IA - Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register: TIE

[DaleCooper]

Don't you love it when you're tied in a state you won by nine points in the previous election?

The Trump campaign is playing 4D chess.

[wbrocks67]

Favorables:
Biden 43/51 (-8, was 45/50)
Trump 48/49 (-1, was 45/52)

Curious that the toplines are about the same as June, yet Trump's favorable went from -7 to -1. Makes me think this may be a slightly R-skewing sample. Given the events of the past few months, I find it hard to believe it swing that much in his favor.

[VAR]

Favorables:
Biden 43/51 (-8, was 45/50)
Trump 48/49 (-1, was 45/52)

Curious that the toplines are about the same as June, yet Trump's favorable went from -7 to -1. Makes me think this may be a slightly R-skewing sample. Given the events of the past few months, I find it hard to believe it swing that much in his favor.

Approval of Trump’s handling of COVID went from -8 to -10, however.

[wbrocks67]

Favorables:
Biden 43/51 (-8, was 45/50)
Trump 48/49 (-1, was 45/52)

Curious that the toplines are about the same as June, yet Trump's favorable went from -7 to -1. Makes me think this may be a slightly R-skewing sample. Given the events of the past few months, I find it hard to believe it swing that much in his favor.

Approval of Trump’s handling of COVID went from -8 to -10, however.

This is true, which makes it all the more weirder that his fav rating jumped. If we were talking like -7 to -5 or something, that's totally believable... but to jump 6%... weird.

[redjohn]

Absolutely horrible for Trump. This is the equivalent of HRC heading into her re-election with VA tied with a high-quality pollster, to put in perspective how deep Trump is in trouble.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Favorables:
Biden 43/51 (-8, was 45/50)
Trump 48/49 (-1, was 45/52)

Curious that the toplines are about the same as June, yet Trump's favorable went from -7 to -1. Makes me think this may be a slightly R-skewing sample. Given the events of the past few months, I find it hard to believe it swing that much in his favor.

Approval of Trump’s handling of COVID went from -8 to -10, however.

This is true, which makes it all the more weirder that his fav rating jumped. If we were talking like -7 to -5 or something, that's totally believable... but to jump 6%... weird.

It also goes against every other bit of polling which showed Biden's favorability surging after the conventions while Trump's remaining stagnant.

[wbrocks67]

Favorables:
Biden 43/51 (-8, was 45/50)
Trump 48/49 (-1, was 45/52)

Curious that the toplines are about the same as June, yet Trump's favorable went from -7 to -1. Makes me think this may be a slightly R-skewing sample. Given the events of the past few months, I find it hard to believe it swing that much in his favor.

Approval of Trump’s handling of COVID went from -8 to -10, however.

This is true, which makes it all the more weirder that his fav rating jumped. If we were talking like -7 to -5 or something, that's totally believable... but to jump 6%... weird.

It also goes against every other bit of polling which showed Biden's favorability surging after the conventions while Trump's remaining stagnant.

Yeah, I'd like to see the crosstabs out of curiosity, especially with Biden winning Independents by 13% too. I wonder if it's a wonky sample or like we've seen in some other states where particularly young people say they are "unfavorable" of Biden but are still voting for him.

[Sir Mohamed]

Good, considering how terrible Biden did there in the caucus ...

Pete Buttigieg would be leading Trump by 15 points there right now.

Primary results are meaningless in a GE. Trump lost the WI GOP primary in April 2016 while the state later became key to his upset victory.

Anyway a good poll for Biden. Still think he'll fail to win IA, but there's going to be a significant shift.

[Gass3268]

If Iowa is even closed to tied, it means MN, NE-02, and WI are gone for Trump.

[DrScholl]

The pandemic hit Iowa hard. In March this same pollster had Trump up 10, so he's lost 4% and Biden has gained 6% since then. What will probably happen in November is that Eastern Iowa will swing back Democratic and the Des Moines metro area will swing hard toward Biden. Whether it is enough or not will remain to be seen, but Iowa is still a battleground.

[Brittain33]

Biden is outrunning his approval by 4 points. That’s a great sign for him.

[WD]

If Trump only wins Iowa by 1 or less, than Ernst likely loses.

[EastOfEden]

IOWA ELASTICITY

More seriously though...Ohio/Iowa 2020 is Indiana/Missouri 2008. The unexpectedly Democratic two states, and the one that people expected to flip less votes more D.

[redjohn]

Based on conventional 2016 wisdom, you'd expect to see near double-digit margins for Biden in more Democratic-friendly midwestern states if IA was tied.

Interestingly, IA's gap with WI was larger in 2016 than any recent election (IA voted almost 9% to the right of WI, while in 2012 it voted just 1% to the right of WI). Comparing current polling averages, IA is just 5% to the right of WI this cycle. I'm not so sure the gap this election between IA and neighboring states will be so large compared to 2016. I could see IA just barely going to Trump and Biden winning by a few points in WI and MN.

[BigSerg]

658 likely voters
ok...

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

658 likely voters
ok...

Nothing new for Selzer, tbf.

[redjohn]

658 likely voters
ok...

Larger sample size doesn't equal more accuracy. I'd trust Selzer, which got Trump's 2016 margin (and the trends) nearly perfect when other polls were far off.

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

Oh s**t.
Keep in mind this is coming from the Gold Standard of Iowa polling.

If at all true, Trump should give up.

[BigSerg]

Oh s**t.
Keep in mind this is coming from the Gold Standard of Iowa polling.

If at all true, Trump should give up.

Spoiler...is not true.

[Paul Biya isn’t going far enough]

Oh s**t.
Keep in mind this is coming from the Gold Standard of Iowa polling.

If at all true, Trump should give up.

Spoiler...is not true.

It’s possible, but we don’t have any evidence for that.

[DrScholl]

Oh s**t.
Keep in mind this is coming from the Gold Standard of Iowa polling.

If at all true, Trump should give up.

Spoiler...is not true.

It's over, Sergei. And it's none of your business anyway since you admitted that you don't even live in this country.

[tagimaucia]

The reason Iowa will be more elastic than a bunch of other states this fall is that... its extremely white.  Whites have swung to the left post-2016 much more significantly than non-whites.

[cvparty]

Favorables:
Biden 43/51 (-8, was 45/50)
Trump 48/49 (-1, was 45/52)

interesting movement, seems counterintuitive

[Storr]

Tie-owa

[Eraserhead]

Good, considering how terrible Biden did there in the caucus ...

Pete Buttigieg would be leading Trump by 15 points there right now.

lol, sure he would. I guess Bernie would be leading him by 16% then.