4D

ND would have very boring elections, basically locked into a 2R-1D split forever. Republicans would need just shy of 75% for a clean 3 seat sweep, and Dems need to win to get the 2nd seat.


South Dakota

FPTP



SD-01 (Vermilion & Brandon): Trump+20, Safe R
SD-02 (Eastern SD): Trump+34, Safe R
SD-03 (Western SD): Trump+36, Safe R

Total so far
10 Safe R
1 Tossup
2 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 60.3% (2)
Democrats: 36.0% (1)

Total so far: 8R-5D

Very similar to ND, a guaranteed 2-1 split.


Montana

FPTP



MT-01 (Western MT): Trump+19, Safe R
MT-02 (Central MT): Trump+11, Safe R
MT-03 (Eastern MT): Trump+34, Safe R

Total so far
13 Safe R
1 Tossup
2 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 50.9% (2)
Democrats: 46.2% (1)

Total so far: 10R-6D

[Sol]

This is  a very interesting series!

One nitpick, because I can't stop myself--IIRC the logical dividing line in Vermont is East vs. West along the Green Mountains.

[lfromnj]

This is  a very interesting series!

One nitpick, because I can't stop myself--IIRC the logical dividing line in Vermont is East vs. West along the Green Mountains.

Yup when Vermont was a one party GOP state there used to be a pact to alternate between that line for  the governor's

[TJ in Oregon]

I like the series. It'll be interesting to see how it turns out between the FPTP and proportional systems.

Minor note: As strange as it might seem, the Democrats would have a legitimate shot at those two western Montana seats. Yes, the ticket splitting can be that big in certain places.

[Former President tack50]

Here goes the 2nd set of maps:

Delaware

FPTP



DE-01 (Wilmington): Clinton+33, Safe D
DE-02 (North Delaware): Clinton+22, Safe D
DE-03 (South Delaware): Trump+22, Safe R

Total so far
14 Safe R
1 Tossup
4 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 64.5% (2)
Republicans: 35.5% (1)

Total so far: 11R-8D


Maine

FPTP



ME-01 (Portland): Clinton+21, D+10; Safe D
ME-02 (Augusta): Trump+4, D+1; Tossup
ME-03 (Northern Maine): Trump+10, R+2; Likely R

Total so far
14 Safe R
1 Likely R
2 Tossup
5 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 55.1% (2)
Republicans: 40.1% (1)

Total so far: 12R-10D


Rhode Island

FPTP



RI-01 (Providence): Clinton+46, D+25; Safe D
RI-02 (North Rhode Island): Trump+3, D+2; Tossup
RI-03 (South Rhode Island): Clinton+12, D+7; Safe D

Total so far
14 Safe R
1 Likely R
3 Tossup
7 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 65.0% (2)
Republicans: 34.8% (1)

Total so far: 13R-12D


New Hampshire

FPTP



NH-01 (Dover): Trump+2, R+2; Tossup
NH-02 (Manchester & Nashua): Trump+0; R+1; Tossup
NH-03 (Rest of the state): Clinton+5, D+4; Lean D

Total so far
14 Safe R
1 Likely R
5 Tossup
1 Lean D
7 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 54.5% (2)
Republicans: 43.6% (1)

Total so far: 14R-14D


Hawaii

FPTP



HI-01 (Honolulu): Clinton+36, D+19; Safe D
HI-02 (Rest of Oahu): Clinton+23, D+14; Safe D
HI-03 (Rest of Hawaii): Clinton+36, D+21; Safe D

Total so far
14 Safe R
1 Likely R
5 Tossup
1 Lean D
10 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 75.3% (3)
Republicans: 22.9% (0)

Total so far: 14R-17D


Idaho

FPTP



ID-01 (Boise): Trump+15, R+10; Safe R
ID-02 (Western Idaho): Trump+40, R+21; Safe R
ID-03 (Eastern Idaho): Trump+42, R+27; Safe R

Total so far
17 Safe R
1 Likely R
5 Tossup
1 Lean D
10 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 64.7% (2)
Democrats: 34.8% (1)

Total so far: 16R-18D


West Virginia

FPTP



WV-01 (North WV): R+19; Safe R
WV-02 (East WV): R+21; Safe R
WV-03 (Southwest WV): R+18; Safe R

Total so far
20 Safe R
1 Likely R
5 Tossup
1 Lean D
10 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 58.3% (2)
Democrats: 40.6% (1)

Total so far: 18R-19D

[Former President tack50]

Ok, time for round 3 of this project. We also start with the 4 seaters. Unfortunately this is also where the "boring" crossover point happens (so states tend to have the same amount of seats they currently have):

Nebraska

FPTP



NE-01 (Omaha): Clinton+8, D+1; Lean D
NE-02 (Eastern Nebraska): Trump+31, R+16; Safe R
NE-03 (Lincoln and Central Nebraska): Trump+18, R+10; Safe R
NE-04 (Western Nebraska): Trump+59, R+29; Safe R

Total so far
23 Safe R
1 Likely R
5 Tossup
2 Lean D
10 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 62.0% (3)
Democrats: 38.0% (1)

Total so far: 21R-20D


New Mexico

FPTP



NM-01 (Northwest NM): Clinton+19; D+9; Safe D
NM-02 (Albuquerque): Clinton+17, D+8; Safe D
NM-03 (Eastern NM): Trump+18, R+11; Safe R
NM-04 (Southwest NM): Clinton+9, D+4; Likely D

Total so far
24 Safe R
1 Likely R
5 Tossup
2 Lean D
1 Likely D
12 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 58.2% (3)
Republicans: 38.1% (1)

Total so far: 22R-23D


Kansas

FPTP



KS-01 (Kansas City): Clinton+3, R+3; Tossup
KS-02 (Eastern Kansas): Trump+18, R+10; Safe R
KS-03 (Wichita area): Trump+26, R+15; Safe R
KS-04 (Western Kansas): Trump+46, R+25; Safe R

Total so far
27 Safe R
1 Likely R
6 Tossup
2 Lean D
1 Likely D
12 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 53.6% (2)
Democrats: 44.2% (2)

Total so far: 24R-25D


Mississippi

Note: for the FPTP seats I will ignore the existance of the VRA. If a district happens to be majority minority that is great, but I will not go out of my way to draw such districts. I can and will provide racial data in any district if someone wants though

FPTP



MS-01 (Northwest MS): R+3; Lean R
MS-02 (Eastern MS): R+12; Safe R
MS-03 (Jackson area): R+1; Tossup
MS-04 (Gulf coast): R+22; Safe R

Total so far
26 Safe R
1 Likely R
1 Lean R
6 Tossup
2 Lean D
1 Likely D
12 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 50.2% (2)
Democrats: 42.5% (2)

Total so far: 26R-27D


Arkansas

FPTP



AR-01 (Springdale area): Trump+30; R+18; Safe R
AR-02 (Northeast Arkansas): Trump+39, R+19; Safe R
AR-03 (Little Rock): Trump+10, R+7; Safe R
AR-04 (Southern Arkansas): Trump+30, R+16; Safe R

Total so far
30 Safe R
1 Likely R
1 Lean R
6 Tossup
2 Lean D
1 Likely D
12 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 62.6% (3)
Democrats: 35.2% (1)

Total so far: 29R-28D


Nevada

FPTP



NV-01 (Northern Nevada): Trump+13, R+8; Safe R
NV-02 (Southern Nevada): Clinton+2, D+1; Tossup
NV-03 (North Las Vegas): Clinton+9, D+4; Likely D
NV-04 (South Las Vegas): Clinton+18, D+9; Safe D

Total so far
31 Safe R
1 Likely R
1 Lean R
7 Tossup
2 Lean D
2 Likely D
13 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 51.1% (2)
Republicans: 45.7% (2)

Total so far: 30R-29D


Iowa



IA-01 (Cedar Rapids & Davenport): Clinton+6, D+5; Likely D
IA-02 (Eastern Iowa): Trump+13, R+3; Likely R
IA-03 (Des Moines): Clinton+4, D+2; Lean D
IA-04 (Western Iowa): Trump+35, R+14; Safe R

Total so far
32 Safe R
2 Likely R
1 Lean R
7 Tossup
3 Lean D
3 Likely D
13 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 50.5% (2)
Republicans: 46.5% (2)

Total so far: 32R-31D


Utah

FPTP



UT-01 (Northern Utah): 47 Trump-31 Others-22 Clinton; R+25. Safe R
UT-02 (Salt Lake City): 49 Clinton-29 Trump-23 Others; D+3. Safe D
UT-03 (Rural Utah): 61 Trump-21 Others-18 Clinton; R+31. Safe R
UT-04 (Provo to SLC suburbs):  45 Trump-32 Others-23 Clinton; R+25. Safe R

Total so far
35 Safe R
2 Likely R
1 Lean R
7 Tossup
3 Lean D
3 Likely D
14 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 58.9% (3)
Democrats: 35.5% (1)

Total so far: 35R-32D

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I mean, you can ignore the VRA all you want, but you must be a bit sadistic not to create a majority-Black Safe D district around the Mississippi Delta.

[Former President tack50]

I mean, you can ignore the VRA all you want, but you must be a bit sadistic not to create a majority-Black Safe D district around the Mississippi Delta.

Thing is, from what I can tell, Mississippi seems to have 2 very clear communities that should not be split: the 10 counties in the coast, and the 3 counties that form Jackson metropolitan area

With the map I made, you head south from Jackson and draw one district that way, and draw a second in the coast. Then the remainder I decided to split it east-west; but you could draw it North-south too (but that'd be an R gerrymander imo)

You can of course head north from the Jackson metropolitan area instead, towards the delta, creating a majority black district. However, that forces you to create a diagonal district that, in my opinion is quite awkward. That does create a black and at the very least likely D district (55-45; D+4, 55% black) but I think it looks worse than what I drew:



Since in my map you end up with an R+1 and an R+3 seat; I did not really consider it an R gerrymander (I tend to view 2R-0D-2S as equivalent to 3R-1D) and does not really change things much.

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

I mean, you can ignore the VRA all you want, but you must be a bit sadistic not to create a majority-Black Safe D district around the Mississippi Delta.

Thing is, from what I can tell, Mississippi seems to have 2 very clear communities that should not be split: the 10 counties in the coast, and the 3 counties that form Jackson metropolitan area

With the map I made, you head south from Jackson and draw one district that way, and draw a second in the coast. Then the remainder I decided to split it east-west; but you could draw it North-south too (but that'd be an R gerrymander imo)

You can of course head north from the Jackson metropolitan area instead, towards the delta, creating a majority black district. However, that forces you to create a diagonal district that, in my opinion is quite awkward. That does create a black and at the very least likely D district (55-45; D+4, 55% black) but I think it looks worse than what I drew.

Nah, this does not look worse. Maybe it even looks better. District 2 from your original map is not exactly less awkward than the diagonal district.
Also, I see your point about very clear communities, but I don't know, splitting Hinds from Rankin feels just so fine in my book.

[Former President tack50]

Ok, so with this post we get into the 5 and 6 seater states. This starts boring, tracking RL, but once you get to the 6 seaters you stop tracking real life and the fun begins:

Connecticut

FPTP



CT-01 (Bridgeport): D+9, Safe D
CT-02 (Northwest CT): R+1, Tossup
CT-03 (New Haven): D+8, Safe D
CT-04 (Hartford): D+14, Safe D
CT-05 (Eastern CT): D+4, Likely D

Total so far
35 Safe R
2 Likely R
1 Lean R
8 Tossup
3 Lean D
4 Likely D
17 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 58.6% (3)
Republicans: 37.1% (2)

Total so far: 37R-35D


Oklahoma

FPTP



OK-01 (Oklahoma City): Trump+10, R+9. Likely R
OK-02 (Tulsa): Trump+29, R+17. Safe R
OK-03 (Northwest OK): Trump+52, R+27. Safe R
OK-04 (Lawton to Norman): Trump+39, R+21. Safe R
OK-05 (Eastern OK) Trump+50, R+24. Safe R

Total so far
39 Safe R
3 Likely R
1 Lean R
8 Tossup
3 Lean D
4 Likely D
17 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 62.0% (3)
Democrats: 36.4% (2)

Total so far: 40R-37D

´

Oregon

FPTP



OR-01 (Portland): Clinton+56, D+28. Safe D
OR-02 (Eastern Oregon): Trump+20, R+10. Safe R
OR-03 (Northwest OR): Clinton+17, D+7. Safe D
OR-04 (Salem): Clinton+1, R+2. Tossup
OR-05 (Coastal Oregon): Clinton+1, D+1. Tossup

Total so far
40 Safe R
3 Likely R
1 Lean R
10 Tossup
3 Lean D
4 Likely D
19 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 57.5% (3)
Republicans: 38.0% (2)

Total so far: 42R-40D


Kentucky



KY-01 (Western Kentucky): Trump+42, R+20. Safe R
KY-02 (Louisville): Clinton+6, D+1. Lean D
KY-03 (Northern Kentucky): Trump+35, R+17. Safe R
KY-04 (Central Kentucky): Trump+21, R+12. Safe R
KY-05 (Southeast Kentucky): Trump+62, R+31. Safe R

Total so far
44 Safe R
3 Likely R
1 Lean R
10 Tossup
4 Lean D
4 Likely D
19 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 59.6% (3)
Democrats: 39.1% (2)

Total so far: 45R-42D


Louisiana

FPTP



LA-01 (New Orleans): Clinton+22, D+9. Safe D
LA-02 (Southeast Louisiana): Trump+41, R+16. Safe R
LA-03 (Northeast Louisiana): Trump+40, R+21. Safe R
LA-04 (Baton Rouge & Mississippi river): Trump+4, R+3. Likely R
LA-05 (Western Louisiana): Trump+43, R+23. Safe R
LA-06 (Northern Louisiana): Trump+19, R+11. Safe R

Total so far
48 Safe R
4 Likely R
1 Lean R
10 Tossup
4 Lean D
4 Likely D
20 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 57.2% (4)
Democrats: 37.8% (2)

Total so far: 49R-44D


Alabama



AL-01 (Mobile & Southwest AL): R+13, Safe R
AL-02 (Montgomery & Southeast AL): R+9, Safe R
AL-03 (Tuscaloosa & Western AL): R+20, Safe R
AL-04 (Birmingham): R+4, Likely R
AL-05 (Gadsden & Eastern AL): R+23, Safe R
AL-06 (Huntsville & Northern AL): R+19, Safe R

Total so far
53 Safe R
5 Likely R
1 Lean R
10 Tossup
4 Lean D
4 Likely D
20 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 58.8% (4)
Democrats: 38.9% (2)

Total so far: 53R-46D


South Carolina

FPTP



SC-01 (Greenville): Trump+35, R+19. Safe R
SC-02 (Spartanburg): Trump+36, R+14. Safe R
SC-03 (Columbia): Clinton+1, R+1. Tossup
SC-04 (Border with Georgia): Trump+10, R+6. Safe R
SC-05 (Charleston): Trump+1, R+2. Tossup
SC-06 (Myrtle Beach & Eastern SC): Trump+15, R+7. Safe R

Total so far
57 Safe R
5 Likely R
1 Lean R
12 Tossup
4 Lean D
4 Likely D
20 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 54.3% (3)
Democrats: 44.4% (3)

Total so far: 56R-49D


Minnesota

FPTP



MN-01 (Southern MN): Trump+17, R+6. Safe R
MN-02 (Bloomington): Clinton+4, R+1. Tossup
MN-03 (Minneapolis): Clinton+47,  D+19. Safe D
MN-04 (St. Paul): Clinton+23, D+11. Safe D
MN-05 (St. Cloud): Trump+29, R+13. Safe R
MN-06 (Northern MN): Trump+17, R+5. Safe R

Total so far
60 Safe R
5 Likely R
1 Lean R
13 Tossup
4 Lean D
4 Likely D
22 Safe D

Proportional

Democrats: 55.1% (3)
Republicans: 43.7% (3)

Total so far: 59R-52D


Colorado



CO-01 (Denver): Clinton+44, D+20. Safe D
CO-02 (Boulder & Fort Collins): Clinton+10, D+4. Likely D
CO-03 (North Denver suburbs): Clinton+13, D+6. Safe D
CO-04 (South Denver suburbs): Clinton+2, R+1. Tossup
CO-05 (Colorado Springs & Eastern CO): Trump+28, R+16. Safe R
CO-06 (Pueblo & Western CO): Trump+12, R+6. Safe R

Total so far
62 Safe R
5 Likely R
1 Lean R
14 Tossup
4 Lean D
5 Likely D
24 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 53.4% (3)
Republicans: 43% (3)

Total so far: 62R-55D


Wisconsin

FPTP



WI-01 (Milwaukee): Clinton+36, D+17. Safe D
WI-02 (Kenosha & Waukesha): Trump+17, R+10. Safe R
WI-03 (Madison): Clinton+29, D+15. Safe D
WI-04 (Green Bay & Eastern WI): Trump+22, R+11. Safe R
WI-05 (Central WI): Trump+18, R+7. Safe R
WI-06 (Eau Claire & Northwest WI): Trump+11, R+3. Likely R

Total so far
65 Safe R
6 Likely R
1 Lean R
14 Tossup
4 Lean D
5 Likely D
26 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 53.2% (3)
Republicans: 45.6% (3)

Total so far: 65R-58D

[lfromnj]

Tack you literally have the OKC seat which Democrats hold as Safe R

[Former President tack50]

Tack you literally have the OKC seat which Democrats hold as Safe R

Whoops!

I was going exclusively off Trump% and PVI there; Trump+10 and R+9 looks like a rather safe seat to me (albeit trending D) but yeah I guess Likely R is a better categorization

To be honest I think I probably made similar mistakes in many seats, where I've categorized them as Safe R because of having relatively big R PVIs and Trump margins but would have probably flipped in 2018 anyways because of trends.

[Former President tack50]

Anyways here come the 7 and 8 seaters. And this is where the interest picks up again

Maryland

FPTP



MD-01 (Western Maryland): Trump+9, R+6. Likely R
MD-02 (Eastern Maryland): Trump+20, R+11. Safe R
MD-03 (Baltimore): Clinton+49, D+26. Safe D
MD-04 (Columbia area): Clinton+34, D+15. Safe D
MD-05 (Bethesda area): Clinton+59, D+26. Safe D
MD-06 (Annapolis): Clinton+20, D+9. Safe D
MD-07 (Southern Maryland): Clinton+61, D+31. Safe D

Total so far
66 Safe R
7 Likely R
1 Lean R
14 Tossup
4 Lean D
5 Likely D
31 Safe D

Proportional

Democrats: 65.3% (5)
Republicans: 32.3% (2)

Total so far: 67R-63D


Missouri

FPTP



MO-01 (St. Louis): Clinton+49, D+23. Safe D
MO-02 (St. Louis suburbs): Trump+19, R+11. Safe R
MO-03 (Southeast Missouri): Trump+49, R+22. Safe R
MO-04 (Northern Missouri): Trump+50, R+19. Safe R
MO-05 (Kansas City): Clinton+13, D+6. Safe D
MO-06 (Central Missouri): Trump+38, R+19. Safe R
MO-07 (Southwest Missouri): Trump+48, R+24. Safe R

Total so far
71 Safe R
7 Likely R
1 Lean R
14 Tossup
4 Lean D
5 Likely D
33 Safe D

Proportional

Republicans: 55.1% (4)
Democrats: 42.3% (3)

Total so far: 71R-66D


Indiana



IN-01 (Gary to South Bend): D+6. Safe D
IN-02 (Fort Wayne & Northeast Indiana): R+15. Safe R
IN-03 (Central Indiana): R+18. Safe R
IN-04 (Indianapolis): D+10. Safe D
IN-05 (Eastern Indianapolis Suburbs to Richmond): R+16. Safe R
IN-06 (Western Indianapolis suburbs to Terre Haute): R+15. Safe R
IN-07 (Southern Indiana): R+15. Safe R

Total so far
76 Safe R
7 Likely R
1 Lean R
14 Tossup
4 Lean D
5 Likely D
35 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 55.3% (4)
Democrats: 44.3% (3)

Total so far: 75R-69D


Tennessee

FPTP



TN-01 (East Tennessee): Trump+59, R+29. Safe R
TN-02 (Knoxville): Trump+38, R+21. Safe R
TN-03 (North Central Tennessee): Trump+40, R+21. Safe R
TN-04 (South Central Tennessee): Trump+38, R+19. Safe R
TN-05 (Nashville): Clinton+5, R+1. Tossup
TN-06 (Western Tennessee): Trump+39, R+18. Safe R
TN-07 (Memphis): Clinton+26, D+12. Safe D

Total so far
81 Safe R
7 Likely R
1 Lean R
15 Tossup
4 Lean D
5 Likely D
36 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 59.3% (4)
Democrats: 39.2% (3)

Total so far: 79R-72D


Massachussets



MA-01 (Western Massachussets): Clinton+23, D+13. Safe D
MA-02 (Worcester): Clinton+18, D+6. Safe D
MA-03 (Lowell & Essex County): Clinton+21, D+8. Safe D
MA-04 (Boston): Clinton+64, D+30. Safe D
MA-05 (Western Boston Suburbs): Clinton+41, D+17. Safe D
MA-06 (Southern Boston Suburbs): Clinton+20, D+6. Safe D
MA-07 (Cape Cod): Clinton+9, D+4. Likely D

Total so far
81 Safe R
7 Likely R
1 Lean R
15 Tossup
4 Lean D
6 Likely D
42 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 78.2% (6)
Republicans: 20.0% (1)

Total so far: 80R-78D


Arizona

FPTP



Phoenix inset:



AZ-01 (Tucson): Clinton+19, Sinema+21, D+6. Safe D
AZ-02 (Southern Arizona): Trump+10, McSally+9, R+7. Safe R
AZ-03 (Northern Arizona): Trump+21, McSally+13, R+12. Safe R
AZ-04 (Gilbert & Chandler): Trump+17, McSally+9, R+12. Safe R
AZ-05 (Scottsdale, Tempe & Mesa): Trump+5, Sinema+1, R+7. Lean R
AZ-06 (Peoria, Litchfield Park & Tolleson): Trump+11, McSally+4, R+8. Likely R
AZ-07 (Southern Phoenix): Clinton+33, Sinema+39, D+13. Safe D
AZ-08 (Northern Phoenix & Glendale): Trump+7, Sinema+3, R+7. Lean R

Total so far
84 Safe R
8 Likely R
3 Lean R
15 Tossup
4 Lean D
6 Likely D
44 Safe D

Proportional

Democrats: 50.4% (4)
Republicans: 48.6% (4)

Total so far: 84R-82D


Washington

FPTP



WA-01 (Northeast Washington): Trump+17, R+9. Safe R
WA-02 (Southeast Washington): Trump+11, R+8. Safe R
WA-03 (Western Washington): Trump+1, EVEN. Tossup
WA-04 (North Washington): Clinton+9, D+4. Likely D
WA-05 (Tacoma): Clinton+13, D+6. Safe D
WA-06 (South Seattle Suburbs): Clinton+13, D+5. Safe D
WA-07 (Seattle): Clinton+73, D+35. Safe D
WA-08 (North and East Seattle Suburbs): Clinton+37, D+15. Safe D

Total so far
86 Safe R
8 Likely R
3 Lean R
16 Tossup
4 Lean D
7 Likely D
48 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 62.5% (5)
Republicans: 34.7% (3)

Total so far: 87R-87D

[Former President tack50]

Ok, here is the next set of maps:

Virginia

FPTP



VA-01 (Virginia Beach): Clinton+6, D+2. Likely D
VA-02 (Hampton & Newport News): Clinton+15, D+7. Safe D
VA-03 (Western Virginia): Trump+34, R+16. Safe R
VA-04 (Richmond): Clinton+19, D+6. Safe D
VA-05 (Lynchburg area): Trump+27, R+13. Safe R
VA-06 (Tidewater & Charlottesville): Trump+11, R+7. Safe R
VA-07 (Outer NoVA): Trump+0, R+2. Tossup
VA-08 (Alexandria, Arlington & East Fairfax): Clinton+49, D+20. Safe D
VA-09 (West Fairfax & inner Loudoun): Clinton+29, D+10. Safe D

Total so far
89 Safe R
8 Likely R
3 Lean R
17 Tossup
4 Lean D
8 Likely D
52 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 56.5% (5)
Republicans: 42.4% (4)

Total so far: 91R-92D


New Jersey

FPTP



NJ-01 (Newark & Jersey City): D+32. Safe D
NJ-02 (Bergen County): D+6. Safe D
NJ-03 (Passaic & Outer Essex): D+14. Safe D
NJ-04 (Southern Union & Northern Middlesex): D+15. Safe D
NJ-05 (Northwest New Jersey): R+4. Likely R
NJ-06 (Trenton area): D+8. Safe D
NJ-07 (Monmouth & North Ocean): R+9. Safe R
NJ-08 (Camden area): D+12. Safe D
NJ-09 (Southern New Jersey): R+3. Likely R

Total so far
91 Safe R
9 Likely R
3 Lean R
17 Tossup
4 Lean D
8 Likely D
58 Safe D

Proportional
Democratic: 59.9% (6)
Republican: 38.7% (3)

Total so far: 94R-98D


Michigan

FPTP



MI-01 (Northern Michigan): Trump+24, R+10. Safe R
MI-02 (Grand Rapids): Trump+9, R+6. Safe R
MI-03 (Kalamazoo & Battle Creek): Trump+12, R+6. Safe R
MI-04 (Flint & the Thumb): Trump+7, R+1. Lean R
MI-05 (Lansing): Trump+8, R+3. Likely R
MI-06 (Macomb & St. Clair): Trump+14, R+4. Safe R
MI-07 (most of Oakland, parts of Macomb & Livingston): Trump+10, R+6. Safe R
MI-08 (Ann Arbor & Southeast Michigan): Clinton+5, D+3. Likely D
MI-09 (Detroit & Royal Oak): Clinton+69, D+34. Safe D
MI-10 (Dearborn & Farmington Hills): Clinton+18, D+10. Safe D

Total so far
96 Safe R
10 Likely R
4 Lean R
17 Tossup
4 Lean D
9 Likely D
60 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 52.3% (5)
Republicans: 44.7% (5)

Total so far: 99R-103D


North Carolina

FPTP



NC-01 (Western NC): Trump+22, R+11. Safe R
NC-02 (Charlotte): Clinton+31, D+13. Safe D
NC-03 (Western Charlotte suburbs to northwest NC): Trump+37, R+19. Safe R
NC-04 (Winston-Salem & Greensboro): Clinton+8, D+2. Likely D
NC-05 (Central NC): Trump+37, R+19. Safe R
NC-06 (Durham area): Clinton+25, D+11. Safe D
NC-07 (Raleigh): Clinton+20, D+7. Safe D
NC-08 (Northeast NC): Trump+3, R+2. Lean R
NC-09 (Fayetteville area): Trump+5, R+2. Lean R
NC-10 (Coast): Trump+21, R+12. Safe R

Total so far
100 Safe R
10 Likely R
6 Lean R
17 Tossup
4 Lean D
10 Likely D
63 Safe D

Proportional
Republicans: 50.4% (5)
Democrats: 48.4% (5)

Total so far: 104R-108D


Georgia

FPTP



GA-01 (Fulton County): Clinton+42, Abrams+45, D+17. Safe D
GA-02 (Gwinnett & Walton): Trump+3, Abrams+5, R+6. Tossup
GA-03 (DeKalb, Rockdale & most of Henry): Clinton+49, Abrams+55, D+22. Safe D
GA-04 (Cobb, Douglas & most of Paulding): Trump+2, Abrams+5, R+6. Tossup
GA-05 (Northwest Georgia): Trump+56, Kemp+55, R+30. Safe R
GA-06 (Northeast Georgia): Trump+42, Kemp+40, R+24. Safe R
GA-07 (Southern Atlanta suburbs): Trump+6, Kemp+2, R+4. Likely R
GA-08 (Augusta to Savannah): Trump+4, Kemp+3, R+3. Lean R
GA-09 (Southwest Georgia): Trump+4, Kemp+3, R+2. Lean R
GA-10 (Southeast Georgia): Trump+35, Kemp+37, R+17. Safe R

Total so far
103 Safe R
11 Likely R
8 Lean R
19 Tossup
4 Lean D
10 Likely D
65 Safe D

Proportional
Republican: 52.3% (5)
Democrat: 47.7% (5)

Total so far: 109R-113D

[Former President tack50]

Ohio

FPTP



OH-01 (Cincinnati): R+1, Tossup
OH-02 (Dayton): R+8, Safe R
OH-03 (Columbus): D+12, Safe D
OH-04 (Southern Ohio): R+17, Safe R
OH-05 (Central Ohio): R+9, Safe R
OH-06 (Western Ohio): R+20, Safe R
OH-07 (Toledo & Western shore): R+1, Tossup
OH-08 (Canton): R+10, Safe R
OH-09 (Cleveland): D+19, Safe D
OH-10 (Northeast Ohio): D+2, Tossup
OH-11 (Akron & Lorain): D+1, Tossup

Total so far
108 Safe R
11 Likely R
8 Lean R
23 Tossup
4 Lean D
10 Likely D
67 Safe D

Proportional
Republican: 52.3% (6)
Democrat: 47.0% (5)

Total so far: 115R-118D


Illinois



IL-01 (Will minus Joliet & non-Chicago Southern Cook): Clinton+25, D+12. Safe D
IL-02 (Southern Chicago): Clinton+78, D+40. Safe D
IL-03 (Eastern DuPage & central non-Chigago Cook): Clinton+30, D+12. Safe D
IL-04 (Downtown Chicago): Clinton+71, D+33. Safe D
IL-05 (Northeast Cook): Clinton+48, D+21. Safe D
IL-06 (Lake, McHenry & Boone): Clinton+10, D+2. Likely D
IL-07 (Northwest Cook & Western DuPage): Clinton+18, D+5. Safe D
IL-08 (Kane, Kendall & Joliet): Clinton+13, D+4. Safe D
IL-09 (rural Northern Illinois): Trump+8, R+3. Likely R
IL-10 (West Central Illinois): Trump+16, R+9. Safe R
IL-11 (East Central Illinois): Trump+28, R+13. Safe R
IL-12 (Southern Illinois): Trump+22, R+9. Safe R

Total so far
111 Safe R
12 Likely R
8 Lean R
23 Tossup
4 Lean D
11 Likely D
74 Safe D

Proportional
Democrat: 60.7% (7)
Republican: 38.7% (5)

Total so far: 120R-125D


Pennsylvania

FPTP



PA-01 (Philadelphia): D+36. Safe D
PA-02 (South Philadelphia & Delaware County): D+18. Safe D
PA-03 (North Philadelphia, Bucks County & Abington): D+3. Likely D
PA-04 (Western Chester & most of Montgomery): R+1. Tossup
PA-05 (Allentown Area): R+1. Tossup
PA-06 (Lancaster, Lebanon & York): R+13. Safe R
PA-07 (Scranton Area): R+5. Likely R
PA-08 (Harrisburg & south central Pennsylvania): R+14. Safe R
PA-09 (North central Pennsylvania): R+19. Safe R
PA-10 (Southwest Pennsylvania): R+13. Safe R
PA-11 (Pittsburgh): D+7. Safe D
PA-12 (Northwest Pennsylvania): R+11. Safe R

Total so far
116 Safe R
13 Likely R
8 Lean R
25 Tossup
4 Lean D
12 Likely D
77 Safe D

Proportional
Democratic: 55.0% (7)
Republican: 44.8% (5)

Total so far: 125R-132D

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Shocked to see a district with so much of Butler County is only R+1.

[Former President tack50]

Here are more maps, this time NY:

New York

FPTP



NYC inset:



NY-01 (Long Island): R+1, Tossup
NY-02 (North Nassau): R+3, Lean R
NY-03 (South Nassau & South Queens): D+21, Safe D
NY-04 (Northeast Queens & Eastern Bronx): D+25, Safe D
NY-05 (Northwest Queens): D+28, Safe D
NY-06 (Staten Island and Southwest Brooklyn): R+2, Tossup
NY-07 (East Brooklyn): D+34, Safe D
NY-08 (Northern Manhattan): D+36, Safe D
NY-09 (Southern Manhattan): D+40, Safe D
NY-10 (Central Bronx & South Westchester): D+38, Safe D
NY-11 (Westchester & Rockland): D+7, Safe D
NY-12 (South Upstate): R+1, Tossup
NY-13 (Albany area): D+3, Lean D
NY-14 (Syracuse & Utica to North Upstate): EVEN, Tossup
NY-15 (Central Upstate): R+3, Lean R
NY-16 (Rochester): D+1, Lean D
NY-17 (Buffalo): D+1, Lean D

Total so far
108 Safe R
11 Likely R
10 Lean R
27 Tossup
7 Lean D
10 Likely D
75 Safe D

Proportional
Democrats: 63.3% (12)
Republicans: 27.7% (5)

Worth noting the Conservative Party of New York gets relatively close to getting a seat. They got 3.5% and would have made it with around 5.5%

Total so far: 120R-130D

[Former President tack50]

Here is the next state:

Florida

FPTP

https://davesredistricting.org/join/49e5fe6b-dd6d-4b7e-9c30-02e3216d9894



FL-01 (Southern Miami-Dade): Clinton+15, Nelson+8, D+4. Safe D
FL-02 (Miami & Hialeah): Clinton+29, Nelson+18, D+12. Safe D
FL-03 (Miami-Dade/Broward border): Clinton+46, Nelson+46, D+22. Safe D
FL-04 (Fort Lauderdale): Clinton+35, Nelson+40, D+16. Safe D
FL-05 (Southern Palm Beach County): Clinton+19, Nelson+20, D+9. Safe D
FL-06 (Palm Beach & Port St. Lucie): Trump+7, Scott+4, R+4. Likely R
FL-07 (Cape Coral area): Trump+23, Scott+24, R+13. Safe R
FL-08 (Sarasota area): Trump+18, Scott+15, R+9. Safe R
FL-09 (Saint Petersburg): Trump+4, Nelson+2, R+1. Tossup
FL-10 (Tampa): Clinton+13, Nelson+14, D+5. Safe D
FL-11 (Lakeland area): Trump+8, Scott+10, R+5. Safe R
FL-12 (Palm Bay to Daytona Beach): Trump+17, Scott+13, R+8. Safe R
FL-13 (Jacksonville): Trump+11, Scott+9, R+8. Safe R
FL-14 (Orlando): Clinton+25, Nelson+20, D+10. Safe D
FL-15 (North Orlando suburbs): Trump+8, Scott+6, R+6. Likely R
FL-16 (Gainesville area): Trump+21, Scott+16, R+12. Safe R
FL-17 (Tallahassee & gulf): Trump+16, Scott+10, R+7. Safe R
FL-18 (Panhandle): Trump+38, Scott+35, R+21. Safe R

Total so far
116 Safe R
13 Likely R
10 Lean R
28 Tossup
7 Lean D
10 Likely D
82 Safe D

(139R-28S-99D)

Proportional
Republicans: 52.3% (9)
Democrats: 47.1% (9)

Total so far: 129R-139D

[Former President tack50]

Here is the penultimate state in Texas. I think at some point I must have screwed up the numbers as this won't add up to 350 but still this was a fun project:

FPTP



TX-01 (McAllen to Laredo): Clinton+44, D+22. Safe D
TX-02 (Southern Texas): Clinton+11, D+4. Likely D
TX-03 (Rio Grande Valley): Clinton+20, D+7. Safe D
TX-04 (South San Antonio): Clinton+20, D+8. Safe D
TX-05 (North San Antonio): Trump+8, R+8. Likely R
TX-06 (Austin): Clinton+42, D+17. Safe D
TX-07 (Central Texas): Trump+28, R+18. Safe R
TX-08 (Lubbock, Odessa & Midland): Trump+51, R+28. Safe R
TX-09 (Abilene & Northwest Texas): Trump+63, R+33. Safe R
TX-10 (Denton): Trump+24, R+17. Safe R
TX-11 (Fort Worth): Trump+4. R+5, Lean R
TX-12 (Collin): Trump+23, R+17. Safe R
TX-13 (Dallas): Clinton+35, D+13. Safe D
TX-14 (Arlington, Irving & Carrollton): Clinton+13, D+3. Safe D
TX-15 (Garland, Mesquite & South DFW suburbs): Trump+8, R+6. Likely R
TX-16 (Northeast Texas): Trump+52, R+27. Safe R
TX-17 (Waco, Killeen & College Station): Trump+31, R+18. Safe R
TX-18 (Southeast Texas): Trump+44, R+23. Safe R
TX-19 (Gulf Coast): Trump+31, R+18. Safe R
TX-20 (Fort Bend & West Houston suburbs): Clinton+0, R+5. Lean D
TX-21 (North Houston suburbs): Trump+34, R+23. Safe R
TX-22 (West Houston): Clinton+22, D+5. Safe D
TX-23 (Downtown Houston): Clinton+42, D+17. Safe D
TX-24 (East Houston): Clinton+11, D+1. Safe D

Total so far
126 Safe R
15 Likely R
11 Lean R
28 Tossup
8 Lean D
11 Likely D
91 Safe D


Proportional
Republicans: 50.4% (12)
Democrats: 47.0% (12)

Total so far: 141R-151D

[Former President tack50]

And here comes the final state in California:

California

FPTP



San Francisco inset



Los Angeles inset



CA-01 (Imperial to Chula Vista): Clinton+15, D+4. Safe D
CA-02 (San Diego): Clinton+38, D+15. Safe D
CA-03 (North San Diego suburbs): Clinton+2, R+4. Tossup
CA-04 (Riverside city): Clinton+14, D+5. Safe D
CA-05 (San Bernardino, Rancho Cucamonga & Ontario): Clinton+29, D+12. Safe D
CA-06 (Outer Riverside & Calimesa): Clinton+1, R+2. Tossup
CA-07 (Southern Orange): Clinton+2, R+4. Tossup
CA-08 (Santa Ana & Huntington Beach): Clinton+16, D+4. Safe D
CA-09 (Anaheim to La Habra Heights): Clinton+20, D+5. Safe D
CA-10 (Covina): Clinton+33, D+13. Safe D
CA-11 (Long Beach & Compton): Clinton+52, D+24. Safe D
CA-12 (Pasadena to Huntington Park): Clinton+59, D+27. Safe D
CA-13 (Rolling Hill Estates to Santa Monica): Clinton+53, D+24. Safe D
CA-14 (Southwest Los Angeles): Clinton+67, D+31. Safe D
CA-15 (East Los Angeles & Glendale): Clinton+62, D+30. Safe D
CA-16 (North Los Angeles & Burbank): Clinton+52, D+24. Safe D
CA-17 (South Ventura & a bit of Los Angeles): Clinton+24, D+8. Safe D
CA-18 (Santa Clarita to Victorville): Trump+1, R+3. Tossup
CA-19 (Santa Barbara to Salinas): Clinton+25, D+10. Safe D
CA-20 (Bakersfield & the desert): Trump+12, R+9. Safe R
CA-21 (Fresno): Clinton+1, R+2. Tossup
CA-22 (Central Valley North): Trump+2, R+3. Lean R
CA-23 (San Francisco): Clinton+71, D+34. Safe D
CA-24 (Silicon Valley & Santa Cruz): Clinton+54, D+24. Safe D
CA-25 (San Jose): Clinton+53, D+24. Safe D
CA-26 (Hayward & Fremont): Clinton+49, D+22. Safe D
CA-27 (San Joaquín & East Contra Costa): Clinton+22, D+9. Safe D
CA-28 (Berkeley): Clinton+70, D+34. Safe D
CA-29 (Sacramento): Clinton+32, D+13. Safe D
CA-30 (North Sacramento suburbs & rurals): Trump+11, R+8. Safe R
CA-31 (Santa Rosa to Solano County): Clinton+46, D+21. Safe D
CA-32 (North California): Clinton+9, D+4. Likely D

Total so far
128 Safe R
15 Likely R
12 Lean R
33 Tossup
8 Lean D
12 Likely D
114 Safe D

(134D-33S-155R)

Proportional

Democrats: 63.6% (21)
Republican: 34.1% (11)

Total so far: 152R-172D

[Coastal Elitist]

That 32nd is awful